Europe

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45124214

TL;DR:

• Trade is a cornerstone of the EU–Canada partnership. Since its provisional application in 2017, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has significantly deepened economic ties by eliminating tariffs on 98% of goods, opening public procurement markets and creating new opportunities for businesses of all sizes. CETA supports high standards on labour, environmental protection and sustainable development, while providing a predictable and transparent framework for transatlantic trade and investment.
• An annual Security and Defence Dialogue has been established, and discussions on a defence industrial cooperation arrangement have now concluded, enabling Canadian companies to participate in the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) procurement instrument. SAFE supports joint defence procurement and enhances the resilience of the European and transatlantic defence industrial base. Canada is the first non-EU country to join the programme.
• On 8 December 2025, the European Union and Canada convened the first meeting of the EU–Canada Digital Partnership Council in Montreal. During this meeting, both partners signed memoranda of understanding (MoUs) covering cooperation on artificial intelligence (AI), and on digital credentials, digital identity wallets and trust services. This new forum will guide collaboration on AI governance, quantum technologies, cybersecurity and digital standards. The goal is to build digital systems that are secure, transparent and centred on public trust.
• Both partners are also accelerating the implementation of the Strategic Partnership on Raw Materials, with particular attention to rare earths. Further collaboration is ongoing to strengthen energy supply chains, including natural gas and clean-tech components.
• The European Union and Canada remain closely aligned in their commitment to Ukraine. Both partners continue to coordinate sanctions, military assistance and financial support, as well as efforts to ensure accountability for violations of international law.

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45123153

Russian strikes on Ukraine overnight left more than 1 million people in the Dnipropetrovsk region without water supplies or heating, a Ukrainian minister said Thursday, as temperatures dipped below freezing.

As in previous winters, Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukraine's energy sites, leading to heating and water outages in what Kyiv and its allies call a deliberate strategy to wear down the civilian population.

The large-scale Russian drone attack also knocked out power in the Zaporizhzhia region, leaving thousands without electricity or heating, the state grid operator Ukrenergo said late Wednesday.

"Repair work continues in Dnipropetrovsk region to restore heat and water supply for over a million subscribers," Restoration Minister Oleksiy Kuleba wrote on social media.

The Ukrainian air force said Russia attacked with 97 drones, with 70 downed by air defense system but 27 striking various locations, without elaborating.

...

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45053012

For decades, the Nordic nation has woven media literacy, including the ability to analyze different kinds of media and recognize disinformation, into its national curriculum for students as young as 3 years old. The coursework is part of a robust anti-misinformation program to make Finns more resistant to propaganda and false claims, especially those crossing over the 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border with neighboring Russia.

Now, teachers are tasked with adding artificial intelligence literacy to their curriculum, especially after Russia stepped up its disinformation campaign across Europe following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. Finland’s ascension into NATO in 2023 also provoked Moscow’s ire, though Russia has repeatedly denied it interferes in the internal affairs of other countries.

“We think that having good media literacy skills is a very big civic skill,” Kiia Hakkala, a pedagogical specialist for the City of Helsinki, told The Associated Press. “It’s very important to the nation’s safety and to the safety of our democracy.”

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45054538

• Italy plans to back the Mercosur free-trade agreement in a vote that will likely be the final major hurdle for the European Union to clinch the accord.
• The EU-Mercosur trade pact would create a market, phasing out tariffs on goods such as cars and giving Europe wider access to Mercosur’s agricultural sector.
• The deal can pass without support from France and just needs a qualified majority of the EU’s member states.

...

Italy is expected to reverse course and support the deal when EU ambassadors vote on the measure on Jan. 9, according to people familiar with the matter. That would allow the EU to sign the treaty with the Mercosur countries — Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay — on Jan. 12.

...

The EU-Mercosur trade pact would create a 780 million-consumer market, phasing out tariffs on goods such as cars and giving Europe wider access to Mercosur’s vast agricultural sector. The deal would offer both sides an alternative to the US after President Donald Trump imposed a slate of global tariffs over the past year.

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The proposed accord is the largest ever negotiated by the EU. For more than two decades, talks have perpetually paused and restarted as officials tried to appease concerns over both environmental protections and agrifood standards for the Mercosur bloc.

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Here is the original report published by Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service

After statements about an alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian leader Vladimir Putin's residence, Ukrainian intelligence is detecting the Kremlin's spread of "new fabricated information pretexts to prepare Russian and foreign audiences for further escalation."

"We predict with high probability a shift from manipulative influence to an armed provocation by Russian special services with significant human casualties. Expected timing — ahead of or during Orthodox Christmas celebrations. The provocation site could be a religious building or other object with high symbolic value in Russia or temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories," the FIS said.

According to intelligence, to fabricate evidence of Ukrainian involvement, debris from Western-made strike UAVs will be delivered to the provocation site from the line of contact.

"Exploiting fear and committing terrorist acts with human casualties under a 'false flag' fully matches the style of Russian special services. Putin's regime has repeatedly used this tactic inside Russia, and now the same model is being exported abroad, indirectly confirmed by public statements from senior Russian officials," the FIS said.

...

A related report, citing Ukrainian Military Intel, says that, "To falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, fragments of Western-made attack UAVs will be used, which will be delivered to the site of the provocation from the line of combat contact."

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44883299

From February 24, 2022, to January 4, 2026, Ukrainian law enforcement officers recorded 191,822 crimes committed by Russian occupiers.

Of these, 174,883 are war crimes, 9,380 are crimes against the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and 4,639 are crimes related to collaborationism. Another 426 cases of high treason were recorded.

Also, 144 criminal proceedings were initiated for sexual crimes committed by Russian occupiers.

...

At the same time, during the full-scale invasion, 678 children died in Ukraine, 2,315 of them were injured, 2,232 went missing, and 20,000 were deported to Russia.

Another 49,420 children were found and 1,943 children were returned.

...

During 2025, Russia launched more than 60,000 guided aerial bombs, about 2,400 missiles, and over 100,000 drones at Ukraine. Air raid sirens sounded at least 19,033 times across Ukraine.

