Europe

The year 2025 was the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since 2022, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) said today in its monthly update on civilian harm.

HRMMU verified that conflict-related violence in Ukraine in 2025 killed 2,514 civilians and injured 12,142. The total number of killed and injured civilians in 2025 was 31 per cent higher than in 2024 (2,088 killed; 9,138 injured) and 70 per cent higher than in 2023 (1,974 killed; 6,651 injured).

The vast majority of casualties verified by HRMMU in 2025 occurred in government-controlled territory from attacks launched by Russian armed forces (97 per cent; 2,395 killed and 11,751 injured).

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In October 2025, Russian armed forces resumed large-scale, coordinated strikes on energy facilities nationwide, causing emergency power outages and scheduled power cuts across the country ... [The resulting power] outages, which lasted for several days, severely affected residents, particularly people in vulnerable situations, by disrupting access to electricity, water and heating, as well as limiting the ability to preserve and prepare food and to use elevators in multi-storey buildings.

Attacks on energy infrastructure persisted and caused prolonged power outages as temperatures dropped in January 2026.

“The sharp increase in long-range attacks and the targeting of Ukraine’s national energy infrastructure mean that the consequences of the war are now felt by civilians far beyond the frontline,” [head of HRMMU Danielle] Bell said. “With temperatures now down to minus 15 degrees Celsius, disruptions to electricity, water and heating are placing civilians across the country at heightened risk.”

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Archived

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Japan's PM Takaichi Sanae and her Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni at the Prime Minister's Office agreed to elevate bilateral ties. They decided to strengthen collaboration to build resilient supply chains and set up a body to discuss cooperation in space.

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At the meeting, the leaders agreed to elevate the two countries' relations to a "special strategic partnership" and promote cooperation in a broad range of fields.

That includes security, in which they confirmed that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Italian military will conduct joint training. Japan and Italy are also working with Britain on the joint development of a next-generation fighter jet. Takaichi and Meloni agreed to accelerate cooperation on the project.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45605798

Australians love hopping over to Europe [and Europeans over to Australia] for a holiday, but actually moving there isn’t so easy, at least for now.

That could soon change, with the European Union offering to make it easier for Australians to live and work across the bloc as part of a long-awaited trade deal with Canberra, sources familiar with the proposal say.

The plan would make it simpler for Australians to take up work in EU member states without needing to secure employment beforehand, with the same rules applying to Europeans heading to Australia.

Four-year limits have reportedly been floated, along with potential settlement pathways, one European source said.

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The Albanese Government is weighing the offer, with Australian officials noting it could help fill labour shortages in sectors with comparable training standards, such as construction.

NewsWire reports the initiative was presented as a “sweetener” to bring Canberra over the line on a free-trade agreement.

A majority of EU nations last week backed a trade deal with a five-member bloc in South America, ending 25 years of talks and fuelling optimism that an agreement with Australia could be next.

European insiders said a pact with Canberra now ranks as Brussels’ “top priority,” with one adding it was “the next cab off the rank.”

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Archived

• China is systematically embedding itself in global renewable energy supply chains, connected devices and European energy system operators. In an unstable geo-political environment characterised by weaponised dependencies, this risk has become unacceptable.
• The EU must reconcile its renewable energy ambitions with the risks of over-dependence on China. This requires targeted public procurement for defence-related needs, notably in solar PV, alongside selective trade restrictions in wind power and safeguards for emerging green hydrogen and synthetic fuel industries.
• There is a growing cyber threat linked to Chinese-made solar inverters, underscoring the need for a ‘Made in Europe’ requirement for critical infrastructure. The EU should phase out and exclude Chinese components from Connecting Europe Facility for Energy (CEF-E) funded cross-border projects.

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[China] controlls a large part of the global renewable energy supply chain [while] Chinese state companies have also been investing in European utilities and grid operators, which carries similar risks – especially for transmission system operators (TSOs).

Chinese state-linked companies now own significant stakes in the system operators REN (Portugal), Terna through CDP Reti (Italy), Creos (Luxembourg), Enermalta (Malta) and IPTO/ADMIE (Greece). Broader efforts to acquire stakes in system operators in Spain, Germany and the UK have been blocked by national governments, often on national security grounds.

While there has been a considerable drop-off in investments by Chinese energy companies since the late 2010s, as well as greater scrutiny of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in general, the legacy of Chinese involvement in the energy system persists.

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Controlling the on-off switch

The risks posed by Chinese inverters to Europe’s energy system echo earlier concerns about Huawei’s role in 5G telecoms networks. There do appear to be legitimate grounds for concern about Chinese components this time in the energy system. Solar Power Europe has noted that cybersecurity protocols within the EU, notably the NIS 2 directive, are sufficient for utilities, but do not apply to smaller generators such as rooftop solar panels. In effect, this means a cybersecurity risk in an increasingly relevant but vulnerable sector. For example, in the Netherlands, rooftop solar accounts for 15-16% of total electricity generation capacity.

