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I built a free game that teaches why timing the market usually fails: you vs a couch that just holds the S&P 500. 84,000 plays in, the couch has won 63%. (beatthecouch.com)

submitted 1 week ago by noir_chat@lemmy.world to c/personalfinance@lemmy.ml

14 comments fedilink hide all child comments

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

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[–] bamboo@lemmy.blahaj.zone 12 points 1 week ago (1 children)

This is pretty fun, good job

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 7 points 1 week ago (1 children)

thank you, glad you enjoyed it

[–] bamboo@lemmy.blahaj.zone 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Have you considered having a "retirement game play mode" where the goal is to achieve some goal amount of money before the couch. This could be a good way to illustrate more longer term investment strategies

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

that's a sweet idea actually. i want to keep the web game very simple to keep the message simpe. but i'm also considering developing this into an app with more features, i'll try to find space for your idea. very appreciated

[–] bamboo@lemmy.blahaj.zone 4 points 1 week ago

Yeah I wouldn't sacrifice the simplicity for more features, the one button buy/sell is a great mechanic.