Sedan

Hi, Comrade!

I haven't written in a long time—I've been struggling with depression.

The news is more positive this time. You know that I mostly rely on intuition when picking up on shifts in online sentiment.

I think Russia will weather the gasoline shortages. There has been a significant breakthrough—significant given the realities of modern warfare—by the AFU near Vovchansk. Here in the city, gas stations are getting hit every day. The mayor appeared on TV yesterday—I hadn't seen him in ages—complaining about it. But so far, we haven't had any gasoline shortages.

Oh just can’t continue down the thread, might have to start a new one. I basically can’t reply below this reply anymore. :)

Comrade, can we post our conversations in the section you created?

https://lemmy.ml/post/47650869

Is that section open to everyone? I’d like it to be—I want to meet interesting new people here.

we reached max comment depth for the thread :)

What should we do now?

Do we need to go to the section you created for me and our Chinese colleague?

I don’t think these strikes undermine Russia’s internal stability in any meaningful way.

From what I can see right now, Russia is holding up for the time being. But don't forget, winter is coming; it’s going to be cold for both Ukraine and Russia—or at least parts of Russia. It’s a good thing winters in Crimea aren't that cold.

One thing is certain: we’re going to be totally screwed this winter. I was planning to throw out some old furniture, but now I won't—it’ll serve as firewood for the winter.

I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting.

Look, Сomrade, get this straight: you’re essentially listening to someone on the level of Medvedev—not even Peskov, who at least knows how to choose his words carefully.

This is an advisor to Putin.

Desire alone isn't enough; you need political will—something Russia is, to put it mildly, rather short on. There are so many internal contradictions within the country.

"I think we are all concerned about the same thing. I don't think there is a single person in this country whose primary concern is anything other than the speedy cessation of hostilities; that goes without saying."

— Sberbank CEO Herman Gref, July 1 (yesterday).

Ending the war and achieving victory are two different things. And you realize this isn't just some blogger panicking—it's the head of the state-owned bank.

Besides, China would 100% not support a nuclear strike.

Right now, that could only happen in the event of aggression from Ukraine; that is precisely why Lukashenko went to "pay his respects" to Xi.

They were coordinating potential scenarios. Lukashenko told Xi: "If Ukraine makes a move, I’ll hit them with nukes—Vova is fine with it." Xi tacitly agreed. We can see this in how Lukashenko has suddenly grown bolder.

The Anglo-Saxons took a look at that... thought it over... and decided it was best not to go there!

And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don’t see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.

This is a major problem for Russia right now. They don't even know what to do themselves.

If Russia were absolutely confident in itself, it wouldn't have spent a year parroting the "Spirit of Anchorage" line; it would have simply taken action—silently!

People in Russia are already laughing at this "Spirit of Anchorage" notion—even the panic-mongering bloggers! They are demanding political will from the state to at least take out the bridges across the Dnieper—before things escalate to a nuclear strike, как до Киева раком!

They’re just bridges. Instead of destroying them completely, you could just punch holes in them—patching the holes takes only a week, so the bridges aren't totally wrecked. That’s what one of the panic-stricken bloggers suggested to Belousov.

If you tell me Putin knows what he’s doing, I’ll reply: the escalation has already reached the nuclear level. You could argue that that’s exactly what Putin knows! Yet a couple of years ago, this could have been resolved with the snap of a finger! You remember the time when the West was afraid to supply heavy weaponry, right? That was the moment to act!!!

Also, think about this logically, if the AFU had serious fighting capacity left then they would be defending Sloviansk/Kramatorsk right now instead of doing raids in Zaporozhye.

Comrade, I’m not telling you that Russia is losing; I’m telling you that—thanks in part to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive—Trump has regained faith in Europe. Consequently, the war is dragging on, which implies fatigue for both Ukraine and Russia.

If Ukraine realizes it is unequivocally losing, there will be an immediate mobilization of everyone aged 18 and up; we will see that happen.

The three-month period I spoke about back in the spring has passed. Russia has adapted, more or less. A new wave of the Russian offensive is coming now.

Also, I observe that Russia’s massive strikes on Kyiv are becoming increasingly damaging, whereas Russia is beginning to adapt to deep-strike attacks. Ukraine recently launched 800 drones, yet the effect was practically nil.

I’ve found Russian military bloggers are drama queens of the highest order. They’re really not a useful gauge for what’s actually happening.

