this post was submitted on 10 Mar 2026
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Does Iran actually have the capability to close the Strait though? I thought every naval asset they have has been flattened.
It’s already closed. The threat and the resulting insurance pull is all that’s needed. https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance
Greece got through https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/greek-operated-tanker-with-saudi-oil-cargo-sails-through-hormuz-ship-tracking-2026-03-09/
Greek sailors are nutters
The Greeks and the Persians go way back.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/greek-operated-tanker-with-saudi-oil-cargo-sails-through-hormuz-ship-tracking-2026-03-09/
Someone called their bluff.
Iran can close the straight with like 2 dudes with RPGs.
I'm picturing two Iranian guys, sitting in beach chairs next to the straight, sipping coctails, next to a crate marked "RPG".
JustCause 3 loading screen vibes
Exactly the mental picture I had too.
Plot twist, the crate is full of Monster Manuals and Dungeon Keepers Guides, and the guys were just hoping to have a fun afternoon.
Playing RPGs on their Steam Decks
I had the same thought only with a truck full of drones behind them.
They'd be houthis from yemen (inshallah), not Iranians, but close enough
Trade ships will redirect at even the threat of being met with any confrontation. It is not worth the risk. Iran doesn't need a Navy to do this either. They need a couple dudes with AKs in a speedboat.
For more info. Just look at Yemen's blockade as an example.
Ships aren't gonna risk massive payloads. Insurance won't cover the loss either.
Don't even need to get near the ocean, they can just sit inland and launch drones and rockets at passing ships like the Houthis did.
Yep. Which is why I'm really confused by the reports of them "mining" it today. I'm really wondering if it's just a fake "win" the US is trying to manufacture.
Maybe they are trying to do it. But it doesn't make sense at all with their messages of allowing passage to states that boot US and Israeli ambassadors. Even if the mines can be deactivated it still doesn't make sense strategically for Iran to do that.
Was watching the reporting live with CBS saying that Iran was placing mines. Then Trump gets on and says we stopped them from doing it. Just doesn't add up at all.
Yeah. Every major news outlet is complicit. Charlie's Broadcast Station is full Nazi now. I have have cut off all mainstream media for my sanity because it certainly isn't making more informed.
As for the mine claims, I think it's that Iran knows how our chickenshit post-industrialized vibe economy works. Just claiming they've mined the strait is causing the market to shit it's pants regardless of it it's true or not.
Interesting take on the mines I haven't thought about. Would make sense.
I agree. I do still try to follow how the mainstream media is trying to build its narrative. Though I would definitely be mentally healthy without it.
Considering it has signficantly affected oil prices. Yes.
A large amount of ships are currently stuck in the persian gulf. A significant portion of this is because they do not want to take the risk. The threat is enough to be effective but Iran is also enforcing it.
Oil tankers tend to be a pretty risk-averse group. They're not going to risk getting hit and having their multi-million dollar cargo go up in flames, even if the risk of getting hit while transiting the strait is relatively low.
The Straits are 20 miles at the narrowest. they can hit ships with artillery. Plus they also have drones, which they've been using to hit over ten oil tankers since the illegal war began
I've been wondering the same thing.
It's a baller thing to say. But if they've lost air superiority (or even if it's compromised) then it doesn't mean much.
I read somewhere that Iran can close the strait without a full-scale naval engagement using selective drone strikes and harassing vessels, Iran triggers a spike in maritime insurance premiums which will choke shipping companies. Also because of the narrow width of the strait, also shallow, Iran can use mines, they have both simple contact mines to sophisticated "smart" mines, apparently they possesses one of the largest naval mine inventories in the world.
Those are fair points. They don't need to block all targeted traffic. They just have to be enough of a threat/pain in the ass for transportation and insurance rates to go up to an uncomfortable level. It's all about threat and perception.
Sure, the US air force and navy could bomb the shit out of their artillery placements. But given how (relatively) cheap and effective drones are, that might not be as effective as it seems at first.
How shallow? If a ship gets sunk would that be another obstacle?
They're a petrostate with a hopelessly outdated air force, the US or any other developed country can destroy their infrastructure at their leisure and bring their economy to it's knees. Which they would happily do if Iran sinks a vessel flagged in their waters.
They also need a working vessel to lay those mines.
You realize that threats like this don't work AFTER you already did it, right?
There will be something they haven't hit yet.
Sure, and they are going to bomb it regardless, you see the problem with killing the people you were negotiating with? The next guy isn't going to come to the table.
Think Americans are going to give up all their comforts and wealth just to bump off Iran?
Also just to add to your point. Even if Trump and Co try to force away those conforts how long till you start getting little IRA style sessesionist groups? The US powergrid alone is a rather vast vulnerability.
Like their pre-schools. That'll show em how mighty our brave troops and weapons are.
Israel is involved here so that’s not a joke.
lol a country and people that has existed in that region for thousands of years hosting multiple land empires, survived multiple genocidal Mongol hordes....is a petrostate that will crumble if you just bomb some stuff.
Fucking Americunt MAGA brainrot.
The Iranian nation as we know it only came into existence with the fall of the Shah.
The land will always be there, the regime, not so much.
And what do you suppose happens to all those civilians whose economy is now in shambles? Assuming they aren't killed in the missile strikes, that is.
Lmao, what fucking reality do you live in. The war is already going on, they've been attacking iran for like 2 weeks now. What is this "the USA can DESTROY them if they DARE target our ships" shit? Strait's closed. try and open it, bitch
Losing Air superiority doesn't mean their artillery stops working.
It's not really baller if everyone just ignores them, and joins a US led convoy through the Strait.
Neat, the US taxpayers are going to spend billions of dollars to escort oil for the Arabs. All in order to reduce the value of America's own oil exports. How likely do you think that is?
Pretty likely. Iran will break before America.
Except you can't even define what that means. How does Iran "break"? They are literally just existing in their country. Where are they supposed to go? Closing the straight was a RESPONSE to American bombings of civilian targets. Are they supposed to just let the US bomb more civilian targets or else they will keep bombing civilian targets? How does that even make sense?
Conversely, the US is spending billions of dollars to do what, exactly? What are the American people getting back on this investment? Do you really think that Americans are going to tolerate increased costs of every product they purchase forever just to achieve the ....... that is the goal of this whole enterprise?
All you have to do is scare the money people.
They don’t need naval assets all they need to do is give the green light to Russian proxies who will lay mines and knock it out of action for years.