I think the majority of lemmy users are vastly unqualified to engage in supposition on this compared to your good self who lives in the region and is connected to many other people who do.
this post was submitted on 01 Mar 2026
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No, don’t think so. After us-Israel murdering Iran’s supreme leader, things will just escalate more.
All these civilians deaths, buildings and homes damaged. It genuinely heart breaking to see. I wish we could just put every “leader” into one room and let them fight it out themselves.
World leaders: "you know that's not gonna happen."
No. DJTs entire MO is pump and dump. This is a 10 day effort. All his military moves are hit and run. Now he will just to a bit more tweeting about how it will go on, both to appease the zionists and to stir unrest in the markets. When everything crashes enough or oil goes up enough because of Hormuz, he will back off, buy the dip and make more money for all his friends.
The pump and dumps are how he keeps everyone protecting him.
Not that the region will stabilise, but the US overt agressive involvement will probably be over by mid March.
I agree with some components of this, but I think you're ascribing too much stategy and planning to Trump's chaotic egotistical whimsy.
I certainly agree that those in his orbit make loads of money by goading him into things and then buying the dip.
However, I don't think that his intention with these things at the outset is to create a dip. With the tariffs for example, I think he genuinely thought that they would stimulate the US economy, and probably still does. He was over-confident and thought he could stare down China, and he only chickened out because the oligarchs told him enough was enough.
I disagree that the pump and dumps are how he keeps everyone protecting him. He makes sure that oligarchs get plenty of tax cuts and no audits or investigations, and that they land lucrative contracts. In turn oligarchs donate to the campaigns of republicans. Everyone in the loop knows that their bread will only continue to be buttered in this fashion if they continue to support Trump. This is how every authoritarian regime ever has worked.
I have no idea what's going to happen in Iran. If the US withdraws in 10 days then wouldn't that create an ideal environment for ISIS or similar? I thought Trump's primary motivation for getting involved was to be able to declare a national emergency in November for the mid terms.
Fair points. I think you’re overestimating how much he still has to say.
Don’t forget he is tired, has tons of medical issues, in serious mental decline, and kinda hates the job. He’s only there because Jack Smith would have changed his KFC buckets for prison food.
The show is run by Jared, and a bunch of coke snorting or drinking sycophants. This one in particular is run by Rubio probably.
But at the end of the day, there’s no heart, no love or compassion. Just money and small dick syndrome.
Not to mention that the USA lost pretty much any war it was doing by itself or in hostile climates. There’s no coalition of the willing and once the Middle East warms up to Summer, it’s over.
To be clear I also do know, there was just this little bit of coke left on the toilet seat from the last guy and I briefly saw things with a bit more clarity.
Yeah I agree that hes over it.
Its all for the LOLs. Like there's not much thought or intent its just that he doesn't want to go to jail, and enjoys being the centre of attention.
If he thought ordering the deaths of a few million people would further either or both of those objectives, he would absolutely press that button on a whim.
then wouldn't that create an ideal environment for ISIS or similar?
That's why Syrian Da'esh prisoners "mysteriously" "escaped" to Iraq.
Not likely this time.
Previously both sides would fire missiles for a few rounds, pretend to have won something and go back to strongly worded statements. This time the US insists on the regime change in Iran. So the Iranian leadership feels like they're fighting for their lives. Because they are.
I'm just catching up on the news but it seems to me Iran knows they can't really meaningfully hit Israel. So they're going to try dragging Gulf countries into the war. They're close, easy to hit and full of rich people who are influential with the US. And have no serious military capacity (except maybe Saudis).
Whether it works we'll find out in a few days I think.
What about cells causing issues randomly here?
Where is here? Are you taking about terrorist cells?
It's bound to cause some destabilization in the region. Israel is all too happy that Daddy America help attack a long time rival and the Saudis are celebrating that their ~~planet-destroying endeavors~~ oil interests are protected. People will say that Iranians are celebrating his death. The ayatollah was a brutal religious tyrant but that doesn't change the fact the US and Israel didn't do this to save the Iranian people; they did this for their own geopolitical endgames.
I cannot say much but a family member who deploys to US military bases for a living had their deployment relocated from Kuwait to Jordan a few weeks ago. The expectation being regional hazard for the entirety of the deployment (10 months).
I doubt it. "Back to business" in Iran means back to what? Old regime with new Ayotollah? They have replacements lined up. Israel and USA probably have attacks lined up as well.
Without new leadership on the other hand, I doubt the IRGC will just drop their weapons in a matter of days.
I'd start preparing for a few scenarios: home, Switzerland, elsewhere. Do you know whether the embassy can be of any help?
Predictions are hard especially about the future. We also don't have access to intelligence organisations and the reasoning behind all this.
My guess: Trump hopes that the protests resume and they overthrow the regime and whatever replaces them is less hostile to the US. If that does not happen he is okay with just crippling the oil infrastructure for a few years to come in order to limit Chinas access to cheap oil.
So if there are no signs of protests or uprising soon they will probably just call it a "victory" and go home like with the Houti. Trump has shown no interest in sustaining long military campaigns.
If there is an uprising he will probably continue for longer until supreme court says he can't, because Congress will definitely be taking it to court but that takes time.
Predictions are hard especially about the future.
Wise words. ;-)
Also living in the ME, so I have some personal interest. After what I've heard and looked at, I personally put the risk of escalating regionally at extremely low right now.
No, there is very little for Iran to gain by trying to make the conflict bigger, they do not have the resources for any troop movements abroad. Some terrorist action on US soil would most likely increase the likelyhood of US boots on the ground, which would not help the regime stay in power. Whereas the proxies in Israel are currently too weak to do anything of value, sure they can probably murder someone of no importance, but not do anything that will help them win or restore peace.
While for the USA/Israel to make it bigger the US congress would need to declare war formally. Currently, there is a thin veneer of plausible deniability that protects Trump, anyone who is not in his propaganda bubble knows this is a declaration of war without really saying it. As all he did was bomb some country with many muslims, which sadly is just modus operandi for the US presidents
not sure how it works in Switzerland, but you should probably file for temporary asylum until the region deescalates.
We’re Swiss citizens.
It might be difficult but if I were you, I would stay in security in Switzerland. But I understand that it may be impossible for you financially or otherwise. I hope this situation will not escalate and that you and your family will find a solution. Good luck out there, my heart goes to you.
well never mind then 😂