this post was submitted on 31 Jul 2026
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It talks about DUV (deep ultra violet), last generation, not EUV (extreme ultra violet). So China is now a competitor on part of ASML's market where they held about 95% market share, not on their 100% top of the line models that can go even more detailed.
Since ASML DUV line has been around longer they worked on increasing stability and performance, so likely they won't be outperformed globally, yet. But China has extra incentive not to buy Dutch since they won't sell them EUV. This will have a noticable effect on their revenue, but it's speculation as to how much revenue they will loose unless China mandates their own product.
Also, ASML is increasing DUV capabilities beyond the laser input size + lenses with a bubble of water which changes the refractory index which lays on top of the wafer, no idea if that is in the Chinese products. If it isn't we are basically talking about the 4th gen machine. It's DUV, DUV + water, EUV (needing mirrors since lenses now absorb this light), EUV with increased height requirements for the clean rooms).