Eyeballing the photo is hopeless.
If you want to check credibility, do it the old fashion way, before AI existed: Check the source.
I'll take a stab.
OP is: https://old.reddit.com/user/RustySchmeckleford/
Post history is hidden. And in their entire history, they only have two comments. Weird, but inconclusive.
Dead end.
No results on Tineye. The exact image is one day old on Google Images, but it is showing a few visually similar posts. For example:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/31/a-week-on-the-block-where-alex-pretti-was-killed

An original photo from The Guardian? Reasonable to assume that's real. But that's from Minneapolis.
Alright... let's look for clues. What's NRG Arena?
An arena in Houston, Texas, as it turns out. Found this on Facebook searching for that text:

That's definitely the poster. This is probably some real street corner in Houston. That concert was in 2025, so It's reasonable to assume the poster survived into 2026.
And that lets us narrow down the search. For instance, local Houston news posted this:
https://cw39.com/news/local/houston-ice-agent-shooting/

https://cw39.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2026/07/salgado_araujo_memorial3.jpg
CNN posted the original photo the poster is based on. Again, quite credible:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/07/us/houston-ice-shooting-death

So... is the photo fake?
Shrug.
RustySchmeckleford could've taken a random 2025 photo, a picture of the poster, and AI'd it onto the wall. It's impossible to tell.
But all the components are real.
I'd argue you're asking the wrong question. If some rando in the internet posts a picture, AI or no AI you have no idea if it's real or not. You have to ingest it with that in mind.
To be blunt: you will never know if it's AI or not.
You could dig into the Reddit user or analyze it all you want, you could trace the source of the poster template or pixel peep for artifacts, but fact is this post has zero credibility. That's true of anything from internet strangers.
If you want credible, get info from credible source. It's that simple. /u/RustySchmeckleford/ is not The Guardian.
