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In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand (theconversation.com)

submitted 6 days ago by humanspiral@lemmy.ca to c/economics@lemmy.ml

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[–] 52fighters@lemmy.sdf.org 6 points 6 days ago (14 children)

Most of this tariff business is about economics but I feel like that's just not true with China. There's too many people saying there's going to be a real war break out in 2027 or 2028 and that American firms need to decouple from China. It might just be that the US government needs to give them a hard push to make that happen. Being dependent on China during the opening days of war would be devastating for many US firms.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 6 points 6 days ago (13 children)

There’s too many people saying there’s going to be a real war break out in 2027 or 2028 and that American firms need to decouple from China.

Very high risk of war when trade breaks down. As in 1930s. Israel/Philippines annihilation, Panama, Columbia could all be on the table. Korea reunification under best Korea. Taiwan just needs to be blockaded from flights east. Japan needs to be careful too. All of Asia have natural alliance opportunities, but US corruption forces are strong, even when Trump threatens to abandon all allies.

War can be avoided with similar independence/respect to today. But greater subservience to US is the danger, no matter how illogical it is for rulerships to choose that path.

[–] 52fighters@lemmy.sdf.org -2 points 5 days ago (12 children)

All that said, the people of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, and others are anxiously seeking a sign from the US that our military will come to their aid when attacked. Even Vietnam wishes to use the US to balance Chinese power in the east. When China has so many fearful neighbors, that's a sign there's a serious problem with China.

[–] markinov@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

When China has so many fearful neighbors, that's a sign there's a serious problem with China.

The fearful neighbors:

[–] 52fighters@lemmy.sdf.org -1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Exactly. And they want the US to expand military presence. Their fear of China is greater than the number of dots on that map.

[–] markinov@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

how? Your theory of "Their fear of China is greater" and it's a result of that falls as soon as we take into account the history of US being present in those countries even before china became powerful. It was US who expanded in those places even before PRC was a thing and china was fragmented, weak, occupied.

Philippines: U.S. Colonial Period: the United States ruled the Philippines from 1898 to 1946, The Philippines was under American civil and military governance.

south korea: after world war two the divide of korea and US occupation of south korea militarily which is still present

japan: similar story as south korea

[–] 52fighters@lemmy.sdf.org 1 points 4 days ago

And yet, here we are, with these nations joining the US in statements like this-- https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10457869

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