Editing to let people know that I will be blocking anyone who feels the need to tell me why this graph is inaccurate. I truly don't care, but feel free to chime in with your useless take and land a spot on my block list! 🙂
this post was submitted on 15 Jan 2025
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Lemmy had the same jump in numbers during the Reddit Exodus. Mastodon had a huge boost when Elon bought Twitter.
Every spike has been a followed by a slide back to baseline in less than a couple of months. After you've seen it happen so many times, it is no longer interesting.
The fact that you believe these platforms were the same before and after these events makes it sound like you were not, in fact, there to see it happen. In my experience, it permanently changed both platforms, transforming them from weird niche sites to genuine alternatives.
That said, what you find interesting or not is not any of my business.
I am here since before the Reddit backout and I am on Mastodon since 2018. Lemmy was at 15k MAU, went up to over 125k and now is 1/3 of that. Mastodon had ~~1M~~ 575k something before Elon, hit up close to ~~2M~~ 1.5M and now is sitting around 800k. (edit: I was looking at the overall charts and used wrong figures. Corrected now.)
Sure, if your reference point is waaaay before the spikes then what we have now seem "a lot". However, my point is that these spikes are far from being indicative of mass adoption.
So it increased by 200%
Oh, wow, very impressive! Did you have to use a calculator to get to this challenging result?
Communick's revenue grew 1800% in 2024, compared to 2023. Do you think that makes it successful in any way?
Successful or not, it isn't back to baseline
Again: "back to baseline" is not meant in absolute numbers, but trend-wise.
It's not "again" for anything you've written in this comment thread.
And you specifically suggested that these numbers can't be extrapolated, i.e. that they are not a trend. If it's indeed a trend for Lemmy to have 200% yoy growth then yeah, I'd think that'd be pretty successful.
Try the sibling: https://communick.news/comment/4203442
You got it exactly backwards. There is a decline trend (monthly users go down month after after a spike) while the "200% growth" is not determined by any curve and can not be measured by any specific interval, because it was driven by one stochastic event that brought 100k people out of a sudden (the Reddit migration)
To go back to my original comment: let's see how the numbers are going to be in the next month. If the first derivative is still positive, then we can talk about "trends", until then we are just senseless cheering and extrapolating out of one data point.
The expression "back to baseline" comes from Science and Engineering and literally means that something has gone back to the previous ~~average~~ flat level (for example: "the power line noise level spiked when your turned the machine on but is now back to baseline")
Edit: not average, but actually specifically the original flat level below which things would not fall. Sorry, it's kinda hard to explain in words but very easy to point out in a graph or a scope were it's just this flat line to which things always return.
That expression makes sense if you're talking about the rate of growth itself (i.e. the Lemmy rate of growth spiked at the time of the Reddit changes and eventually went back to baseline, since Lemmy is not growing any faster now than before the Reddit changes) but it doesn't make sense if you're talking about user numbers since the number of Lemmy users grew a lot with the Reddit changes and never went back to the average before them, not even close.
Your original post is not clear on which of those things you're talking about when you wrote "back to baseline" and your subsequent posts are mainly talking about user numbers, giving the idea that that's what your "back to baseline" is refering to, in which case you're using that expression incorrectly.