Considering that the EU also has its own substantial inverter industry, and that some services such as ‘scrubbing’ of inverters are available (and are already utilised by several European utilities), there appears little reason to maintain this risk. This is especially problematic for solar installations with military relevance, where Chinese technology is commonly used.

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Equally, some of the risks associated with Chinese inverters, such as internet connectivity and their reliance on cloud servers, also apply to European-made inverters, underscoring that cybersecurity, rather than country of origin alone, is the central issue. Such concerns are also relevant to other connected devices that increasingly underpin the energy system, from smart meters to smart heating. Nevertheless, additional risks persist, as Chinese producers are legally obliged, under article 7 of China’s 2017 National Intelligence Law, to share product information with the state.

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Recommendations for Europe

Public procurement tools should be employed to ensure a minimum level of production within the EU to service high-risk sectors. Public procurement tools would also be most effective if paired with targeted investment in R&D, such as in perovskite solar cells, focusing on specialised production and future technologies rather than directly competing with Chinese industrial dominance [...] The EU has considerable strengths at its disposal in the size of its market, which it should be much more active in employing against China. In areas where Europe remains competitive and where its market weight is vital to Chinese exporters, restrictive trade measures should be enforced at both national and EU level.

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A consistent security premium should be applied to wind turbines, as is already the case in some Member States. With China already built into the supply chain through its dominance of permanent magnets, efforts to ensure the competitiveness of the European wind industry will have to move in parallel with measures to ensure supply of critical minerals in Europe. This dependency can be managed, especially by building on Europe’s strong recycling capacity for magnets and batteries.

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For hydrogen and SAF, the EU is already a major market and will become a more important one in the future. Given their significant military relevance, supply chains in these sectors must not become dependent on China. In these areas, the Commission should deploy robust protective trade measures to shield Europe’s nascent industries.

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Regarding inverters [...] there are clear risks both for the supply chain and also from potential cybersecurity infiltration. However, both risks are manageable. There is a strong argument for a ‘made in Europe’ strategy for inverters, an area where the EU already has a strong market share spread over several Member States. For high-risk sectors, including grid-scale projects and military applications, such inverters should be employed as a matter of policy, even at higher cost. By contrast, some parts of the solar sector present lower levels of risk, allowing greater discretion over whether to use Chinese-made – and potentially vulnerable – inverters. For example, where generation is kept separate from the grid and risk is borne entirely by the user, who can make a choice between short-term cost and long-term disruption. For installations connected to the grid, such as rooftop solar, grid operators should be responsible for assessing the potential risk to the system and for setting clear eligibility criteria for solar installations linked to the grid via inverters.

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The EU should adopt a coordinated approach to define a single EU-wide strategy for future Chinese investment in TSOs. Individual Member States should also outline clear procurement guidelines for Chinese energy technologies, particularly in military-relevant energy infrastructure. Given the scale of current grid expansion, the risks of infiltration and influence over decisions on future planning are simply too high. The Commission should therefore incorporate security criteria into future Connecting Europe Facility for Energy (CEF-E) funding to limit the involvement of Chinese actors.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/49098561

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Many observers of Britain’s technology scene rue losing DeepMind to Google in 2014. Its capable founders had ambitious plans and could not find anyone in Britain who had the vision and cash to help them make them happen. They sold for £400 million when a cheque from the government or a smart domestic investor could have seen DeepMind become Britain’s OpenAI — the latter, set up in 2015, was valued at $500 billion last year.

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“If you’re lucky enough to be a country that starts to see something emerge that could be [trillion dollar in] scale, it feels fairly obvious to me that you need to do something about it,” [AI expert and venture capitalist Ian] Hogarth says. “It still to me feels tragic that nobody in the UK really realised how important DeepMind was.”

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While DeepMind’s cofounders Sir Demis Hassabis and Shane Legg are exceptional, others are following in their path, inspired by what the pair have achieved. In response the government should get behind them, Hogarth says. It can do that in a number of powerful ways, just as the Americans and Chinese already do.

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“The primary driver of economic growth in the UK was the City and finance. That has been superseded by technology, globally,” he says.

“Fundamentally what the UK needs is a government that has an understanding of technology embedded in every aspect of what it does. It’s not a bolt-on advisory council but actually a mindset that this is something we have to win.

“You want the prime minister to be waking up thinking about who are the five companies that could really, really matter. This is actually the meat and potatoes of the next 20 years of the UK’s success or failure.”

Where possible, government spending should be directed at this small group of “winners” to help create $100 billion-plus national tech champions, he argues. Giving lucrative computer contracts to Microsoft, Google, Nvidia and the like, or drone contracts to US defence companies, actively hinders the development of their UK-based rivals.

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Archived

Poland narrowly avoided a large-scale power outage by thwarting what officials described as the most serious cyberattack on its energy infrastructure in years, the government said this week.

The attempted disruption occurred in the final days of December, when hackers targeted communications between renewable energy installations — including solar farms and wind turbines — and electricity distribution operators across large parts of the country, according to Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka.

Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said Tuesday the incident came “very close to a blackout” and bore the hallmarks of a coordinated sabotage campaign.