So is that why they run to Belousov in a panic to complain? )))) Belousov hands out heart medication to them. )))

Comrade, if it weren't for those "panic-mongers," we likely wouldn't have such a detailed picture of the situation, because, according to pro-Kremlin media, everything is always fine.

That is precisely why Belousov summons bloggers—to get information from the ground, rather than from the reports of bloated generals who love sending "flag-bearers" just to snap a photo of a flag. The Russian General Staff then presents this disinformation as fact. Thanks to one of those "panicking" bloggers, several generals—the type who love planting flags—have already been relieved of their commands.

Remember when the Russians captured Kupyansk a couple of years ago? That general was dismissed, too.

Still, I understand why you call Russian bloggers panic-mongers. It started back during the Kursk operation, when bloggers caused public panic—but if you look closer, they were telling the truth back then. The Ukrainians caught the Russians off guard; that’s a fact.

Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale.

Yes, but as you realize, strikes deep inside Russia are dangerous primarily due to their impact on the media narrative, which undermines Russia's internal stability.

Did you see that a new Prigozhin has appeared recently? Peskov has already spoken about him. He is threatening Putin, just like Prigozhin did. This means the Russian elites have now gotten involved—exactly what we discussed earlier.

However, it seems to me that the situation inside Russia remains stable for now. Everything is still under control.

And that’s what’s happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.

Drones are buzzing constantly; yesterday they bombed a gas station where I used to fill up often. That’s what I heard.

For now, though, there are no shortages or panic buying of gasoline in the city. But the situation is worsening; Russia has changed its attack tactics. There have been up to two hundred drones a day—no more than that—for the past two weeks.

And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.

No, Comrade, I’m arguing from the opposite perspective—or rather, trying to strike a middle ground.

After all, the propaganda claims Russia is losing; I’ve never said that. Russia won’t lose, but it might not win.

It wouldn't have won anyway if the Anchorage agreements had been implemented! And those agreements looked nothing like a victory! They looked more like a disgrace.

That’s the premise I’m working from, not the propaganda.

In essence, I’m saying the same thing Putin is saying,

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6a411d079a79474cc1ecfd21

...except that, unlike Putin, I don’t have that rock-solid confidence that things will end well for me. Do you understand? For me! I couldn't care less if they celebrate an imaginary victory back in Russia—not if I’m still stuck in this "prison"!

By my count, this is already the fourth "difficult phase." They somehow overcame the first three—the "gesture of goodwill" near Kyiv, the retreat from Kherson, Prigozhin’s mutiny... and now, the strikes on oil refineries and Moscow.

Each of these "difficult phases" narrowed the scope of the Special Military Operation; eventually, it all shrank down to the size of the Donbas...

It’s as if time has dragged us back to square one.

I don’t think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there’s nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there’s no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.

The situation is a bit different now. Ukrainians have advanced and dug in at two locations; they’ve been building up their forces there for several weeks. The Russians can't dislodge them...

Wow... that was loud—those are guided aerial bombs; they fly in pairs. I'll find out later what exactly it was.

Anyway, back to the point.

Right now—let me repeat—right now, neither side has an overwhelming advantage!

I do think we’ll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we’re coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he’s the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn’t been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don’t have any new tricks to play here.

Also, how do I turn off this fucking Starlink!

And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.

At the moment, I don't see any signs pointing to that—though, of course, I could be wrong.

A strike would have to begin with a demonstrative nuclear test in an uninhabited area, followed by a broadcast to the entire world as a warning. Only then would the actual strike follow. Putin won't even commit to a demonstration. China might not like the idea.

I’m expecting Sloviansk/Kramatorsk will get taken this summer

))) No, Comrade, that’s unlikely.

Ukraine has massed forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector and intends to launch a counterattack. The Russians are currently trying to disrupt this counteroffensive.

Ukraine definitely still has potential.

and why there’s such a major panic now

I monitor the mood among Russian pro-military bloggers. There was some confusion when Ukraine began actively striking deep into Russian territory, though the panic seems to have subsided somewhat now.

Belousov recently met with these bloggers in person; the key issue on the agenda was countering UAVs.

We can see that a feedback loop exists within the Russian Federation.

Lately, strikes deep inside Russia have become less effective, and it is evident that countermeasures are being implemented; Russia is successfully countering these new threats.

As for Ukraine, there is no panic there so far—except, perhaps, among those being sent on "meat-grinder" assaults. But no one asks for their opinion.