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44860986

Archived version

The Irish Military Intelligence Service (IMIS) has provided confidential briefings to university leaders, warning them about the risks associated with Chinese engagement in sensitive areas of research, particularly in fields that could be adapted for military use.

In the first authorised interview by the organisation, a senior IMIS officer said Ireland’s relationship with China posed a unique challenge, as the country enjoyed a beneficial economic relationship with Beijing, but said Irish universities had been warned about the potential consequences.

“It can be hugely detrimental to the West if you empower them [China] by educating them simply because they come to a university with funds. This can be hugely detrimental to the West if you teach them how to twist a knot to the left or right, which helps them to develop a weapon or military application.

We made these points to the universities and it was very successful. It’s done discreetly to empower and protect our democratic institutions,” he said. Irish third-level institutions have collaborated with Chinese universities, which have been linked to cyberattacks and nuclear research.The Irish Military Intelligence Service has provided confidential briefings to university leaders, warning them about the risks associated with Chinese engagement in sensitive areas of research, particularly in fields that could be adapted for military use.

...

Irish third-level institutions have collaborated with Chinese universities, which have been linked to cyberattacks and nuclear research.

The intelligence service also identified Russia as one of the primary threats to the state’s national security and confirmed it had successfully disrupted the activities of foreign spies operating here, ­forcing some to leave the country.

Spies have been made to “pack their bags and go home” after their activities were “disrupted”, the officer said, which made it untenable for them to continue operating here without the need to make an arrest.

“They don’t necessarily know that we’ve been in the background but we have had a lot of success doing that,” he said.

...

The secret organisation said it worked alongside the militaries of European countries including Britain, France and Germany, helping to protect them from aggressive acts by hostile states while upholding Ireland’s stated position of neutrality.

The officer described IMIS as being a “good European neighbour”. The Sunday Times agreed not to identify the officer by name, rank or appearance, or to record the interview, but he plays a part in briefing the government on national defence and authorising covert operations mounted by secretive branches of the military to protect Ireland.

The decision to allow the interview reflects mounting concern within the military about the scale of hostile activity targeting Ireland, and a belief that the public must be made aware of how modern conflict is already being waged below the threshold of war.

...

In a related report from October, an investiation revealed how China’s United Front spy network has sought to influence Irish politicians and exploited a residency scheme.

... China’s intelligence services are infamous for their slow, methodical cultivation of contacts in positions of power — a strategy that embeds them in political and business life long before their aims become clear. The operation targeting Leinster House took years, indicating it was run by the United Front, a shadowy organisation that organises influence operations, but it may also have involved the Ministry of State Security (MSS), China’s foreign intelligence service.

“The United Front is a network of organisations and individuals working under a degree of guidance and control from the Chinese Communist Party. It helps legitimise the party inside China and manage political representation while also being used to push international objectives such as political influence in foreign countries,” Alex Joske, the author of Spies and Lies: How China’s Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World, said ...

The United Front’s structure is vast and under President Xi it has become a central instrument of Beijing statecraft. It extends its reach through an array of friendship associations, business forums and student groups ...

The UF was also responsible for attempts to secure access to the British royal family by befriending the Duke of York. Prince Andrew first met the suspected agent, Yang Tengbo, in 2013 at a reception during the Shanghai Grand Prix. Yang later became a confidant of the duke until he was banned from entering Britain on national security grounds.

The full scale of the damage done to Irish interests may be far greater than the government can imagine, however. The agent at the centre of the scandal is part of a larger network of Chinese nationals who have acquired significant wealth in Ireland. An analysis of one business showed it acquired a significant state property in return for investment into a company that appears to have stopped trading and is defunct ...

The threat posed by hostile states such as Russia and China has been identified as one of the most pressing challenges for the government, specifically Jim O’Callaghan, the justice minister, and Harris, now foreign affairs and defence minister ...

Chung Ching Kwong, a senior analyst at the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance in Britain, described UF operations in Ireland as part of wider “grey zone” activity by Beijing in the European Union. Her research has previously uncovered the existence of UF stations in Dublin, two in Cork and one at the University of Galway, identified using information from publicly available Chinese records ...

“At some point intelligence communities will have to come up with a whole-of-state approach to protect ­society. But I haven’t seen those kinds of discussions happening yet,” she said.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44807882

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44807878

War-driven boom fades

The year 2025 marked the end of Russia’s wartime growth spurt of 2023-24. After two years of expansion of more than 4%, GDP growth for 2025 is expected to slow to around 1% or lower, with the same headwinds likely to persist into 2026.

The economy has largely exhausted the temporary drivers that underpinned growth in 2023 and 2024. In 2023, rapid expansion reflected a rebound from the shock of 2022, when the economy was forced to rapidly reorient toward wartime production.

In 2024, growth rested on a different pillar: a sharp rise in state spending. Federal expenditures increased by roughly a quarter that year, rising to 40.2 trillion rubles ($502.5 billion) from 32.35 trillion rubles ($404.4 billion) in 2023, injecting demand into the economy.

Those drivers were largely absent in 2025, and there is no obvious catalyst to revive growth in 2026.

...

Tax burden rises as revenues erode

For the first time since the pandemic, Russia collected less budget revenue in 2025 than originally planned. When the 2025 budget was approved, revenues were set at 40.3 trillion rubles ($503.8 billion). Updated forecasts suggest actual receipts will come in closer to 36.6 trillion rubles ($457.5 billion).

This marks a break from the previous three years, including 2022, when revenues consistently exceeded initial projections.

The shortfall partly reflects weaker tax intake amid slowing growth, as well as falling oil prices and Western sanctions that have widened the discount Russia must offer buyers for its crude.

Oil and gas revenues in 2025 are now projected at 8.7 trillion rubles ($108.8 billion), well below the originally planned 10.9 trillion rubles ($136.3 billion). With growth slowing and oil prices under pressure, 2026 is likely to bring another year of weak budget revenues.