“The scale of this attack, the vector of entry, and who was behind it indicate that it was a deliberate attempt to cut off power to Polish citizens,” Gawkowski told local media. “Everything points to Russian sabotage.”

Unlike previous cyber incidents that focused on large power plants or transmission networks, the latest attack targeted multiple smaller sources of power simultaneously.

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He declined to provide technical details about the intrusion, formally attribute it to a specific threat actor, or outline what security measures were introduced following the incident.

A NATO member and a key supporter of Ukraine, Poland has faced a growing number of cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

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The attempted breach came Ukraine has declared a state of emergency in the country's energy sector, with a particular focus on Kyiv, as ongoing Russian strikes continue to leave thousands of residents without power.

Moscow continues to bombard Ukraine’s energy system with drones and missiles, triggering what Ukrainian authorities have described as an “unprecedented” energy crisis and leaving millions without power, heating, and water during freezing winter temperatures.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45570248

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China wanted to outbuild Europe and the United States by launching the Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC), a colossal ring that would dwarf CERN’s famous Large Hadron Collider under the fields near Geneva. The idea was simple to state and insanely hard to realize: construct the biggest, cleanest “Higgs factory” on Earth, then follow it with a proton-proton collider that would push deeper into the unknown. Physicists around the world quietly redid their career plans around that dream.

Then came the bill. As cost estimates climbed into the multi‑billion, then tens‑of‑billions range, the tone in official Chinese statements cooled. Internal debates surfaced about whether a giant collider delivered enough value compared to quantum computing, AI, fusion, or simply shoring up the economy. The CEPC, once floated as a flagship national prestige project, slipped into a diplomatic grey zone. No cancellation speech, no ribbon‑cutting either — just delay, silence, recalibration. For a project built on speed and ambition, this slow fade spoke louder than any press conference.

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Scientists in China like to tell the story of how the original CEPC concept emerged from small, late‑night workshops in 2012 and 2013. Back then, the Higgs boson had just been confirmed at CERN, and the feeling worldwide was that the next step should be bolder, cleaner, bigger. In those early talks, the question wasn’t if China could lead, but how fast.

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That dream met a harsher reality after 2015, when Chinese growth slowed and the global mood turned more anxious. Giant infrastructure projects used to be easy political wins; you poured concrete, took photos, claimed progress. A collider is different. You bury billions in the ground and wait years for results the public can’t touch or hold. As budgets tightened and geopolitical tensions escalated, the collider’s price tag started to look less like a badge of leadership and more like a risky bet.

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There was never a single dramatic moment where a Chinese official walked to a podium and killed the CEPC on live television. Instead, the project drifted into the limbo where grand plans quietly go to sleep. Public roadmaps became vaguer. Key milestones slid into “future phases.” Teams that had spent a decade sharpening designs found themselves repackaging those same plans as “long-term options.” It’s the modern way of cancelling something without admitting defeat. You don’t say “never”. You say “not now”. And you let the silence do the work.

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At the heart of the decision is a brutally simple trade‑off: the cost per additional unit of knowledge. Pushing beyond the energies of the LHC doesn’t just require a slightly bigger ring. It demands new magnets, new materials, new cooling systems, and a small army of highly specialized engineers.

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When you’re a global superpower juggling aging populations, regional inequality, and a turbulent tech war, a multi‑decade moonshot suddenly looks like a luxury.

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There’s another layer, more subtle and just as real: prestige fatigue. For two decades, China has stacked up megaprojects — record‑breaking bridges, high‑speed rail, massive dams, space stations. A collider is different precisely because its victory is invisible to most citizens. No one rides a particle beam to work. And while discovering a new particle might one day change everything, it’s hard to sell that promise on a TV news segment between housing prices and local weather.

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Web archive link

Dutch chipmaker Nexperia claimed that Chinese owner Wingtech Technology Co. was pushing for technology transfers out of Europe and threatening executives in a highly charged court hearing Wednesday that laid bare how deep and personal a dispute over control has become.

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In its bid to regain shareholding rights, Wingtech pushed back by attacking Nexperia’s European management, claiming that the company was performing well before the court’s intervention. It refuted claims that Nexperia was being “emptied out” and said the developments raise major questions about its “unequal treatment” as a Chinese investor.

After ordering Wingtech’s shares to be put under control of independent trustees in October, the Amsterdam Enterprise Chamber is weighing whether to open an investigation into how the chipmaker was managed by Wingtech’s founder, Zhang Xuezheng, who was suspended as Nexperia’s chief executive officer by the court.

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Representatives for Wingtech and Zhang “are attempting to pressure the Nexperia organization, including through personal attacks and claims for damages,” Guido Dierick, a court-appointed director, said at the hearing on Wednesday, “They’ve made thinly veiled threats against the three Nexperia executives present, including me.”

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If a probe is opened, court-appointed officials may continue to be involved in controlling Nijmegen-based Nexperia, prolonging the dispute. If judges opt against an investigation, Wingtech would regain its authority over the company, effectively ending the standoff that has disrupted the auto industry in Europe and around the world.