And nobody cared before because people were getting grabbed from eastern Ukraine, now the kidnappings are starting to happen in western Ukraine more and more. I think it’s also an indication of how desperate the situation is. See how Europeans are now trying to send people back too. There are real manpower problems nobody wants to talk about.

Yes, I agree with you, but this isn't aimed at the immediate present—it's looking toward the future. Once this becomes widespread, then we can talk about a catastrophic shortage of mobilization resources within Ukraine. For now, these are just plans.

As for the current situation: recently, the EU banned granting refugee status to newly arrived Ukrainians of conscription age. Right now, the goal is to round up everyone inside Ukraine; they’ll go after the refugees later. I think there are enough people here to last another year...

Unfortunately, my outlook on this isn't quite as rosy as yours, Comrade...)))

By the way, another good summary https://youtu.be/9EpDoB-xgOE

Yes, his description is roughly accurate.

This breakthrough occurred because Ukraine is mounting counterattacks in other sectors of the front; it is not currently in a state of purely static defense.

And Sloviansk is a symbolic city for both Russia and Ukraine. The "Russian Spring" of 2014 began there. The battle for it will be fierce. If you like, you can call Sloviansk "Stalingrad"—and you wouldn't be wrong! It strikes me as the key battle of this war.

I’m going to repeat this again, we have concrete and irrefutable proof that China is no longer dependent on the west.

With the exception of the $600 billion trade volume—where, yes, China sells more to the U.S. than it buys—and high-tech developments that China has not yet created itself but which are possessed by the U.S. (or Taiwan, which utilizes U.S. technology)...

Outside Crimea, the shortages seem to be more a result of panic

Yes, due to panic, among other things.

that export volumes haven’t been affected.

Comrade, you can't fuel a car with crude oil...)))

Once again:

https://korrespondent.net/world/russia/4888980-rossyia-prosyt-benzyn-u-druzhestvennykh-stran

Even though they can force people to fight by dehumanizing them, this is not an effective tactic. Notice how Russian advance is accelerating now, and big towns towns like Konstantinovka that used to be fought over really hard are now falling mostly intact. There are no more fights to take very building like what we saw in Artemovsk.

You got a bit carried away regarding the "major cities," Comrade. )))) I only heard of that particular city at the start of the war... )))) When you're driving along the highway, you're hardly going to remember the names of every village you pass. In the USSR, that kind of place was classified as an "urban-type settlement." To a resident of Kharkiv, it’s just a backwater village. I know Sloviansk well—I used to visit often; there was a really good "cook" there... you know, Breaking Bad style... )))) People would travel all the way from Kharkiv just to get his "product." It’s a real hick town, too—they speak Surzhyk there.

The major cities—or rather, not "major," just cities—that Russia has captured are Berdyansk, Mariupol, and Kherson.

As for Sloviansk, they’ve turned it into a fortress city. I doubt the Russians will be able to capture it quickly. It’s the next city on the list after Mariupol.

It is absolutely sick what western backed fascists are doing to the people of Ukraine and how people in the west keep cheering for it.

Look, this is Ukrainian TV. Things got to the point where they had to announce this to the whole country.

This woman, the Ukrainian ombudsperson who visited "Skelya," shares her "impressions."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mrkC8kV0Bc&t=275s

And take a look at the comments below—it’s all those "pot-heads" finally seeing the light; all the comments are in Ukrainian!!! Morons—what were they thinking before?

The NABU, of course, "got involved" in the "investigation."

https://ukranews.com/en/amp/news/1159661-lubinets-launches-urgent-investigation-into-skelia-regiment-following-allegations-of-torture

And I think there likely will be a mutiny in the army sooner or later as well. We talked about this a long time go, but the dynamic is that they have to use actual trained and motivated soldiers to do important operations, and each time that happens the ones that are lost can’t be replaced. Russians know this and that’s why towns like Pokrovsk are always used as nazi roach motels. Ukraine has no choice but to defend them to the last because it looks bad to western sponsors when they lose them. So, they can’t just throw mobics there. And that depletes the core of motivated fascists holding the army together. Eventually there will be an inflection point where there just aren’t enough of them and the mobics will start taking revenge for all the abuse they suffered.

For now, this is only in theory.

Also, when they flee to the west that’s when things are going to get really bad for Europe. They’ve already been smuggling a lot of weapons into Europe and establishing links with fascists there. Once you have a whole bunch of hardened, trained, and well armed fash running around, Europe might start looking a lot like Syria at that point.