...

Despite the economic slowdown, Russian authorities have little room to cut military spending as the war in Ukraine drags on.

President Vladimir Putin has shown no sign of backing down from his maximalist demands, repeatedly saying Russia is prepared to fight until it secures control over the four Ukrainian regions it claims to have annexed.

Officially, spending on national defense is set at 13.5 trillion rubles ($168.8 billion) in 2025 and 12.93 trillion rubles ($161.6 billion) in 2026. But actual outlays, including classified spending, are likely to be higher.

Russia does not disclose full military expenditures in its federal budget, publishing only planned figures.

Officials occasionally provide partial disclosures. In December, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said defense spending amounted to 7.3% of GDP in 2025.

With GDP estimated at 217.3 trillion rubles ($2.72 trillion) in 2025, this implies total defense spending of around 15.86 trillion rubles ($198.3 billion), well above the figures published in the budget.

...

Web archive link

Plans are under way to drop dozens of devices from military aircraft into the waters off the coast of Ireland to help detect Russian submarines. The project forms part of Government efforts in increase the State’s “maritime domain awareness” in response to increasing concerns about the vulnerability of subsea infrastructure, such as communications cables and energy connectors, to attack or sabotage.

...

The technology is viewed as vital due to the increased presence of Russian military ships in the Irish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

This includes Russian intelligence-gathering surface vessels such as the Yantar, which has entered the Irish EEZ on several occasions in recent years. Security officials believe it is usually accompanied by a Russian submarine. It is also capable of deploying its own on-board submersible.

...

Archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44569659

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44569658

Here is the entire report by S&P: Russia Manufacturing PMI (pdf)

TL;DR:

• Russian manufacturing output in December decreased for the tenth month running, and at the fastest pace since March 2022 due to weak demand conditions and a reduction in new orders.
• In line with lower new orders, Russian manufacturers cut their workforce numbers at the end of the year. Employment has fallen in three of the last four months.
• Goods producers were less confident in the outlook for output over the coming year in December. The level of optimism dropped to the lowest since May 2022 amid concerns regarding subdued demand conditions.
• December data signaled an increase in cost burdens at Russian manufacturers. The pace of inflation was the fastest since March as firms noted higher supplier and raw material prices. That said, the rate of increase was well below the series trend.

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44569932

• European Union has agreed to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports
• Decline in imports follows closure of Ukrainian route
• TurkStream is the only remaining route

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The EU has said it will cease importing Russian gas by the end of 2027, as part of it effort to overcome the bloc's dependency on Russian energy and to withhold funds that could be used for its military campaign in Ukraine.

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Previously, Europe was Russia's biggest source of budget revenues from oil and gas sales, on the basis of pipelines that were built from the Soviet Union to western Europe in the 1960s and 1970s.

Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe peaked at more than 175-180 billion cubic metres per year in 2018-2019 - and were worth tens of billions for Gazprom and the Russian state that holds a controlling stake in the company.

...

But this year, Gazprom's supplies totalled just 18 bcm and were sent through the TurkStream undersea pipeline after Ukraine chose not to renew the transit deal with Russia.

That is the lowest level since the early 1970s.

...

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44501621

TL;DR:

• The vast majority of cotton used by global fashion brands is sourced in East Turkistan, China's Xinjiang region, where a largely Muslim Uyghur population as the biggest minority group is subject to extreme persecution by the Chinese state, including torture, rape, forced sterilisation, and slave-like labour conditions
• Experts say the EU Forced Labour Regulation that will come into force in December 2027 is an important step, but urge for further steps, e.g., a law forcing brands to disclose their steps taken to prevent forced labour in their supply chains
• Financial issues and costs of tracking material back to their origin is no excuse, experts say

...

Most customers walking into Dublin city centre clothes shops would not dream of buying products linked to forced labour practices.

And yet many of them may be doing exactly that, without realising. That was the core claim made in a recent RTÉ Investigates documentary, which reported that supplies sold to many Irish retailers could be linked to forced labour.

Many of these firms reportedly source cotton from Xinjiang, a region in northwest China where the largely Muslim Uyghur population is the biggest minority group.

...

Many international retailers have pledged to stop buying cotton sourced from the region. However, RTÉ revealed that suppliers to many Irish retailers still have links to these areas.

...

Rubens Carvalho, deputy director at environmental non-profit Earthsight, points out: “The average person who walks into a shop doesn’t wish to be complicit in forced labour and would probably be upset to find out they could be inadvertent accomplices.”

...

Take the example of Xinjiang. If brands have said they will not buy from the area, why does cotton linked to the region still end up in shops?

A key problem ... is the certification systems used by retailers. Most of these schemes don’t give significant detail on where cotton is actually sourced from.

For example, a type of certification system used by many retailers is called “mass balance”.

Here, the certification body inspects cotton farms to ensure they operate ethically. However, it allows for the mixing of certified and non-certified cotton. So a product can be sold with ‘60 per cent certified’ cotton. This means that while 60 per cent of the cotton is from certified farms, the source of the remaining 40 per cent is unknown.

“The problem is that once you attach a sustainability label to goods, it can provide a misleading image,” says Carvalho.

...

Take Better Cotton, which describes itself as the largest cotton sustainability programme in the world. The body is funded by retailers and brands.

It clearly states that cotton which is certified under the Better Cotton Initiative “is not traceable to its country of origin”.

“This doesn’t allow consumers of goods to have visibility over where their goods come from,” says Carvalho.

...

“For large companies, it shouldn’t be hard or expensive to do,” he says. “You could use barcodes or QR codes in cotton bales, for example.” But Dr Len Wassenaar, a leading expert in the type of testing used by cotton retailers, says this could also cause issues. “It is easy to change a label or a barcode,” he says.

“When there are pennies on the pound to be made, there will be fraud in so many areas, not just cotton. That’s why chemical tests are so compelling.”

...

Dr Wassenaar points out that the testing companies often don’t publicly share their work, meaning it can’t be verified by other scientists.

