I don't like this theory because they have already had access to this information with social media. Individuals willingly volunteer this information about themselves and their friends, and data brokers would collect and centralize it from multiple sources. This is why some platforms were trying out AI age verification in countries that hadn't officially mandated ID verification yet. They were confident enough, with all the info they had already collected, to assume someone's age. They would hope that the people who fail the check would be few enough to not cause an immediate uproar("just verify with ID, what's the big deal?")

This is most certainly more of an authoritarian power grab to prevent any anonymous criticism what so ever. Id verification will allow them to target any application that does not comply and preserves user privacy. Anyone who does not comply will be implied to be a criminal or enemy of the state. They want to make a system where corporate surveillance cannot be avoided.

The corporations lobbying for this want to benefit from being a part of the fascist state, but don't want to handle any legal obligation or public scrutiny from the obvious damages that will come from collecting this information. That's why you have different companies lobbying for different "solutions"; whatever keeps them from facing repercussions but still makes them money for being a part of the surveillance state is what they will support.