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Nexperia’s lawyers alleged that Zhang initiated several “radical changes” to the operations that would have made the chipmaker “completely dependent” on China and his own company WingSkySemi. They argued that the Shanghai-based wafer manufacturer was heavily in debt and had too few customers, and Zhang saw Nexperia as a “lifeline.”

A risk-management project presented by Wingtech — dubbed Project Rainbow — became “cover and justification” for moving production and systems to China. For example, design data had to be copied from U.S. to Chinese servers and suppliers were to be replaced by Chinese counterparts, according to Nexperia’s lawyers.

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The Dutch company said it had seen signals that Nexperia China is “becoming independent and setting up its own supply chain,” according to documents submitted to the court. It alleged that half of the firm’s existing stock was sold to the Chinese automaker BYD, despite obligations toward other customers.

“Wingtech is doing everything it can to destabilize Nexperia in this already challenging situation,” lawyers representing the Dutch company said. “Together with the local Chinese management, it is effectively holding Nexperia’s Chinese subsidiaries hostage.”

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Archived link

cross-posted from : https://lemmy.zip/post/57096502

https://archive.is/Jlnne

Berlin is expressing doubt about the European Union's ability to withstand the rise of nationalist parties and the pressure from the Trump administration. This unprecedented skepticism in Germany has raised fears of lasting weakening, or even the gradual marginalization, of Europe as it exists today.

cross-posted from : https://lemmy.zip/post/57018439

Around the world, many people expect China’s—already considerable—global influence to grow over the next decade, and more now view Beijing as an ally or necessary partner.

Europeans are the world’s chief pessimists. They lack faith in the EU’s ability to deal on equal terms with the US or China and worry about Russian aggression and nuclear weapons.

European leaders should share greater honesty about where Europe stands in this post-Western, “China first” world in order to devise a successful strategy to navigate it.

One way the Chinese are dealing with this—and with America’s hegemony—is to work with other countries to “democratise international relations” by giving non-Western countries more of a voice. In a global order in which (as this year’s survey shows) publics feel their countries are freer than ever to choose their friends, the results of the poll will be music to the ears of decision-makers in Beijing. For decision-makers in Europe, however, the question is how to live in the truly multipolar world many Europeans have long dreamed of, but perhaps never imagined would take shape in quite this way. They also worry the Venezuela intervention legitimises the idea of China and Russia having their own spheres of influence.

China’s rise is seen as something that suits people living in most non-Western countries. Life without a hegemon is how most people appear to imagine the post-American world.

Most Europeans do not believe the EU is a power able to deal on equal terms with the US or China—and these doubts have grown over the past 12 months. As data presented earlier showed, Europeans are among the least confident in the EU’s strength.

On the surface, Europeans may already be making the mental shift to a post-Western world in which Europe increasingly finds itself alone. They harbour no illusions about the US under Trump. They support ramping up defence spending and realise they are living in a dangerous world.

cross-posted from : https://lemmy.zip/post/57086584

https://archive.is/vDPVr

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/49003620

Britain is examining plans to use any oil seized from Russian shadow fleet vessels to fund the Ukrainian war effort, a government source has disclosed.

Under options being discussed, the UK would not only stop funds flowing to Russia’s war machine but also divert money raised from sanctioned oil to Ukraine. Whether such a plan is feasible is unclear.

“There would be a double impact on Russia’s war machine — we wouldn’t just be depriving them of illicit war revenues but also finding a way to help fund Ukraine’s resistance,” the source said.

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Elite troops trained to rappel onto ships from helicopters and capture their crews could target hundreds of illegal oil tankers after the government identified a legal basis for such raids.

Two shadow fleet vessels sanctioned by Britain — Spring Fortune and Range Vale — are on course to sail into the Channel at about lunchtime on Wednesday.

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Archive link

Archived

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Denmark and two islands — tiny Bornholm in the Baltic Sea and Greenland, the largest in the world — find themselves caught between Russia, the old Cold War rival, and the U.S., the (theoretically) protecting power. “For the first time in 80 years, we are threatened from both sides,” observes Jonas Parello-Plesner, executive director of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation and a former Danish diplomat, from Copenhagen. “We are in a world on the brink of collapse.”

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Denmark, after World War II, was neither neutral, like its neighbor Sweden, nor pacifist [...] “We gave very little thought to territorial defense,” Parello-Plesner reflects. “Now, suddenly, with Ukraine, we’re not on the front line [against Russia], but we are on the second line, precisely in Bornholm. And on the other side, in the west [in Greenland], we were used to having our friend, partner, and ally.”

Not anymore, and all of this is very much present on the Baltic island. “If we want to send a message to the United States,” says a soldier during an informal conversation, “we could send our guys from Bornholm to Greenland.”

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45424493

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The Taoiseach [Irish prime minister] cannot have been unimpressed by China’s infrastructure, which is evidence of how far it has come in the world. The reason the Chinese became so good at building is because they put engineers in charge, while in the West we put lawyers in the driver’s seat.

So where does Ireland fit into this? Why would China even bother with us, much less roll out the red carpet the way it did?

The answer seems to be that it is working one by one on what it considers to be malleable EU member states.

