Linux Breaks 5% Desktop Share in U.S., Signaling Open-Source Surge Against Windows and macOS : linux

[–] blarghly@lemmy.world 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Here is as close as I could find to the source data. Unfortunately, everything is listed in terms of "market share" which is great for "back slaps for the boys", but less great for generating hypotheses for actual causes. What I would like is the raw numbers - what were the total devices for each OS?

My bets for what are driving this change, from least to most likely:

Least likely: the average user, who is a lazy dumbass and knows nothing about OS's, has educated themselves on open source operating systems and has decided to throw off the shackles of their corporate, closed-source overlords, and installed a complicated operating system they've never used before onto their home desktop/laptop (which they never use) using a flash drive (which is hidden in the junk drawer where they haven't seen it for 7 years).
Some small tech-based businesses switched from windows to unix-based systems for their desktops. Mostly, this means now everyone is using MacBooks, but they gave in to a few developers who wanted linux-based machines.
Existing Linux users are finding the platform more stable for a daily driver, and are letting their windows machines go dark as the need to use them diminishes.
Steam deck (caveat - does this count as a desktop OS? I kinda doubt it.)
This has nothing to do with Linux. Windows users aren't switching to open source operating systems. They are switching to mobile devices. The average user is simply leaving their windows home laptop in the closet somewhere, and without even noticing, has transitioned to using phones and tablets as their sole devices for day to day computing. Windows isn't really losing market share to Linux - it is losing market share to Android and iOS. Usage of windows machines drops off because windows is an operating system for average users, who don't care about computers that much. Linux users, on the other hand, are much more likely to be "computer people" who like to do things like develop software - a task which can only really be accomplished in a desktop environment. So the total number of Linux desktops stays stable, while the number of windows machines drops off -> "increased" Linux market share.

[–] panicnow@lemmy.world 13 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Here is a different (in my opinion probably better) source: https://analytics.usa.gov/

It also shows Linux above 5%. I agree that most people are switching to phone and/or tablet, but: the total devices are increasing AND the total number of phone/tablet devices are increasing AND the linux share is increasing

I would expect that as the denominator (all devices which includes an ever increasing number of phone/tablet) increases that Windows, mac and linux would decrease. I am surprised (and happy) that Linux is increasing!

[–] ClassyHatter@sopuli.xyz 2 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

That site shows OS usage on all platforms, mobile and TV included. If you select "current calendar year" as the time frame (to smooth out short term changes), the total desktop OS (Windows, Mac, Linux, Chrome OS) usage is about 50%, Linux usage is about 6%. 6% out of 50% is 12%. So, according to that site, Linux usage is about 12% if you consider only desktop OSes.

[–] panicnow@lemmy.world 2 points 10 hours ago

That is my naive reading of the data also. And it makes me very happy.

[–] blarghly@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Hmmm.... Interesting! Maybe I'm mistaken

[–] panicnow@lemmy.world 1 points 10 hours ago

Regardless of right and wrong you made interesting content for Lemmy!

[–] ScoffingLizard@lemmy.dbzer0.com 14 points 1 day ago (5 children)

Can we also have an open source surge against Android, with valid providers in all countries?

[–] WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works 3 points 19 hours ago

I think android would be a better base to build on. don't look at their messy kernel, but the userspace. rip out the brainded, user-hostile limitations that google added in recent years, or reimplement them better, and it's pretty good.

sure continue pmos development, and plasma mobile and other components, but don't just ditch out a system that has worked well for so many time and been developed by lots of people by a company who has poured in lots of money

[–] rumba@lemmy.zip 6 points 1 day ago

We totally can, but not yet. Postmarket is trying hard AF.

The whole Voice/SMS/VoLTE/DataLTE side of things is proprietary, so they're reverse engineering it, but it's painfully slow. Probably once they crack it open, the industry will try to protect it behind encryption and DRM.

[–] possiblylinux127@lemmy.zip 5 points 1 day ago

I personally like Android

What we need is better AOSP

[–] blarghly@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago

No, because the "surge" in market share is almost certainly driven not by the average user's love of open source software, but by the average user simply letting their laptop die as they switch to phones and tablets as their sole computing devices. Windows users aren't becoming Linux users. They are becoming Android users.

[–] PlexSheep@infosec.pub 1 points 1 day ago

The year of the Linux desktop isn't as interesting anymore. It all sort of works good enough for most people not to need to care now.

What we need is the year of the Linux phone. And it think that we will have to still wait a long time for it. And no, Google/Linux does not count.

[–] illusionist@lemmy.zip 139 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (5 children)

Looking forward, analysts predict Linux could hit 7% by 2027 if trends continue, driven by AI integrations in distributions like those from Canonical

Sure. That must be the reason.

[–] apotheotic@beehaw.org 5 points 1 day ago

People gagging so hard on the AI dick that they try to reason that people going to open source are doing it for AI... What a world

[–] arcterus@piefed.blahaj.zone 60 points 2 days ago

Gotta shove AI into everything to prevent the bubble from collapsing.

