this post was submitted on 15 Feb 2026
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[–] grue@lemmy.world 115 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (13 children)

It is statistically impossible for life to exist on exactly one planet in the universe. Earth just isn't that fucking special!


Edit:

A statistical impossibility is a probability that is so low as to not be worthy of mentioning. Sometimes it is quoted as 10^−50^ although the cutoff is inherently arbitrary. Although not truly impossible the probability is low enough so as to not bear mention in a rational, reasonable argument.

https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2049714/can-something-be-statistically-impossible#2049722

If I'm wrong about the definition, at least I'm not wrong alone.

[–] lauha@lemmy.world 58 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Life is certain to exist, but multicellular life is less likely and intelligent multicellular who reaches for the stars is even less likely

[–] grue@lemmy.world 30 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Who said anything about multicellularity, intelligence, or space travel?

Point is, Obama's answer was vacuously true, and the only answer a non-idiot could reasonably could have given.

...Okay, I admit he could have quoted Contact for extra style points:

"The universe is a pretty big place. If it's just us, seems like an awful waste of space."

But aside from that, the answer he gave was the only one he could reasonably have given.

[–] Mouselemming@sh.itjust.works 15 points 1 month ago

Okay wait, listen to yourself. You expected Obama to give a reasonable answer, and of course he did. Gosh, wasn't that nice? You might agree or disagree with his choices and priorities, but even his worst policies had SOME sort of reason behind them. And were stated in complete grammatical sentences that stayed in topic.

[–] MIDItheKID@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago

Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.

Arthur C. Clarke

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[–] SendMePhotos@lemmy.world 19 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Earth is special. More special than most of the other planets that exist. But it's not the only special one.

[–] Karjalan@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

More special than ones we've detected, but our detection methods have a very biased available dataset.

[–] Stern@lemmy.world 14 points 1 month ago (2 children)

If we presume a functionally infinite universe sure life pretty much has to exist in multiple spots. That's a big presumption by itself though.

After that, is said civilization on some dinosaur shit? Are they so far beyond us we look like cavemen in comparison? Are they looking around the universe and just missed us? Do we want them to find us? Historically humanity finds less advanced groups and kills, enslaves, or just robs them blind. No reason to think the alien conquistadors would be better then the Spanish ones.

[–] bufalo1973@piefed.social 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

You are missing something: maybe the next "neighbor" civilization is in Andromeda or even farther. There is A LOT of space in the universe.

[–] SpacetimeMachine@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I would be very surprised if it was that far away to be honest. They estimate there are likely trillions of planets in our own galaxy now. For us to be the only one would be absurdly unlikely.

[–] bufalo1973@piefed.social 4 points 1 month ago

I didn't say life but civilization. I'm sure life is in the Milky Way and not that far.

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[–] BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today 13 points 1 month ago (1 children)

However, in the universe's life of billions of years, many civilizations may have risen and fallen, just not at the same time. Maybe life is such a rare confluence of events, that it only springs up occasionally, and never at the same time.

[–] grue@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Again, who said anything about "civilization?" Even just on Earth, life has existed for 4 billion years. That's 4 billion of the 14 billion years the universe as a whole has existed, or 28% of the time, which I wouldn't call "rare" at all!

Life on Earth started damn near immediately (in geologic terms) as soon as the crust cooled enough to not ~~set it on fire~~ cook its proteins (it wouldn't have caught fire because the atmosphere didn't have oxygen yet). Does that sound "rare" to you?

[–] Klear@quokk.au 14 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Life on Earth started damn near immediately (in geologic terms) as soon as the crust cooled enough to not set it on fire cook its proteins (it wouldn’t have caught fire because the atmosphere didn’t have oxygen yet). Does that sound “rare” to you?

Sounds well done to me.

[–] grue@lemmy.world 7 points 1 month ago

LOL, I was hoping somebody would pick up on that!

[–] theherk@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

It isn’t. Check out this talk by Dr. Kipping. If you role 1000 x D6, you might say it is statistically impossible to role that number. And you’d be close to right; it was very unlikely. But you did role it.

eta: The number of people supporting the phrase “statistically impossible” is troubling. This is why it is a problem that prominent scientists have made similar statements based on intuition. It isn’t based on statistics. We do not have sufficient data to make binary statements about Drake’s equation, nor even really to make any quantitative statements about the outcome, but certainly not binary ones.

[–] BremboTheFourth@piefed.ca 4 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Also, we just have literally no idea what it actually takes for life to come together. We have a sample size of one. Trying to come up with stats based on that is ridiculous, and until we actually come up with more evidence, saying either "oh there are definitely aliens" or "no there definitely aren't" just proves to me a person's willingness to make concrete statements on things they know nothing about.

[–] frongt@lemmy.zip 4 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

We do have an idea actually! We've run experiments where we put all the ingredients in a box and zap it, and we've found that it's possible for them to start forming the compounds that form the base of life on earth.

That was the Urey-Miller experiment in 1953, but more possibilities have been explored more recently: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adt8979

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[–] WoodScientist@lemmy.world 7 points 1 month ago

You're substituting "statistically impossible" for "emotionally impossible."

[–] Iconoclast@feddit.uk 5 points 1 month ago (8 children)

It's not impossible but it's extremely unlikely.

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[–] credo@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago

Statistically *improbable

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[–] KaChilde@sh.itjust.works 67 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (11 children)

I’ve said it before, but Trump as president basically rules out the existence of aliens on Earth. That fat fuck could not keep his mouth shut if he knew about aliens.