Relations between China and the EU itself are regarded as frosty, because of disputes over trade, human rights and Ukraine.

The EU has a huge trade imbalance with China and believes Beijing is undermining the European car industry by dumping huge numbers of cheaply produced, but increasingly high-quality cars (see BYDs, for example) on our markets.

China is a serial human rights abuser, and this has become worse under Xi. It is also a Russian ally that refuses to sanction Moscow or force it to the negotiation table with Ukraine.

Instead, it is content to see Western energies absorbed in that war.

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Last July, there was a China-EU summit in Beijing which the Atlantic Council, a prestigious think tank, said neither side really wanted. It was originally set for Brussels, but Xi refused to go — so it was moved to Beijing instead and cut from two days to one. The event was described as tense.

​Against this background, it makes sense for China to work on EU member states individually.

One of those is Hungary, the EU’s perennial “bad boy” under Viktor Orban. Another appears to be the EU’s perennial “good boy” — and that’s us. Martin was in China with one mission in mind: namely to improve relations and trade with Beijing.

China was never going to roll out the red carpet for us if it knew in advance we would challenge it in any real way over its human rights record. The Irish practice on these occasions is to mention human rights in a quiet way, and then move swiftly along, and so it proved on this occasion.

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On the website of the [Irish] Department of Foreign Affairs, we find the bald and unambiguous statement: “Respect for human rights and the promotion of human rights is a cornerstone of Irish foreign policy.” Is it really?

Xi has presided over the jailing of dissidents, the crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, the brutal suppression of the Uyghur Muslims, the continuing oppression of Tibet, and a vast surveillance network that monitors almost every activity of ordinary Chinese people.

Martin knows all this, as does every politician here worth their salt. But aside from an excellent article in this newspaper last Sunday by Fianna Fáil’s Malcolm Byrne, there was almost no political pressure on Martin to make a real issue of China’s human rights record — whereas we are very noisy about Donald Trump and Israel.

Is this explained by the fact that most politicians never think about China from one end of the day to the other, or perhaps that some on the left see China as part of an anti-Western, “anti-imperialist” front, and therefore to be looked upon sympathetically?

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Oddly enough, when Martin met Xi, the Chinese leader mentioned reading The Gadfly, a book by the Irish-born Ethel Voynich. It is about a revolutionary who stands up to the authorities of his day.

It was a massive bestseller in the Soviet Union and China years ago. Who knew?

Well, as Cónal Thomas pointed out in the Irish Independent on Tuesday, China’s leaders understood perfectly well that Martin is no gadfly. He is anything but.

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Archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45366838

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45366836

Britain is facing “post-modern total warfare” as intimidation of politicians intensifies before the next general election, while hostile states, Islamist groups and activist movements are accused of exploiting weaknesses in the country’s democratic system.

Senior parliamentarians said threats, abuse and organised campaigns had reached new levels and were undermining confidence in public life, adding that they feared unless the issue was confronted voters would increasingly turn to fringe political movements.

The comments came as a new cross-party parliamentary group announced an inquiry into election intimidation and the targeting of MPs, councillors and candidates.

Lord Walney, the government’s former anti-extremism tsar, and Nick Timothy, the Conservative MP, said the issue had slipped down the government’s agenda despite a sharp rise in the number of politicians requiring police protection.

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[Walney] said the scale of the problem remained largely hidden because many victims were too frightened to speak publicly.

“Many people have got really horrendous experiences that they’ve been reluctant to share,” he said.

The group will also examine the threats to democratic institutions from hostile states and Islamic extremism. Timothy said this had been brought into focus by the controversy over a decision to ban fans of an Israeli football team from attending a match in Birmingham.

Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, was urged by MPs and Jewish groups to sack the West Midlands police chief, Craig Guildford, after he was accused of concealing intelligence of local protesters threatening attacks if Israeli football fans were allowed to attend the Maccabi Tel Aviv Europa League match against Aston Villa in November.

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Walney and Timothy linked election intimidation to a wider pattern of pressure on public institutions. They said this took the form of attempts to influence universities, energy infrastructure and critical industries, often with backing from hostile foreign states.

Timothy said: “What we’re facing is not hybrid warfare, it’s a post-modern version of total warfare. We’re talking about having our values and our systems and our way of life challenged across pretty much every conceivable field.”

China and Russia were singled out as particular threats, alongside other states and organisations.

As well as state threats, Walney and Timothy highlighted activism from pro-Gaza campaigns, Extinction Rebellion and far-right groups. They argued that there were clear links and patterns across protest movements, including co-ordinated abuse during election campaigns.

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The all-party parliamentary group’s first inquiry will examine intimidation during recent elections and before local contests in England, Scotland and Wales. Walney said: “The local elections are going to be something of a window on to the culture that has now been created.”

He said that unless the political class addressed the problem with what they called “clear-eyed” leadership, the consequences would be severe.

“Either we own this and take the public with us, or the public are going to turn to other people on the fringes,” he said.

Timothy added: “People are very nervous about being divisive but guess what? We’re already divided.”

Archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45241581

TL;DR:

• China-linked threat actor UAT-7290 has been active since at least 2022 in South Asia but is now also active in Europe
• It is focusing on intrusions against critical infrastructure entities in Southeast Europe
• UAT-7290 shares tactical and infrastructure overlaps with China-linked adversaries known as Stone Panda and RedFoxtrot (aka Nomad Panda)

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Here is the technical report by Cisco Talos

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45240492

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US and EU policymakers have launched government initiatives ..., including diversifying their supply chains, establishing stockpiles, investing in private companies and expanding domestic processing and recycling capacities. These efforts seek to mitigate the risk of supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations as Beijing restricts critical minerals supplies for geopolitical leverage.

Government involvement is expected to accelerate in 2026 as recent restrictions on Chinese rare earths exports highlight vulnerabilities and drive the US and EU to reshape the global supply landscape, experts told Platts, a part of S&P Global Energy.

"What we're seeing globally is that the composition of mining companies is getting much more complex where you have a combination of government stakeholders, private equity, private investors and even capital from export and import banks," said Julie Klinger, a University of Delaware professor in the geography and spatial sciences program.

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In the US, federal agencies launched $134 million in investment opportunities for rare earths and obtained several equity stakes in private companies, including the formation of a public-private partnership between the US defense department and rare earths company MP Materials, which aims to build a secure, end-to-end domestic rare earths supply chain. The deal involved a $400 million equity investment, a $150 million loan and a 10-year offtake agreement.

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In Europe, the EU ratified the Critical Raw Materials Act in 2024, which aims to enhance the EU's domestic capacities. The law stipulates that no more than 65% of the EU's annual consumption of any strategic raw material should come from a single third country.

The bloc in March 2025 also published a list of 47 strategic and critical minerals projects, accounting for an expected overall capital investment of Eur22.5 billion ($24.35 billion). Other actions include plans to mobilize up to Eur3 billion in funding over the next 12 months to fast-track strategic extraction and processing projects that could reduce EU import dependencies by up to 50% by 2029.

To date, the EU has established 15 critical minerals partnerships with resource-rich countries, such as South Africa, Namibia, Argentina, Chile and Canada, to bolster resilient supply chains. The bloc has also launched negotiations with Brazil, while deepening cooperation with Ukraine and the Western Balkans through the Global Gateway investment initiative.

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Archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45124214

TL;DR:

• Trade is a cornerstone of the EU–Canada partnership. Since its provisional application in 2017, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has significantly deepened economic ties by eliminating tariffs on 98% of goods, opening public procurement markets and creating new opportunities for businesses of all sizes. CETA supports high standards on labour, environmental protection and sustainable development, while providing a predictable and transparent framework for transatlantic trade and investment.
• An annual Security and Defence Dialogue has been established, and discussions on a defence industrial cooperation arrangement have now concluded, enabling Canadian companies to participate in the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) procurement instrument. SAFE supports joint defence procurement and enhances the resilience of the European and transatlantic defence industrial base. Canada is the first non-EU country to join the programme.
• On 8 December 2025, the European Union and Canada convened the first meeting of the EU–Canada Digital Partnership Council in Montreal. During this meeting, both partners signed memoranda of understanding (MoUs) covering cooperation on artificial intelligence (AI), and on digital credentials, digital identity wallets and trust services. This new forum will guide collaboration on AI governance, quantum technologies, cybersecurity and digital standards. The goal is to build digital systems that are secure, transparent and centred on public trust.
• Both partners are also accelerating the implementation of the Strategic Partnership on Raw Materials, with particular attention to rare earths. Further collaboration is ongoing to strengthen energy supply chains, including natural gas and clean-tech components.
• The European Union and Canada remain closely aligned in their commitment to Ukraine. Both partners continue to coordinate sanctions, military assistance and financial support, as well as efforts to ensure accountability for violations of international law.

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45123153

Russian strikes on Ukraine overnight left more than 1 million people in the Dnipropetrovsk region without water supplies or heating, a Ukrainian minister said Thursday, as temperatures dipped below freezing.

As in previous winters, Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukraine's energy sites, leading to heating and water outages in what Kyiv and its allies call a deliberate strategy to wear down the civilian population.

The large-scale Russian drone attack also knocked out power in the Zaporizhzhia region, leaving thousands without electricity or heating, the state grid operator Ukrenergo said late Wednesday.

"Repair work continues in Dnipropetrovsk region to restore heat and water supply for over a million subscribers," Restoration Minister Oleksiy Kuleba wrote on social media.

The Ukrainian air force said Russia attacked with 97 drones, with 70 downed by air defense system but 27 striking various locations, without elaborating.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45054538

• Italy plans to back the Mercosur free-trade agreement in a vote that will likely be the final major hurdle for the European Union to clinch the accord.
• The EU-Mercosur trade pact would create a market, phasing out tariffs on goods such as cars and giving Europe wider access to Mercosur’s agricultural sector.
• The deal can pass without support from France and just needs a qualified majority of the EU’s member states.