[–] Ulrich@feddit.org 4 points 1 day ago

Yeah Windows better hurry up and get some AI integration!

[–] djsoren19@lemmy.blahaj.zone 24 points 2 days ago

certainly not like I specifically switched over to avoid having an AI automatically launch on start-up without my permission.

[–] ikidd@lemmy.world 15 points 2 days ago

Glad they mentioned distros to avoid for their AI integration.

[–] guywithoutaname@lemmy.world 7 points 1 day ago

I think a big part of this is PC builders choosing an OS. There is so much content on YouTube about switching to Linux, and people have experience with the Steam Deck as well, which also factors in.

[–] JackbyDev@programming.dev 4 points 1 day ago

That's me now! Yayyy!

[–] TootSweet@lemmy.world 60 points 2 days ago (5 children)

Is it... dare I say it... the year of the Linux desktop?

[–] mintiefresh@piefed.ca 7 points 1 day ago

Always has been! 🚀🔫

[–] Zachariah@lemmy.world 17 points 1 day ago

🌎👨‍🚀🔫👨‍🚀

[–] BeardedGingerWonder@feddit.uk 45 points 2 days ago

Well it's fucked now, I thought we all agreed not to say it and see if it made any difference

[–] MyTurtleSwimsUpsideDown@fedia.io 23 points 2 days ago (3 children)

Shhhhhh! You’ll jinx it!

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[–] BigTrout75@lemmy.world 13 points 1 day ago (8 children)

Okay Linux users, no snark about this distro is better than that one. We're all just one happy family.

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[–] harbard@fedia.io 31 points 2 days ago (10 children)

I’m just removed, but I had to put windows on one of my machines for the first time in just over 10 years (since I was a kid) and I absolutely fucking hate it. slow ass, bloated, clunky ass OS. garbage software.

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[–] pressedhams@lemmy.blahaj.zone 37 points 2 days ago (9 children)

I just made the switch on my daily driver yesterday to Endeavor OS! Am I allowed to say I use Arch btw?

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[–] Lemminary@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

Yup! Just installed it on my laptop after several tries running into bugs during install. My desktop is next, but I'm not ready for the headaches of figuring out a dual-boot yet. I'm mentally preparing for it, though, so fingers crossed.

So I might as well ask beforehand: Does anyone have a preferred tutorial for it? I prefer a recommendation to going in blind.

[–] WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works 3 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago)

I don't think it needs a tutorial, it's automatic. but some advice:

don't delete any partitions, shrink them if you need space. who knows if windows needs it to boot
either have 2 ESP partitions (requires motherboard support), or use a different disk for linux. if windows and linux share an ESP, windows updates can somehow fuck up the linux boot chain, which is wonderful because everything is placed in per-OS directories. you don't have to order from amazon
disable fast startup in windows (control panel, energy settings, what does the power button do menu), because it's hibernation every time
disable hibernation, or handle with care. you shouldn't boot linux while windows is hibernated: changes the ESP and windows filesystems might haven't been written completely, also windows will do unpredictable things if these get changed while it's hibernated. linux kernel updates and efibootmgr changes could also make windows to drop its hibernated state and not load it
if you use multiple disks, consider creating a linux filesystem there. ext4, btrfs, whatever, former is fine if you don't know the difference. ntfs filesystems can be accessed well (except symbolic links?), but it's slow, cpu-heavy because of an implementation detail that makes it maintainable

[–] dajoho@sh.itjust.works 5 points 1 day ago

Hello. Not really a tutorial but a bit of advice: get a new internal SSD from Amazon and install it on that, leaving your Windows drive alone. It is a lot less of a headache if Linux is on a dedicated drive.

[–] lvxferre@mander.xyz 14 points 2 days ago

Looking forward, analysts predict Linux could hit 7% by 2027 if trends continue, driven by AI integrations in distributions like those from Canonical

Or rather, by their optionality. Some people want those tools, some don't want to touch them with a 3m pole; Linux can appease to both, unlike Windows is doing.

[–] circuitfarmer@lemmy.sdf.org 13 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Dozens of us!!

...but this is actually good news. I'm glad to hear it.

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[–] uawarebrah@sh.itjust.works 20 points 2 days ago (7 children)

This is really market share against Microsoft, not Mac. For good reason too, Microsoft is working very hard to ruin their company. They’re losing a lot of ground to Mac as well, especially in the small business sector where many things are web based now anyways. Run an MSP and we’ve had quite a few clients get fed up with inconsistent updates and repeated dumb problems.. looking at you WSD and printing.

[–] possiblylinux127@lemmy.zip 2 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

They went from 98% to 70%

70% is a lot but the completion is starting to slowly gain up. If companies like Google and Apple made something good Microsoft would be in serious trouble.

[–] Mio@feddit.nu 1 points 11 hours ago

Apple did by releasing ARM based CPUs for desktop. This means they also change to MAC OS. Hence no longer 98% market share.

Now the future is ARM, desktop, laptop and mobile. Windows have hard time bringing over all their legacy software over to ARM. Their legacy compability is their biggest strength that they now have to get rid of or rebuild.

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