“[Chemical testing] is a powerful tool, but transparency is needed,” he says.

...

Patricia Carrier, a human rights lawyer with the Coalition to End Forced Labour in the Uyghur region, says attempts to certify cotton late in the supply process create too many issues.

She says it would be better if large retailers and brands insisted on traceability from the very start of the production process.

“No certification is going to be able to guarantee a retailer that their product isn’t tainted by cotton from the region… Only a full mapping of the supply can show if a brand or retailer is linked to a region.”

...

Carrier says [costs of tracing back cotton are] no excuse. She also points out that EU legislators are pushing for this reform to happen.

Last year, the EU introduced the Forced Labour Regulation.

This bans products made with forced labour from being sold in the bloc. Regulators can force retailers which break the rules to withdraw their products from the market.

The rules will only come into force in December 2027 and Carrier says there are still question marks over how enforcement will work in practice.

...

“The EU Forced Labour Regulation is a great starting point.”

Carrier says retailers should start looking now to “shift their supply chains out of the Uyghur region”, so they’re not caught out once the new rules take effect.

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Nessa Cosgrove, a Labour senator, says the EU’s Forced Labour Regulation ... also calls on the Irish government to “go further” and pass Labour’s Exploitation and Trafficking Bill.

This would require companies to report annually on the measures they are taking to ensure that forced labour materials aren’t in their products.

“Irish people want to know that when we shop on our own high streets, we’re not contributing to misery and exploitation elsewhere,” she says.

...

Archived link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44389052

UK's Secret Intelligence Service MI6 is right to warn about Russia’s campaign of petty sabotage against the West. The goal is to disrupt and distract.

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Three Bulgarians [painting] red hands on Paris’s Holocaust Memorial ... An arson attack on an Ikea store in Vilnius, vandalising phone towers in Sweden and hacking the Czech railway operator, all in the past 12 months. Moscow has unleashed its intelligence agencies to carry out what seem petty incidents of sabotage. The International Institute for Strategic Studies has recorded at least 67 such incidents since 2022 in countries all over Europe thought to be linked to Russia.

Although attribution is often difficult, and some incidents will have nothing to do with Russia, it is clear that Putin’s regime is conducting a campaign of disruption and destruction in Europe. [UK's Spy chief Blaise] Metreweli called this “export of chaos” ... to divide, distract and dismay the West.

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There has been something of a shift in Russia’s campaign in recent years. In the past, the focus was on disinformation and amplifying disruptive political messages. Unlike the USSR, Putin’s Russia is essentially post-ideological. It can thus be all things to all people, and promote every useful message — from hard-right migrant alarmism to hard-left anticapitalism; regional secessionism to blood and soil nationalism; Black Lives Matter to the National Rifle Association.

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Sometimes, there are clear practical benefits for Moscow, such as the placing of cameras along Polish railway lines on which aid to Ukraine flows. (The cameras were discovered by railway staff and six people were arrested in 2023.) In other cases, operations are still about heightening division in society: the red-hand graffiti in Paris, for example, was used by Russian disinformation outlets to paint France as a haven for antisemitism.

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Moscow’s goal now seems to be to start to make people feel that their country’s support for Ukraine affects them directly. A [UK intel] GCHQ analyst, for example, told me of apparent efforts to temporarily degrade internet bandwidth, noting that “it may sound trivial, but think of the annoyance if you can’t do your online banking, or the film you wanted to download takes hours buffering”.

No one will go to war because their train is delayed or their phone signal wobbly — but they might begin to think twice about supporting another country’s war if the toll of inconveniences begins to mount. It also contributes to another Kremlin (and, indeed, Chinese) talking point, that degenerate western democracies simply don’t work.

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One of the reasons it is so difficult to resist and prepare for these attacks is their very variety. In May 2024, a German arms factory was gutted in a blaze the authorities blamed on Russian agents. In July 2024, improvised explosives hidden inside electric massagers detonated in DHL logistics hubs in Germany, Poland and the UK. The next month, mysterious break-ins on military bases in Germany prompted fears that water supplies had been tainted.

On Christmas Day last year, an ageing tanker leaving a Russian port seems to have dragged its anchors across the Estlink 2 underwater power cable between Estonia and Finland, cutting it. Last month Polish railway lines were cut by a bomb, and in recent weeks, what were described as “military-style drones” shadowed President Zelensky’s jet as he flew to Dublin.

...

This also highlights another virtue of this new strategy for the Kremlin: it encourages and mobilises our own paranoia. Many of the alleged “Russian drones” which shut down airports across Europe in the autumn turned out either to be nothing to do with Russia — or not even to be drones at all. Once people were on their guard, though, they began seeing drones everywhere, and risk-averse airport operators duly shut down flights as soon as a report came in .... A Polish diplomat put it starkly: “The Kremlin has learned that it cannot get Europe to like it, so it hopes to force concessions on us by making us fear it.”

...

One striking characteristic of the attacks to date has been that they tend to come in waves, followed by periods of relative calm, with little real connection to the military or political situation. The concern in some intelligence circles is that this is still a campaign at its “beta testing” phase — that after each spate of attacks, the Russians regroup and consider the lessons.

“It’s when they think they know what works best,” one British security official speculated, “that we might see them ready for a serious, sustained challenge.”

Nor is it a challenge likely to end if and when there is peace in Ukraine. With the White House now seen as a potential partner, Russian propaganda has pivoted to seeing Europe as its main enemy given its continued support for Kyiv. We may well have to cope with such attacks as long as Putin is in the Kremlin.

...

In many ways, the best, if less exciting response is to go back to how Europe coped with political terrorism in the 1970s and 1980s: foiling as many plots as possible, but accepting that some would inevitably succeed. The answer was — and is — not to let that panic us or force a change in policy: to keep calm and carry on.

Archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44387723

The chief legal counsel for the Free Speech Union in the UK was approached three times by accounts claiming to be researchers, but something seemed suspicious.