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Italy is expected to reverse course and support the deal when EU ambassadors vote on the measure on Jan. 9, according to people familiar with the matter. That would allow the EU to sign the treaty with the Mercosur countries — Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay — on Jan. 12.

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The EU-Mercosur trade pact would create a 780 million-consumer market, phasing out tariffs on goods such as cars and giving Europe wider access to Mercosur’s vast agricultural sector. The deal would offer both sides an alternative to the US after President Donald Trump imposed a slate of global tariffs over the past year.

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The proposed accord is the largest ever negotiated by the EU. For more than two decades, talks have perpetually paused and restarted as officials tried to appease concerns over both environmental protections and agrifood standards for the Mercosur bloc.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45053012

For decades, the Nordic nation has woven media literacy, including the ability to analyze different kinds of media and recognize disinformation, into its national curriculum for students as young as 3 years old. The coursework is part of a robust anti-misinformation program to make Finns more resistant to propaganda and false claims, especially those crossing over the 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border with neighboring Russia.

Now, teachers are tasked with adding artificial intelligence literacy to their curriculum, especially after Russia stepped up its disinformation campaign across Europe following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. Finland’s ascension into NATO in 2023 also provoked Moscow’s ire, though Russia has repeatedly denied it interferes in the internal affairs of other countries.

“We think that having good media literacy skills is a very big civic skill,” Kiia Hakkala, a pedagogical specialist for the City of Helsinki, told The Associated Press. “It’s very important to the nation’s safety and to the safety of our democracy.”

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44883299

From February 24, 2022, to January 4, 2026, Ukrainian law enforcement officers recorded 191,822 crimes committed by Russian occupiers.

Of these, 174,883 are war crimes, 9,380 are crimes against the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and 4,639 are crimes related to collaborationism. Another 426 cases of high treason were recorded.

Also, 144 criminal proceedings were initiated for sexual crimes committed by Russian occupiers.

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At the same time, during the full-scale invasion, 678 children died in Ukraine, 2,315 of them were injured, 2,232 went missing, and 20,000 were deported to Russia.

Another 49,420 children were found and 1,943 children were returned.

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During 2025, Russia launched more than 60,000 guided aerial bombs, about 2,400 missiles, and over 100,000 drones at Ukraine. Air raid sirens sounded at least 19,033 times across Ukraine.

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Here is the original report published by Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service

After statements about an alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian leader Vladimir Putin's residence, Ukrainian intelligence is detecting the Kremlin's spread of "new fabricated information pretexts to prepare Russian and foreign audiences for further escalation."

"We predict with high probability a shift from manipulative influence to an armed provocation by Russian special services with significant human casualties. Expected timing — ahead of or during Orthodox Christmas celebrations. The provocation site could be a religious building or other object with high symbolic value in Russia or temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories," the FIS said.

According to intelligence, to fabricate evidence of Ukrainian involvement, debris from Western-made strike UAVs will be delivered to the provocation site from the line of contact.

"Exploiting fear and committing terrorist acts with human casualties under a 'false flag' fully matches the style of Russian special services. Putin's regime has repeatedly used this tactic inside Russia, and now the same model is being exported abroad, indirectly confirmed by public statements from senior Russian officials," the FIS said.

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A related report, citing Ukrainian Military Intel, says that, "To falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, fragments of Western-made attack UAVs will be used, which will be delivered to the site of the provocation from the line of combat contact."

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44860986

Archived version

The Irish Military Intelligence Service (IMIS) has provided confidential briefings to university leaders, warning them about the risks associated with Chinese engagement in sensitive areas of research, particularly in fields that could be adapted for military use.

In the first authorised interview by the organisation, a senior IMIS officer said Ireland’s relationship with China posed a unique challenge, as the country enjoyed a beneficial economic relationship with Beijing, but said Irish universities had been warned about the potential consequences.

“It can be hugely detrimental to the West if you empower them [China] by educating them simply because they come to a university with funds. This can be hugely detrimental to the West if you teach them how to twist a knot to the left or right, which helps them to develop a weapon or military application.

We made these points to the universities and it was very successful. It’s done discreetly to empower and protect our democratic institutions,” he said. Irish third-level institutions have collaborated with Chinese universities, which have been linked to cyberattacks and nuclear research.The Irish Military Intelligence Service has provided confidential briefings to university leaders, warning them about the risks associated with Chinese engagement in sensitive areas of research, particularly in fields that could be adapted for military use.

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Irish third-level institutions have collaborated with Chinese universities, which have been linked to cyberattacks and nuclear research.

The intelligence service also identified Russia as one of the primary threats to the state’s national security and confirmed it had successfully disrupted the activities of foreign spies operating here, ­forcing some to leave the country.

Spies have been made to “pack their bags and go home” after their activities were “disrupted”, the officer said, which made it untenable for them to continue operating here without the need to make an arrest.

“They don’t necessarily know that we’ve been in the background but we have had a lot of success doing that,” he said.

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The secret organisation said it worked alongside the militaries of European countries including Britain, France and Germany, helping to protect them from aggressive acts by hostile states while upholding Ireland’s stated position of neutrality.

