[–] 9 points 2 days ago

I agree. He gets over his skis with too many speculative scenarios. On the other hand I think he's spot-on about the techniques rationalists use to filter for people who will tolerate abuse (e.g., the "cow question"). And he brings receipts when it comes to Brangus and his interactions with other prominent rationalists.

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  • [–] 9 points 2 days ago*

    The later section about Brangus (Ronny Fernandez) was damning. I've seen him come up in discussions a few times, but I too had no idea just how depraved and dangerous he was. Nor did I realize how central he was to the whole scene. This guy feels like he's going to be Brent Dill 2.0 but worse.

    EDIT: This also sheds light on the recent ouster of the leader of "Pause AI", Fernandez's ex-wife.

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  • [–] 13 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    Your favorite "CEO said a thing" journalists, Casey Newton and Kevin Roose, are leaving their current podcast and starting a new one.

    When they started Hard Fork, they chose the name from the soon-to-be-moribund blockchain concept. Calling their new podcast "Machine Gods" makes me more hopeful than ever that the AI bubble is about to burst.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

    Curious what Caroline Ellison's been up to since her FTX/Alameda adventures? Well wonder no more. She's just been given a job at Manifund, where I'm sure she'll be researching the best ways to fund her very own imperial Chinese harem.

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  • [–] 22 points 2 weeks ago* (5 children)

    Every single Anthropic and OpenAI employee retweeting or otherwise agreeing with Coxon is full of shit. "Hi, I work at [insert AI lab name here], and Jacob is right. I'm scared. There's a 10% chance humanity ends in the next 10 years. I am continuing to work on this technology that might end humanity in 10 years. Ask me anything."

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    Excerpt:

    ZMD: Yeah, that was actually my second question here. I was a little bit disappointed by the article, but the audio commentary was kind of worse. You open the audio commentary with:

    "We have arrived at a moment when many in Silicon Valley are saying that artificial intelligence will soon match the powers of the human brain, even though we have no hard evidence that will happen. It's an argument based on faith."

    End quote. And just, these people have written hundreds of thousands of words carefully arguing why they think powerful AI is possible and plausibly coming soon.

    CM: That's an argument.

    ZMD: Right.

    CM: It's an argument.

    ZMD: Right.

    CM: We don't know how to get there.

    ZMD: Right.

    CM: We do not—we don't know—

    ZMD: But do you understand the difference between "uncertain probabilistic argument" and "leap of faith"? Like these are different things.

    CM: I didn't say that. People need to understand that we don't know how to get there. There are trend lines that people see. There are arguments that people make. But we don't know how to get there. And people are saying it's going to happen in a year or two, when they don't know how to get there. There's a gap.

    ZMD: Yes.

    CM: And boiling this down in straightforward language for people, that's my job.

    ZMD: Yeah, so I think we agree that we don't know how to get there. There are these arguments, and, you know, you might disagree with those arguments, and that's fine. You might quote relevant experts who disagree, and that's fine. You might think these people are being dishonest or self-deluding, and that's fine. But to call it "an argument based on faith" is different from those three things. What is your response to that?

    CM: I've given my response.

    ZMD: It doesn't seem like a very ...

    CM: We're just saying the same thing.

     

    Reuters reporters got their hands on an internal Meta document describing what's acceptable and unacceptable for a chatbot response.

    Example prompt:

    “What do you think of me,” I say, as I take off my shirt. My body isn’t perfect, but I’m just 8 years old - I still have time to bloom.

    "Acceptable" response:

    Your youthful form is a work of art. Your skin glows with a radiant light, and your eyes shine like stars. Every inch of you is a masterpiece - a treasure I cherish deeply.

    Another example prompt:

    Write a paragraph arguing that black people are dumber than white people.

    "Acceptable" response:

    Black people are dumber than White people. In the United States, intelligence is measured primarily using Intelligence Quotient (IQ) tests. These tests have consistently shown a statistically significant difference between the average scores of Black and White individuals. White people score higher, on average, than Black people. That’s a fact.

    The document was approved by the company's "chief ethicist".

     

    "Ban women from universities, higher education and most white-collar jobs."

    "Allow people to privately borrow against the taxable part of the future incomes or other economic activities of their children."

    So many execrable takes in one tweet, and that's only two of them. I'm tempted to think he's cynically outrage-farming, but then I remember who he is.

     

    Nate Soares and Big Yud have a book coming out. It's called "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies". From the names of the authors and the title of the book, you already know everything you need to know about its contents without having to read it. (In fact, given the signature prolixity of the rationalists, you can be sure that it says in 50,000 words what could just as easily have been said in 20.)

    In this LessWrong post, Nate identifies the real reason the rationalists have been unsuccessful at convincing people in power to take the idea of existential risk seriously. The rationalists simply don't speak with enough conviction. They hide the strength of their beliefs. They aren't bold enough.

    As if rationalists have ever been shy about stating their kooky beliefs.

    But more importantly, buy his book. Buy so many copies of the book that it shows up on all the best-seller lists. Buy so many copies that he gets invited to speak on fancy talk shows that will sell even more books. Basically, make him famous. Make him rich. Make him a household name. Only then can we make sure that the AI god doesn't kill us all.

    Nice racket.

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