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[–] 8 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

You know how some physics experiments are difficult because of shit like particles having indeterminacy, behaving differently when observed and interference from other particles making them interact in unpredictable ways? Well, people are even worse.

That said, geopolitics is a giant live experiment, you need only pay attention and analyse. If you come up with a good enough model of undertanding, you can predict what is the likely the best course of action before taking them.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    It's a live experiment. We're always going to be doing something and we will at least have data for that. Like Portugal's decriminalization of drugs has shown to be far more effective than the US war on drugs in decreasing drug use.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

    Exactly. But knowing what worked for Portugal is just one clue. It's also important to have an understanding of why it worked, identifying other factors that could have contributed, ways the policy can be improved, how effective it would be if implemented in vastly different countries ways to adapt policies to those countries, and even expand the concept beyond drugs.

    Imagine a country is going through terrible times and decides to implement some radical austerity measures, sell public companies, defund public services, do all the stuff the IMF loves. Or maybe the opposite, the country nationalizes everything and expels all foreign companies. Let's say a decade or two later the country starts really prospering. It would be unwise to assume this is just universal without proper understanding the mechanics of what happened.

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