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[Bryn Harris'] name is associated with the Free Speech Union's [FSU’s] submissions to government on higher education legislation, passed in 2023, to strengthen legal protections for free speech and academic freedom across universities. It was intended to lessen the influence of Confucius institutes, Beijing-funded programmes that have been used for academic interference and to control the narrative around China at UK campuses.

He enlisted the help of UK-China Transparency (UKCT), a charity that researches the ties between Britain and China and focuses on the work of the communist party.

...

Harris had first been contacted by a researcher called Lala Chen in June, another in July who called herself Ailin, and then a third woman called Emily in October.

UKCT arranged a technical analysis, which established that while the trio purported to work from the US, they were in the Asia-Pacific region. One used the photographs of a well known Korean actress, and another used an avatar from a Facebook dating service.

Harris suspected he was the target of a “China capture” campaign. It comes after MI5 issued a recent alert to MPs and peers that they were being targeted for information by Chinese intelligence agents. The Security Service identified two Linkedin profiles, used by Chinese spies, purporting to be “civilian recruitment headhunters” and targeting politicians to solicit insights and secrets.

MI5 also warned that Chinese spies were creating fake job adverts to try and lure government staff, academics, think tank employees and private defence contractors into handing over information. Thousands of suspicious job adverts have been posted to online job platforms “with more appearing daily”, according to the National Protective Security Authority, a branch of MI5.

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The targeting was not particularly sophisticated, Whitehall sources said, acknowledging that Chinese agents were sending out thousands of approaches and “kissing a lot of frogs”, but only needed one person to be lured in to consider the technique a win.

...

While Harris was suspicious of the approaches immediately, he said he wanted to raise further awareness so that other professionals would be wary of similar approaches and job offers.

Sam Dunning, the director of UKCT, said it had also had repeated hostile cyber phishing attempts including one involving the impersonation of one of its advisers.

He said UK scientists were also receiving frequent research collaboration and job offers.

“It is remarkable that British citizens going about their lives should receive approaches of this kind. The strategy behind such approaches is exploitative, divisive and dishonest. We should ask ourselves: if this is what it is like now, then what does the future hold?”

...

Archive link

Addition:

Chinese spies are everywhere in UK. I’ve been followed to the pub -- [Archive link}

A dissident living in London reveals how agents have infiltrated British institutions, watching, following and feeding information back home

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44343033

A survey of export firms published on Friday by the Finnish Chamber of Commerce indicates that most have high hopes for next year.

Nearly two-thirds of companies that responded to the poll expect exports to grow in 2026. That's up by six percentage points from a year ago, when six out of 10 said so. Expectations for the coming year are the most positive since 2022, when the question was first included in an annual corporate survey.

Last year, 11 percent of companies forecast that exports would decline, while now the corresponding figure was seven percent.

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In particular, firms expect that Germany's planned 500-billion-euro investments in infrastructure, digitalisation and defence will drive exports in Finland as well. Last week, Germany launched an additional 30-billion-euro initiative to boost private investments, Reuters reports.

Some 44 percent of respondents said they expect to benefit from those investments.

"In particular, companies feel that their prospects are brightened by investments in the defence sector and the green transition," Päivi Pohjanheimo, Director of International Affairs at the Central Chamber of Commerce, said in a press release on Friday.

"The construction and defence sectors particularly believe that they will benefit from German investments," she added.

...

Hardly any firms said that they have moved operations or production to the United States as a result of President Donald Trump's tariffs policy. Instead, 80 percent of respondents said they are more interested in the EU market, with many expanding their European business due to the tariff policy.

...

"The answers clearly reflect the current geopolitical situation: the unpredictability of the United States is worrying export companies. Instead, respondents see the EU and Nordic countries as safe and increasingly important trading partners," said Pohjanheimo.

...

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44340351

...

[Putin said that the task] had been accomplished: inflation would end the year below 6%.

Yet the Central Bank undercut that narrative almost immediately. Contrary to expectations, it lowered the key rate from 16.5% to just 16%.

If inflation truly is below 6%, that implies a real interest rate of roughly 10% — among the highest in the world. Brazil, often cited as an outlier, sits at 9.2%, while Mexico at 5.3%. Turkey and Argentina, despite having interest rates of around 38% and 29% respectively, do not even make the list because inflation there is near or above those levels.

[Russia Central Bank Governor Elvira] Nabiullina’s remarks after this month's rate meeting seemed to support this. Inflation has declined, she said, but not sustainably. The 6% figure only appeared in weekly data, which is not a reliable basis for identifying trends. And although inflation fell in November, it rose in October.

And beginning in January, it is expected to accelerate again, driven by a higher value-added tax (VAT), now applied to a wider swath of businesses, and by another round of increases in utility tariffs.

...

Nabiullina, who once cloaked bad news in careful technocratic language, sounded increasingly like a Soviet official reciting a familiar formula: yes, there are shortcomings, but the strengths outweigh them. When all else fails, there is always the reassurance that the economy is “returning to a trajectory of balanced growth.”

In other words, the economy is shrinking — but it is shrinking according to plan.

...

The government’s long-term budget forecast was striking in two respects. First, its sheer horizon: projections extend to 2042. Second, its candor: the budget is expected to remain in deficit throughout that entire period.

Even here, Soviet habits are evident. Oil is optimistically forecast at $69 a barrel by 2031. Officials stress that oil revenues will gradually give way to tax income. Putin promised that the higher VAT is not permanent, though he did not say when it would end. One might reasonably suspect it will end in 2042.

The date itself feels telling. It invites a grim literary echo of Venedikt Yerofeyev and Vladimir Voinovich’s dystopian “Moscow 2042.” It is hard to believe the choice was accidental.

...

Then, too, Soviet decline was accompanied by triumphant propaganda. The language has changed, but not the function. Soon, Russians will be told daily how Ukrainian and European “militarism” obstructs Russia’s desire for peace. The euphemism of “forcing peace” requires no invention; it was tested long ago.

If this déjà vu is more than psychological, it is possible to sketch a timeline for how long the Russian economy will last. Oil prices collapsed in 1985. Though the Soviet Union survived until 1991, its economy became effectively nonviable by 1989.

