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Satellite imagery is pretty much useless here, as is Israeli testimony, so I really don't think there's anything to be said one way or another about Hezbollah's current state. Both optimists and pessimists are on equal ground.

My impression is that they're reconsolidating and regrouping after their losses, getting their post-Syria-collapse supply lines solidified, making sure their devices don't have bombs in them, etc - but they can't just take the next five years out to do this or whatever or 2.4 million people will be dead, and Lebanon will be bombed all the while. There's a time limit here.

For the record, I strongly doubt that their missile stockpiles are massively depleted, and I take no stock in reports that Israel has actually meaningfully destroyed their missile arsenals because every single claim that they have ever made that such and such group are "defeated" or "disarmed" or "out of power" is immediately contradicted by facts on the ground (e.g. after 600 days, they've probably said Hamas has been defeated dozens of times, and yet it is still absolutely functioning and killing Israeli soldiers to this very day and the US and Israel are still trying to engage in ceasefires with them, which is odd for a group that they claim doesn't have power anymore).

I have been trying to find information in regards to the current states of Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansarallah, Iraq, etc, but such analysis is becoming annoyingly scarce. I'm not even talking "good news" or "bad news", I'd be perfectly willing to accept well-researched analysis from (obviously non-Western) experts that concluded that the current stage of Resistance is over and Israel has temporarily won - but there's just not really anything from anybody I know of that goes into this aspect at all. The focus is on the civilian aspect, which is 100% understandable because it's so horrifying and getting ever more important as Israel continues to starve and bomb them. It just means that finding information about what the forces in opposition to Israel are currently doing (even in a general sense) is now almost impossible.

Like, does that "joint command room" thing between the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansarallah, Iraq, and Iran still exist, post-Sinwar and post-Nasrallah? Is there still a regional coordination where Yemen is continuing to apply pressure while Hezbollah is recovering, or are Yemen's actions now more-or-less isolated from the rest of the Resistance (though they could absolutely still be quite effective!)? Does the Resistance have an overarching plan for future actions against Israel, or are we in the licking-wounds stage? I've found no answers to these questions in the last few months. Though I haven't "lost hope" or anything, because my analysis has been guided by Marxism, dia-mat, anti-colonial theory and conflicts such as Vietnam, Algeria, and previous stages of anti-Israel war like 2006 Lebanon, not mere optimism.

What I will say is that, historically, it's enormously difficult to defeat national resistance groups; really the only way to do it is to just kill literally everybody, which the European colonial powers couldn't really do because they needed the population for labor, but Israel is trying to do by e.g. replacing Palestinian workers with others from abroad so that every single Palestinian in the country can be killed/displaced without the resulting economic collapse, and it might work if Hezbollah, Iraq, and Iran continue to hibernate. But that same total-civilian-destruction won't really be achievable for Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran. Given Western imperial decay is inevitable, there is literally no physical method by which Israel could achieve a permanent victory in the region - even nuclear war would result in their own destruction vis-a-vis a full-scale Iranian conventional response with thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of missiles aimed at every power station, desalination plant, military base, and port in Israel. What this conflict is about is "how many people will Israel be allowed to murder before they collapse," and I had hoped that it would be less than a million, but now I'm less sure.