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I built a free game that teaches why timing the market usually fails: you vs a couch that just holds the S&P 500. 84,000 plays in, the couch has won 63%. (beatthecouch.com)

submitted 1 week ago by noir_chat@lemmy.world to c/personalfinance@lemmy.ml

14 comments fedilink hide all child comments

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

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[–] davel@lemmy.ml 9 points 1 week ago (2 children)

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

[–] trolololol@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

After watching closely how predictable the spacex thing was, and the ai bubble is, I've come to the conclusion that he market is almost always irrational. It resembles some reason during the corrections.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 4 points 1 week ago

heard it before, didn't know about the source, thanks!