I have been rewatching the x-files, and the most fantastical part of the show is the idea that the FBI could orchestrate an alien conspiracy. Kash Patel couldn’t organise a piss-up in a brewery, let alone hide aliens from the world.

[–] andallthat@lemmy.world 31 points 1 month ago

It would be really funny if this was Obama messing with Trump. "Why has nobody told ME! What else does Obama know that I don't?". I can easily imagine Trump being unnerved by this

[–] SkaveRat@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 1 month ago

If there's a government agency that knows the truth about it, they are smart enough to make absolutely sure he will not hear about it

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[–] mayabuttreeks@lemmy.ca 56 points 1 month ago

OK sure "they're real" but said in a tongue-in-cheek manner and no follow-up from the 'journalist', LOL... Right on cue, another nothingburger that will keep the Art-Bell-Coast-to-Coast crowd occupied for another few decades while the billionaire class continues to build their empires.

[–] dhork@lemmy.world 40 points 1 month ago (3 children)

It's quite simple. If the US had evidence that aliens existed, do you think Donald Trump would gave kept it a secret? He would make a big show of insisting to be the guy who they talk to when they say "Take me to your leader", and he wouldn't be able to resist telling us all about it.

[–] WesternInfidels@feddit.online 9 points 1 month ago

You could get him to keep the secret forever: "Mr. President, it's my duty to inform you that space aliens are real. But they only want to talk to Obama."

[–] scytale@piefed.zip 9 points 1 month ago

It’s also possible they never told him. I can imagine more secretive and/or shady government agencies only provide info on a need-to-know basis even to the executive level.

[–] moderatecentrist@feddit.uk 33 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Obama clarified his comments on Instagram:

I was trying to stick with the spirit of the speed round, but since it’s gotten attention let me clarify. Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good there’s life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances we’ve been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!

What's crazy is that Trump would never say anything even half as intelligent as that.

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[–] wreckedcarzz@lemmy.world 21 points 1 month ago

That's exactly what someone would say who has knowledge of aliens being kept in area 51

[–] Gates9@sh.itjust.works 20 points 1 month ago
[–] Formfiller@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago

I’m more concerned about the pedofiles in government

[–] riskable@programming.dev 12 points 1 month ago

If extraterrestrial, sapient alien life has been discovered here on Earth by the US government it was probably uncovered via signals intelligence gathering. Not via any sort of physical interaction or visual observation.

Everyone thinks that to find aliens you need to search the skies, looking for visual evidence or radio patterns. No one bothers to think that a mass surveillance network across the globe would pick it up first—from local sources. Meaning: They're already here and could have been for hundreds of thousands of years (or longer).

There's probably an autonomous alien monitoring station broadcasting information about Earth on the regular. Probably more than one.

Exactly the type of thing that would be investigated by signals intelligence analysts who spend their days trying to figure out, "WTF was that?" Looking at data gathered from all over the world (for spying reasons).

That's why Obama would laugh at the question of, "where are the aliens?" Because he wouldn't know! He'd just know that they're here... Somewhere. Probably just super advanced machines, connected to a quantum-level universe-wide network.

The real question to ask is, "are they enjoying our memes?"

[–] Adderbox76@lemmy.ca 8 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Does alien life exist somewhere? Yes. Absolutely. It would be impossible for it not to given the size of the universe and the laws of probability.

Is that alien life multicellular? Again. Yes. For the same reason as above. In a functionally infinite universe, the roll of the dice is going to come up at least a few times.

Is that alien life intelligent? Maybe. But in my opinion, probably. Intelligent life arose here after many many stops and starts. It's probably that given enough kicks at the can, multicellular life can evolve intelligence on any planet where it arises if the conditions are right.

Has that intelligent life visited us? No. No intelligent life has ever left their own solar system except possibly in the form or a one-way generation ship.

Life evolves, either biologically or technologically, because of competition for resources. From the most basic amoeba competing for the heat from a steam vent at the bottom of an ocean, to humans competing for oil and minerals, life is about resources gathering.

So what happens when we finally are able to access the resources of the solar system, which are effectively limitless (at least from a human perspective)? Nothing. We stagnate. There's no impetus to go further than that. Scientists may want to. But pure science is a myth. People paying the bills are what drive us forward. and it's reasonable to assume that any life that evolves would do so facing the same pressures.

[–] leftzero@lemmy.dbzer0.com 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Intelligent life arose here

Citation needed.

I mean, dolphins are pretty smart, I suppose...

People, though..? Evidence points to a very definite no.

The fact that we call ourselves “wise” is the first hint that we're anything but.

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[–] WindyRebel@lemmy.world 7 points 1 month ago

I think his comment was really just him acknowledging UAPs and referring to them generically as “aliens”. That’s why he’s never “seen” them. He can’t confirm or deny little green men in these weird flying craft so his answer is he believes but he has not actually seen one.

Or he was just being cheeky for a fun clip. 🤷‍♂️

[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 7 points 1 month ago

I watched Pedophile Pam having her Karen-Thon in the House and if there was ever evidence for the conspiracy theory about reptilians, she looks like a textbook case...in some of her tantrums, I thought she might suddenly wriggle out of her snakeskin...

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

RFK jr is one, his worms are controlling his meat suit. several notable non humans: the android zuckerborg with no human emotion, the BEZO that pretends to laugh at inappropiate situations to mimick human emotions, and the elon bot, who is in a constant state of ketamine induced paranoia.

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