...

But the Soviet example suggests that public patience can end suddenly and collectively. Military spending now stands at 7.3% of GDP, according to a presentation by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, a figure comparable to late-Soviet levels.

...

Even if fighting were to end, Russia will be paying for this war for years, not least through high interest costs on government bonds. This year alone, the state issued nearly 8 trillion rubles’ ($102.5 billion) worth.

Meanwhile, the government is already propping up struggling sectors ranging from carmakers and aircraft manufacturers to railways, coal, metals and oil.

Even defense enterprises are faltering. Workers at the Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant, a strategic supplier to the Navy, recently complained of unpaid wages. The company’s director responded angrily, accusing them of petty self-interest at a time of national struggle.

...

Whether this story concludes suddenly and almost bloodlessly, as the Soviet collapse did, or drags on in a long and painful decline is impossible to know. History does not repeat itself exactly.

But when economic narratives begin to sound this familiar, it is hard not to start counting the years.

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44329606

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44329196

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The university’s joint venture campus in China maintains partnerships and close links with entities sanctioned by Britain, the US, EU and others for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and assisting China’s military modernisation and human rights violations, an investigation by the Australian Strategic Research Institute (ASPI) has found.

The previously unreported links to sanctions highlight the risks posed by foreign science, technology and academic partnerships in China in a period of heightened geopolitical rivalry, intensifying technological competition and deepening China-Russia cooperation. The joint venture campus’s partnerships cover a range of areas but centre on critical technologies, many with both military and civilian applications.

These partnerships include a new China-Russia cooperation centre whose Russian co-director is affiliated with a sanctioned Russian government agency; a formal new initiative with a leading Chinese government supercomputing centre that was placed on the US federal entity list in 2021 for involvement in China’s military modernisation efforts; and a chips school co-founded by a US-sanctioned Chinese government semiconductor research institute. Top staff in China have said the joint campus aims to design and manufacture its own semiconductors.

...

The joint venture campus, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU), was established in 2006 by the University of Liverpool and its partner institution, Xi’an Jiaotong University, a leading Chinese defence university that has supplied the Rocket Force of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and is supervised by China’s defence-industry ministry. Located in Suzhou, a city in Jiangsu province, XJTLU is the largest foreign joint venture university in China and one of many such joint campuses and institutes that have been formed in China with US, European, British, Australian and other foreign partners in recent decades.

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The University of Liverpool is one of Britain’s top research universities. It is a member of the country’s prestigious Russell Group of research-intensive universities and receives defence, security and intelligence funding from Western governments. In September 2024, for example, the defence ministers of the US, Britain and Australia announced in an official AUKUS communique that the University of Liverpool was an inaugural winner of the AUKUS Electronic Warfare Innovation Prize Challenge.

...

XJTLU has become a research powerhouse, with around 25,000 students and 1,000 academic staff members. It houses several provincial and municipal key research institutes, including a national supercomputing centre, a robotics research institute, and an advanced semiconductor research institute that partners with smart-city company China Huaxin.

In 2024, XJTLU received funding from the PLA’s National University of Defense Technology for a research project called ‘Deep Learning-based Adversarial Sample Defense Technology for Communication Signal Modulation Recognition’. In 2025, an XJTLU research team set a new global record in an international competition in quantum-resistant cryptography. Researchers from the University of Liverpool also collaborate with XJTLU researchers on topics such as radar and autonomous driving.

...

In April 2025, XJTLU launched a research partnership with the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, one of seven Chinese supercomputing groups added to the US federal entity list in 2021 due to their involvement in China’s military modernisation efforts.

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XJTLU’s School of CHIPS, which focuses on research and development for advanced computing chips, was co-founded in 2019 by a Chinese government research institute, the Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, that was placed on the US federal entity list in 2024 for acting against US national security and foreign policy interests. The dean of the XJTLU School of CHIPS, Wei Chen, said in 2024 his goal was for XJTLU to design and manufacture its own semiconductors.

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Sugon, a Chinese supercomputer manufacturer that co-established XJTLU’s School of AI and Advanced Computing in 2018, was added to the US federal entity list in 2019 due to the ‘publicly acknowledged’ military end uses of its high-performance computers.

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XJTLU also hosts a joint lab with iFlytek, a Chinese technology company added to the US federal entity list in 2019 for its role in the Chinese government’s high-tech surveillance regime targeting Muslim minorities in China’s Xinjiang region.

...

The University of Liverpool website, which has a dedicated page for the XJTLU partnership and related news, does not mention the China-Russia centre, XJTLU’s joint lab with iFlytek, XJTLU’s new partnership with the supercomputing centre in Wuxi, or the school’s aspirations to make its own semiconductors in China.

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Britain itself has a range of sanctions targeting Russia, including some that prohibit the provision of professional and business services ‘to a person connected with Russia’ and which apply to ‘any UK persons anywhere.’ The British government also placed research and innovation sanctions on Russia in 2022. This included pausing British public funds being spent on projects ‘with a Russian dimension’ and ceasing collaborative projects with Russia. At that time the British government also commissioned an assessment to ‘isolate and freeze activities which benefit the Russian regime’.

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In addition to its success in winning an inaugural AUKUS electronic-warfare innovation prize, the University of Liverpool has active grants from the European Commission and US government, including grants from the US Air Force and FBI.

...

The XJTLU China-Russia centre’s Russian co-director, Artem Semenov, is an adviser to the Moscow regional government and a member of the public advisory council of Rossotrudnichestvo, a humanitarian and cultural agency under the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The EU sanctioned Rossotrudnichestvo in 2022, describing it as ‘the main state agency projecting the Kremlin’s soft power and hybrid influence,’ adding that it acted as an ‘umbrella organization for a network of Russian compatriots and agents of influence, and it funds various public diplomacy and propaganda projects, consolidating the activities of pro-Russian players and disseminating the Kremlin’s narratives.’