Yes, I completely agree with you; it will be a mafia, armed to the teeth, terrorizing all of Europe. The consequences of the war will continue to haunt Europe for a long time to come.

Seems like what Russia is going to do is take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk

It would be a major success for Russia if it could capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the end of the year.

But that is not the whole of Donbas.

For the most part, everything depends on how Russia handles strikes deep within its own territory.

Last night, Ukraine launched an attack involving more than 600 drones.

Russia is currently trying to push drone launch sites back beyond the Dnieper River. They are destroying gas stations and truck stops where drone launchers might potentially be located; on this side of the Dnieper, the Russians have already destroyed 160 gas stations. So far, there are no fuel shortages in our city.

In Russia—even as far away as Siberia—there are massive, miles-long lines for gasoline.

As I said back in the spring, Russia needs a decisive push to turn the tide. Right now, things aren't going very well for Russia in that regard.

Russia is also currently losing the information war.

Basically, Russia is winning and right now situation is under control.

Not quite, Comrade. Right now, the situation at the front is mixed. The AFU is still conducting successful counter-offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Russia has lost the territory it had previously captured there.

Russia is seeing successes in other sectors as well, though the pace is not as dynamic. In some areas, the situation has been at a standstill for months.

You surely realize, Comrade, that Russia’s very slow rate of advance—combined with the fact that Ukraine can strike Moscow—is precisely what convinced Trump to drastically change his opinion.

No matter how weak the US might be, Russia is going to face a very difficult time in the coming months.

One more brief note: Ukraine struck deep inside Russia with Storm Shadow missiles for the first time—this set a precedent.

oh and here’s how relations between China and the west are actually like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVOS6RVr6H0

At the beginning of the video, the situation in the US is similar to the current situation in Russia. There's also something going on with government bond rates and depositor confidence, only the numbers are different. All those forecasts can be projected onto Russia as well.

I also really liked that Ma was hit with US sanctions..)))

This can also be mirrored in Russia, where Russian oligarchs are hit with sanctions and are willing to do anything, even betrayal, to get the US to lift the sanctions. Oligarchs are saboteurs because their actions and intentions can run counter to state interests. Even if, as I've been told here, oligarchs in China have no influence over the state.

It's hard to imagine how much of his money Ma has taken out of China. He's essentially robbing the country.

Amazed it took them this long to finally start cutting supply lines from Europe.

No, I don't think it will be systemic.

For now, everyone is waiting to see what Russia will do. There's a strange silence.

I have no doubt that China is developing very quickly.

But at the moment, China is unlikely to survive the severing of economic relations with the US and its satellites.

By the way, it's time to talk about India. India will now supply gasoline to Russia. It will supply diesel to Ukraine, and gasoline to Russia.

In Crimea, there is no gasoline at all at civilian gas stations, and in some regions of Russia, there is a gasoline shortage. Gasoline prices have increased by half. Speculators have doubled theirs.

The Russian stock market has noticeably fallen. The situation is not critical right now, but a lot depends on how quickly Russia finds a way to counter.

Now everyone is expecting a Russian retaliatory strike. There has been no response yet since the attack on Moscow. Lately, the strikes against us have been very weak every night. The siren rarely sounds. It's very strange.

Remember I told you about the "Skelya" unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Yesterday, Ukrainian media reported cases of flagrant inhumane treatment of soldiers there by the leadership. Torture, sexual violence, murder, suicide. These people haven't even reached the front yet. Criminals released from prison are committing this lawlessness.

A friend of mine ended up there, and he told me the same thing. This is how they force the "busified" soldiers to fight. Because people reduced to the state of animals are willing to do anything to escape their suffering, even die during an assault. We were talking recently about how the "busified" soldiers hold the front and even counterattack. That's it!!! These are no longer people, but animals reduced to the state of animals. These people are impossible to break because they have no other choice. They believe their chances of surviving an assault are better.

And Syrsky is personally orchestrating this entire hellish spectacle.

And this entire "banquet" is being paid for by the collective West.

We, ordinary Ukrainians, are held captive by the devil!

When I think about it, I feel sick!

I'm certain that if the regime in Ukraine doesn't change, a civil war will break out very soon after the war.

And this won't even be a war between the west and the east of Ukraine, but a war between those who return from the war and those who bullied and abused them in training, and then threw them into brutal assaults.