The officer described IMIS as being a “good European neighbour”. The Sunday Times agreed not to identify the officer by name, rank or appearance, or to record the interview, but he plays a part in briefing the government on national defence and authorising covert operations mounted by secretive branches of the military to protect Ireland.

The decision to allow the interview reflects mounting concern within the military about the scale of hostile activity targeting Ireland, and a belief that the public must be made aware of how modern conflict is already being waged below the threshold of war.

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In a related report from October, an investiation revealed how China’s United Front spy network has sought to influence Irish politicians and exploited a residency scheme.

... China’s intelligence services are infamous for their slow, methodical cultivation of contacts in positions of power — a strategy that embeds them in political and business life long before their aims become clear. The operation targeting Leinster House took years, indicating it was run by the United Front, a shadowy organisation that organises influence operations, but it may also have involved the Ministry of State Security (MSS), China’s foreign intelligence service.

“The United Front is a network of organisations and individuals working under a degree of guidance and control from the Chinese Communist Party. It helps legitimise the party inside China and manage political representation while also being used to push international objectives such as political influence in foreign countries,” Alex Joske, the author of Spies and Lies: How China’s Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World, said ...

The United Front’s structure is vast and under President Xi it has become a central instrument of Beijing statecraft. It extends its reach through an array of friendship associations, business forums and student groups ...

The UF was also responsible for attempts to secure access to the British royal family by befriending the Duke of York. Prince Andrew first met the suspected agent, Yang Tengbo, in 2013 at a reception during the Shanghai Grand Prix. Yang later became a confidant of the duke until he was banned from entering Britain on national security grounds.

The full scale of the damage done to Irish interests may be far greater than the government can imagine, however. The agent at the centre of the scandal is part of a larger network of Chinese nationals who have acquired significant wealth in Ireland. An analysis of one business showed it acquired a significant state property in return for investment into a company that appears to have stopped trading and is defunct ...

The threat posed by hostile states such as Russia and China has been identified as one of the most pressing challenges for the government, specifically Jim O’Callaghan, the justice minister, and Harris, now foreign affairs and defence minister ...

Chung Ching Kwong, a senior analyst at the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance in Britain, described UF operations in Ireland as part of wider “grey zone” activity by Beijing in the European Union. Her research has previously uncovered the existence of UF stations in Dublin, two in Cork and one at the University of Galway, identified using information from publicly available Chinese records ...

“At some point intelligence communities will have to come up with a whole-of-state approach to protect ­society. But I haven’t seen those kinds of discussions happening yet,” she said.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44807882

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44807878

War-driven boom fades

The year 2025 marked the end of Russia’s wartime growth spurt of 2023-24. After two years of expansion of more than 4%, GDP growth for 2025 is expected to slow to around 1% or lower, with the same headwinds likely to persist into 2026.

The economy has largely exhausted the temporary drivers that underpinned growth in 2023 and 2024. In 2023, rapid expansion reflected a rebound from the shock of 2022, when the economy was forced to rapidly reorient toward wartime production.

In 2024, growth rested on a different pillar: a sharp rise in state spending. Federal expenditures increased by roughly a quarter that year, rising to 40.2 trillion rubles ($502.5 billion) from 32.35 trillion rubles ($404.4 billion) in 2023, injecting demand into the economy.

Those drivers were largely absent in 2025, and there is no obvious catalyst to revive growth in 2026.

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Tax burden rises as revenues erode

For the first time since the pandemic, Russia collected less budget revenue in 2025 than originally planned. When the 2025 budget was approved, revenues were set at 40.3 trillion rubles ($503.8 billion). Updated forecasts suggest actual receipts will come in closer to 36.6 trillion rubles ($457.5 billion).

This marks a break from the previous three years, including 2022, when revenues consistently exceeded initial projections.

The shortfall partly reflects weaker tax intake amid slowing growth, as well as falling oil prices and Western sanctions that have widened the discount Russia must offer buyers for its crude.

Oil and gas revenues in 2025 are now projected at 8.7 trillion rubles ($108.8 billion), well below the originally planned 10.9 trillion rubles ($136.3 billion). With growth slowing and oil prices under pressure, 2026 is likely to bring another year of weak budget revenues.

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Despite the economic slowdown, Russian authorities have little room to cut military spending as the war in Ukraine drags on.

President Vladimir Putin has shown no sign of backing down from his maximalist demands, repeatedly saying Russia is prepared to fight until it secures control over the four Ukrainian regions it claims to have annexed.

Officially, spending on national defense is set at 13.5 trillion rubles ($168.8 billion) in 2025 and 12.93 trillion rubles ($161.6 billion) in 2026. But actual outlays, including classified spending, are likely to be higher.

Russia does not disclose full military expenditures in its federal budget, publishing only planned figures.

Officials occasionally provide partial disclosures. In December, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said defense spending amounted to 7.3% of GDP in 2025.

With GDP estimated at 217.3 trillion rubles ($2.72 trillion) in 2025, this implies total defense spending of around 15.86 trillion rubles ($198.3 billion), well above the figures published in the budget.

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