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A former Russian senator and current adviser to the Moscow regional government, Olga Zabralova, led the Russian government delegation that attended the centre’s launch. Zabralova is sanctioned by Britain, the US, the EU, France, Switzerland, Belgium, Ukraine, Australia, New Zealand and Monaco. She was a member of the Russian Federation Council that ratified the government’s decision to annex parts of occupied Ukraine. XJTLU hosted Zabralova and her delegation at X-Bar, the student activity and recreation centre.

...

In a written response to questions from ASPI, a University of Liverpool spokesperson said, ‘The University of Liverpool has no involvement in XJTLU’s Centre for China-Russia Humanitarian Cooperation and Development, nor with the companies mentioned ...’

...

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44149336

Archive link

A satirical sculptor from Düsseldorf has expressed bewilderment after Russian prosecutors charged him in a Moscow court with criminally defaming the country’s army.

Jacques Tilly, 62, is Germany’s most prominent designer of carnival floats and has spent 40 years creating outsized and grotesque papier-mâché models of figures including President Trump, Angela Merkel and Baroness May of Maidenhead.

Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, his floats have repeatedly mocked President Putin’s brutality.

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This year’s float for the Düsseldorf carnival depicted Trump and Putin shaking hands, with President Zelensky crushed in their grip and haemorrhaging blood, along with the caption: “Hitler-Stalin pact 2.0”.

Previous editions have shown Putin choking on a map of Ukraine and posing naked alongside Trump and President Xi of China, with a gigantically enlarged scrotum emblazoned with the words “Make Russia great again”.

...

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44109748

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“According to information available to us, since November 2023, Belarus has been implementing a classified state project codenamed Uchastok, which involves the creation of full-cycle production of Soviet-caliber artillery and rocket ammunition – 122 mm and 152 mm," said Vladimir Zhihar, an official representative of the Belarusian opposition initiative BELPOL.

"The project is strategically linked to the interests of Russia’s Ministry of Defense, as the final products are intended for export and use in the war against Ukraine,” Zhihar said.

According to him, the project is expected to be completed by December 2026 and could significantly strengthen the material and technical support of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. Its implementation is based on a secret order by Aleksandr Lukashenko.

...

The plant was founded by VolatAvto and the state-owned Precision Electromechanics Plant, and is overseen by the State Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus.

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Zhihar also noted that Belarus does not produce any of the critical components required for explosives, making the plant dependent on imported technologies and materials. The main partners in the project are Russia and China.

“Russia supplies production lines and components, is involved in personnel training, and will evidently be the main supplier of explosives and propellants. China, according to our information, is supplying filling lines for 122 mm warheads, participating in personnel training, and providing explosives. Negotiations are also underway with Iran and Pakistan,” Zhihar said.

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Additional facts, documents, and visual materials confirming the implementation of this project are presented in a BELPOL investigation published on the organization’s YouTube channel on Sunday.

...

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44092359

Russian forces have forcibly detained and deported about 50 Ukrainian civilians from the village of Hrabovske in Ukraine’s eastern Sumy region, Dmytro Lubinets, the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, confirmed in a Telegram post on December 21.

Lubinets said Russian troops illegally detained residents of the border village on December 18, held them without access to communication or proper conditions, and on December 20 transported them into Russian territory. He described the actions as a grave violation of international humanitarian law, including unlawful detention and the forced deportation of civilians.

...

Officer of the Main Communications Directorate Dmytro Lykhovii confirmed in a comment to Ukrainian Pravda that up to 50 civilians, mostly elderly men and women who had previously refused evacuation, were taken from the village. One of the abducted residents is reportedly 89 years old.

According to Ukraine’s Joint Forces Task Force, fighting continued overnight as Ukrainian forces moved to push Russian troops out of the area.

...

Addition:

In a report, British newspaper The Times said the fifty civilians were "abducted in ‘medieval’ border raid on Ukrainian village." -- (archived linkhttps://archive.ph/8XvG9#selection-1795.0-1801.266)

... Viktor Trehubov, the head of the Joint Forces Communications Department, said: “It looks like some kind of more localised provocation in an area that was not a key area before. It’s not about strategic goals, it’s about kidnapping people for some kind of political or information attack.”

... Ukraine has previously accused Moscow of systematically abducting civilians from occupied or contested areas, actions Kyiv said violated international humanitarian law.

Russia has also forcibly transferred thousands of civilians, including children, from occupied territory during the war. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants over the alleged deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia, a charge Moscow denies.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44053643

Opinion piece by Sir William Browder, founder and head of the [Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign](Sir William Browder is the author of Red Notice and Freezing Order, and head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign)

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The EU agreed to extend a €90 billion (£79 billion) interest-free loan to Ukraine, intended to safeguard the country’s defences and basic functioning for the next two years.

It was a vital lifeline but it came with a grave failure: the outright rejection of a far bolder and more just plan to confiscate Russia’s frozen central bank assets and put them to work for Ukraine.

...

The assets in question amount to roughly €210 billion in Russian central bank reserves, immobilised inside the EU just weeks after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. They represent a vast war chest belonging to a regime committing mass murder, war crimes and territorial theft in plain sight. Yet they remain untouched, sitting inert in the West’s financial institutions while Ukrainian cities are reduced to rubble.

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The urgency of this moment cannot be overstated. The Brussels summit took place against a backdrop of mounting danger for both Ukraine and Europe. Since returning to office in January, President Trump has followed through on his campaign promise to slash American support for Ukraine. In February 2025, after a shameful attack on President Zelensky in the Oval Office, Trump ordered a full pause on all US military assistance. Up to that point, the United States had provided roughly 40 per cent of Ukraine’s military support. Its sudden withdrawal pushed Kyiv to the edge of disaster.

...

Putin is already testing the boundaries of Western resolve. Russia’s drones have violated Polish airspace. Its fighter jets have breached Estonian skies. In the Baltic Sea, undersea cables have been cut in acts of suspected sabotage. These are calculated provocations, designed to probe Nato’s defences and measure our willingness to respond.