And these won't be frightened citizens hiding in their homes; these will be battle-hardened thugs with weapons.

And if the regime changes, all this scum will immediately flee to the west with the stolen money. But then the country will be cleansed of this scum naturally.

China is actually quite independent from the US, and we have recent conclusive proof of that when Trump tried doing a trade war. Turns out, exports to the US are a tiny part of Chinese economy now. And I don’t know why you think China needs microchips from Taiwan when they have chip production entirely on the mainland. I think you need to spend a bit of time to actually research this subject because you’re very much misinformed here. https://www.huawei.com/en/news/2026/5/ieee-iscas-tau-scaling

Comrade, this symposium was held in May, and the topic discussed was "A New Path for the Development of the Semiconductor Industry in Practice."

The key phrase was "New Path."

This is from open sources:

"Taiwan produces significantly better and more technologically advanced chips than mainland China. The island is home to TSMC, which controls over 90% of the global market for the most advanced and commercially successful chips. China is rapidly closing the gap and dominating other segments, but Taiwan still retains technological leadership. What is the difference between chip production in Taiwan and China? Technological level: Taiwan mass-produces the most advanced processors using process technologies of 3 nanometers (nm) and below for Apple, Nvidia, and AMD. China (represented by SMIC) has struggled to master 7-nm and 5-nm processes, which are more expensive to produce and have a much higher defect rate. Access to equipment: Taiwan has free access to unique ultra-hard ultraviolet (EUV) lithography scanners from the Dutch company ASML. Sales of such machines to China are completely blocked due to US sanctions, which is hindering its development. Development. Advanced chip production: Taiwan holds an absolute monopoly on processors for artificial intelligence, data centers, and flagship smartphones."

China does not yet have the technology to overtake Taiwan.

https://mskgazeta.ru/obshchestvo/kak-vozmozhnoe-protivostoyanie-knr-i-tajvanya-povliyaet-na-razvitie-ii-16020.html

by the way https://xcancel.com/upholdreality/status/2067629274765394368

Yes, but Margarita Simonyan is Solovyov, only in a skirt. As they say in the West, she's a mouthpiece for the Kremlin...))) They won't say anything bad about China on official Russian channels close to the Kremlin, I can tell you for sure – it's taboo! They say the same things about China there that they say here.

They're all raving about China these days.

Read it here

https://alfabank.ru/alfa-investor/posts/t/e04dd1d4-f454-f111-91c6-0050569e1fd0/

I don’t think anybody takes what Trump says seriously at this point. He’ll say one thing than another, it literally changes day to day. What matters is that the US is exhausted now. They just lost a major war against Iran, their weapons stocks are depleted, and China has them by the balls. So, Trump is doing a bit of posturing right now, but it’s not going to translate into anything material because the coffers are empty.

As we expected, Bibi won't allow the war to end, as that would mean the end of his career. Negotiations have broken down.

And I can’t see Russia taking out the bridges because it’s almost certain they plan to use them. The goal of the Europeans is to provoke a big reaction right now so they can rally their public. The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they’re trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

They started destroying bridges across the Dnieper in the south. Where supplies come from Romania.

They turned on our hot water. Just so you understand, before the war, we never had hot water in the summer. The last time we had hot water in the summer was under the USSR. I still don't understand how they do it. By the way, they bombed Thermal Power Plant 5 again yesterday, and the lights were flickering.

The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they’re trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

Yes, there's a massive propaganda campaign on TV, along with strikes deep into Russia. Yes, it's putting pressure on ordinary people in Russia. This will continue for several more months.

By the way, let's get back to our long-suffering sheep.

A Chinese proposal for interceptor drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has leaked online. These aren't even dual-use items anymore. And you're saying someone's going to run out of something...)))) If it all goes wrong, the Chinese will help...)))))

This infuriates me so much, Comrade!

China is so mired in this capitalist shambles, where profit is king, that it's disgusting to watch.

And China won't sever relations with the US, just as the US won't sever relations with China. Too much is tied to it, involving enormous mutual risks.

The US is imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. No, China isn't offended by stopping supplying these goods; China is circumventing the sanctions by reselling the goods to the US through Mexico.

Artemov explains everything correctly, and reading his book really helped me see how American propaganda machine works a lot more clearly. The direct inspiration from the nazis and the evolution of the narrative was very interesting to read about as well.

This vile lie was exposed back in the USSR. Then the USSR collapsed, and we were forced to believe this nonsense again!!!