This in an opinion piece by Yuliia Bond, a refugee from Ukraine who has been living in Caerphilly, Wales, since 2022.
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After more than a century of Labour dominance, the political landscape of Wales has fundamentally changed [the Labour Party lost heavily in the recent elections to the Senedd, the Welsh Parliament , while the right-wing Reform Party party surged].
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This was not only a normal democratic swing.
It was also the result of a much deeper emotional and informational transformation that has been building quietly across society for years and social media played a massive role in accelerating it.
And maybe some people will think I’m exaggerating this. I genuinely hope I am. But coming from Ukraine probably makes me much more sensitive to changes in public language, disinformation and emotional radicalisation than the average person here.
People from my part of the world do not really assume democratic stability is permanent anymore.
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In the 2024 general election, Reform UK won 20.3% in Caerphilly. One year later, in the 2025 Caerphilly Senedd by-election, Reform jumped to 36%. That is a 15.7 percentage point increase in barely over a year.
Then during the 2026 Senedd election campaign, final constituency models for Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni projected Reform around 31-35% of the vote, directly competing with Plaid while Labour collapsed dramatically in former Valleys strongholds.
That is not “just a protest vote” anymore. That is a structural political realignment. And it did not happen in a vacuum.
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Modern political conflict increasingly operates through information warfare
People in the UK often still imagine “disinformation” as something abstract. Something foreign. Something extreme. Something only relevant during wars.
But one thing Ukraine understood very quickly is that modern conflicts are fought not only on physical battlefields, but also inside digital information spaces.
Russia weaponised disinformation for years before tanks crossed borders. Emotional narratives spread faster than factual corrections. Algorithms rewarded outrage. False stories repeated until they emotionally felt true. Trust slowly eroded. Society polarised.
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Ukraine realised very quickly that defending democracy was not only the responsibility of soldiers. So society mobilised. Not only the military. Ordinary people. Researchers. Teachers. Journalists. Volunteers. Students. Community organisers. Online investigators. Digital activists.
Ukraine created a Digital Army, but beyond cyber operations there was also something much deeper: a society-wide understanding that information itself had become strategically important.
People tracked propaganda. Reported manipulation.Countered false narratives. Protected vulnerable communities. Strengthened digital literacy.Built civic resilience.
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Because many people here still underestimate the danger.
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Modern propaganda looks far more ordinary ... Facebook comments ... TikTok clips ... Emotionally manipulative headlines ... Rage-bait videos ... Out-of-context crime stories ... “Someone I know said…”
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And over time, those narratives emotionally reshape political reality itself.
Can’t get housing? Migrants.
Public services struggling? Migrants.
Crime? Migrants.
Economic insecurity? Migrants.
National decline? Migrants.
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And this is why social media matters so much. Because algorithms are not designed to reward truth. They reward emotional engagement. Fear spreads faster than nuance. Anger spreads faster than statistics.Outrage spreads faster than context.
A person can now live in an area with relatively little migration, yet consume hours of emotionally charged immigration content every single week online.
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Social media no longer only shapes opinions – it increasingly shapes identity
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This is not only about Reform voters
And this is important to say clearly. I do not think every Reform voter is racist. That explanation is intellectually lazy and emotionally convenient.
Many people are genuinely struggling. Communities genuinely feel abandoned. Public services are under pressure.
People are exhausted financially and emotionally. Many towns across Wales genuinely do feel forgotten.
The anger itself is often real. But modern populism is extremely effective at redirecting that anger toward emotionally convenient targets. That is the real danger.
Because instead of discussing housing policy, austerity, economic inequality, underinvestment, collapse of local journalism, long-term industrial decline, or failures of governance, society becomes emotionally organised around permanent blame.
And once politics becomes psychologically based on outrage and identity rather than problem-solving, democratic culture itself starts weakening.
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Wales still has a choice
But this situation is not hopeless. And the answer is not censorship. Nor is it dismissing everyone who voted Reform as evil. That usually makes polarisation worse.
What Wales urgently needs now is democratic resilience.
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What should actually happen now?
𝟭. 𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶-𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽𝘀 ...
𝟮. 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ...
𝟯. 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗹𝘀𝗵 𝗷𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗺 ...
𝟰. 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗲 ...
𝟱. 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀-𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 ...
𝟲. 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 – 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 “𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲” ...
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Because societies do not suddenly become divided overnight.
Usually they become divided by one emotionally manipulative headline, one algorithm, one rumour and one dehumanising narrative at a time, until eventually people stop seeing each other as neighbours at all.
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