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Instead of making Russia pay for the destruction it has caused, we are asking citizens across Europe to underwrite Ukraine’s survival through public debt. It is a stopgap, not a solution, and it signals weakness where strength is required.

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There was, at least, one modest breakthrough. Days before the summit, the EU invoked an emergency legal mechanism to freeze Russia’s €210 billion in assets indefinitely, rather than renewing the sanctions every six months. Until now, a single member state could veto each renewal.

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What is most dispiriting is why confiscation was rejected. A small group of countries, led by leaders openly sympathetic to Moscow, blocked the plan. Hungary and Slovakia played their expected roles. More shocking was the opposition from the Czech Republic, a country with its own painful history of Russian domination. Belgium, which holds most of the assets through its Euroclear depository, ultimately refused to move forward after its prime minister [Bart De Wever] reportedly was personally threatened by the Kremlin.

This capitulation is shameful. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czechs are all net beneficiaries of EU funds. Yet they have forced the rest of Europe’s 450 million citizens to shoulder the cost of supporting Ukraine, while Putin’s money remains untouched. Taxpayers in Germany, France, the Netherlands and elsewhere will now foot the bill. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is openly mocking Europe’s timidity.

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History teaches us that financial pressure can succeed where diplomacy fails. Russia may not count its dead but it surely count its money. Seizing those frozen reserves would strike at the heart of Putin’s system and hasten an end to the war.

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This debate is not over. The assets remain frozen. The war continues. The moral case for confiscation grows stronger every day. Europe’s leaders must return to this issue. Countries that obstruct justice should face consequences, including reductions in EU funding to offset the cost of the loan. Belgium’s prime minister should be shamed for yielding to intimidation. And the UK, which is not constrained by EU infighting, should set an example. Instead of copying the EU and standing down, which it announced on Friday, the UK should confiscate the billions in Russian assets frozen in London and transfer them to Ukraine.

After two decades confronting the Kremlin, I have learnt one lesson above all others: evil advances when good people hesitate. Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a divided and fearful West. We must prove him wrong. Confiscating his frozen billions is not theft. It is restitution. It is justice. And it is long overdue.

Archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44036405

Web archive link

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On Dec. 15, the European Union imposed sanctions on the International Russophile Movement, or IRM. Few people had heard of it, but over the past three years it has effectively replaced official pro-Kremlin organizations formerly operating in the EU, where life for them became far more difficult after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Russian World Foundation, the Gorchakov Foundation, and Pravfond — all controlled by Russia’s Foreign Ministry — faced sanctions, asset freezes, staff expulsions and increased oversight. As a result, the IRM emerged in 2023 under the auspices of the Foreign Ministry and Konstantin Malofeev, a billionaire fraudster with ties to Russian intelligence services.

Although the movement is publicly presented as a grassroots initiative made up of EU citizens, in practice the IRM is backed by several Kremlin influence networks. The “Russophiles” openly said they feared sanctions and did not plan to create legal entities, but that did not help. The new structure appears headed for the same inglorious fate as the earlier Kremlin puppet organizations that were sanctioned after the start of the full-scale war.

...

An alliance of political marginals and conspiracy theorists

The founding congress of the International Russophile Movement was held in Moscow in March 2023. According to the organizers, around 90 representatives from 42 countries attended the event. Prominent “Russophiles” among the guests included actor Steven Seagal, former French president Charles de Gaulle’s grandson Pierre, and Italian princess Vittoria Alliata di Villafranca (who translated The Lord of the Rings into her native language). The Guardian described the participants as “political marginals and conspiracy theorists.”

Those who came to support and guide the “Russophiles” included Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, his deputies Mikhail Bogdanov and Alexander Grushko; Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, Rossotrudnichestvo head Yevgeny Primakov, “Orthodox oligarch” Konstantin Malofeeev, far-right philosopher Alexander Dugin, and the chairs of the international affairs committees from both chambers of the Russian parliament — LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky and senator Grigory Karasin. At the congress, Lavrov read out a message from Vladimir Putin that noted the “targeted anti-Russian hysteria in many countries” and thanked the participants for their “firm resolve to oppose the Russophobic campaign.” General Charles de Gaulle's grandson Pierre de Gaulle with State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin at a meeting in Moscow

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43978801

Web archive link

The British government said Friday it is investigating a “cyber incident” following news reports that hackers linked to China have gained access to thousands of confidential documents held by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Trade Minister Chris Bryant said the investigation began in October and the government believes there is a “fairly low risk” that anyone’s personal information has been compromised.

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The allegations come at a sensitive time in Britain’s relationship with China as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government tries to rebuild trade and diplomatic links that have been strained by concerns about Chinese spying and human rights abuses.

Starmer reportedly plans to travel to China in late January, the first time a British prime minister will visit the country since 2018. Meanwhile, the government has delayed a decision on China’s plans to build a massive new embassy in London amid criticism that it could be used as a base for espionage.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43978709

Web archive link

Russia carried out cyberattacks against infrastructure and websites in Denmark in 2024 and 2025, Danish authorities say in a new assessment published this week describing new cases not previously reported.

Moscow was responsible for “destructive and disruptive” cyberattacks on a Danish water utility company in 2024 and a series of denial of service attacks which overwhelmed Danish websites ahead of regional and local elections last month, Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service said in a statement Thursday. The water company said the attack caused pipes to burst, leaving homes temporarily without water.

Jan Hansen, the head of the Tureby Alkestrup Waterworks southwest of the capital Copenhagen, said his advice to other companies was not to cut costs on cybersecurity and to take out cyber insurance. The attack happened, he said, because the waterworks switched to cheaper cybersecurity, which was not as secure as that previously.

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The Danish intelligence service said the attacks were part of Russia’s “hybrid war” against the West and an attempt to create instability. It said Moscow’s cyberattacks are part of a broader campaign to undermine and punish countries which support Ukraine. Russian hackers have previously been accused of carrying out hacks on other water facilities in Europe — including on a Norwegian dam where Norwegian authorities said hackers opened valves to allow water to pour out.