Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

Anti-science, inactivism, and unsupported conspiracy theories are not ok here.

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A new study led by Tulane University backs up that view, revealing stark racial disparities across the U.S.’s petrochemical workforce. Inequity was especially pronounced in Louisiana, where people of color were underrepresented in both high- and low-paying jobs at chemical plants and refineries.

“It was really surprising how consistently people of color didn’t get their fair share of jobs in the petrochemical industry,” said Kimberly Terrell, a research scientist with the Tulane Environmental Law Clinic. “No matter how you slice or dice the data by states, metro areas or parishes, the data’s consistent.”

Toxic air pollution in Louisiana’s petrochemical corridor, an area often referred to as “Cancer Alley,” has risen in recent years. The burdens of pollution have been borne mostly by the state’s Black and poor communities, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

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I have yet to see commercially available pea milk where I live.

The paper is here

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Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

On April 17, 2025, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists held a discussion exploring the risks of climate change and how to understand what planetary shifts are inevitable – and which are solvable – in this current era of scientific skepticism.

Each year, new data strengthens our understanding of the planet's rising temperatures and growing environmental instability. With the increase in uncontrollable wildfires, stronger storms, and rising ocean levels, the question remains of whether we are too late to reverse – or significantly slow – our changing climate.

There have been a few bright spots towards reaching targets set in the Paris Agreement, such as increases in sustainable energy generation and climate finance. Still, these advances have not yet slowed consistent record-breaking heat and a continued year-over-year rise of atmospheric carbon– leaving us to question whether there is a ‘tipping point’ – a threshold beyond which climate change is irreversible.

Speakers include:

Moderator: Alexandra Bell, president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Inez Fung, Professor Emerita of Atmospheric Science in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science and the Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management at the University of California, Berkeley. She is also a member of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board.

Robert Kopp, Distinguished Professor in the Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences at Rutgers University.

Femke Nijsse, Senior Lecturer in Innovation, Energy and Climate at the University of Exeter.

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emissions down in last 10 months of 2024. Very likely that trailing 12 months are down too (not covered in article, but something they will pick up)

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28% growth over 2023. Forecast for 2025 is 215-250GW, down, but original forecast from same agency/report for 2024 was only 220GW (achieved 26%+ higher than target). March 2025 report shows 42% increase in solar capacity (or production actually) over last year, at end of February. 930gw. 33gw in 2 months is behind forecast on linear basis, but this is slow period, traditionally . Production can go up higher than capacity if it was sunnier than last year.

Solar module output expanded 13.5% to 588 GW. Forecast for 2025 is up to 583gw. It exported 235gw of solar panels. up 13% in 2024. Europe was down for the year, but up in last quarter. https://www.infolink-group.com/energy-article/solar-topic-china-pv-module-exports-yoy-growth-all-regions-except-europe

500gw per year is enough to match double Germany's annual electricity production. Not that Germany isn't already a leader in renewables, but just that it is a significant permanent displacement of fossil fuel electricity, and with EVs, of Oil.

The important metric of energy transition is the global pace. Whether it's all done by one country doesn't actually matter.

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Note: these are oil industry unions

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The Hot Air tool is now available here.

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They've already reduced collection of basic data.

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