this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2025
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Humans are bad at probability, and that's mostly why they gamble too.
Every wheel draw is supposed to be independent (it's not totally so because computer "random" is really a pseudo-random algorithm, but close enough). So every time you draw, the odds are 1:4. Previous draws don't matter.
On an infinitely large number of draws, you'd see a 1/4 success rate. This doesn't mean you can't fail a dozen times in a row (the probability of that is (3/4)^12, about 3%... It happens).