I would argue that a direct war with Russia or China is actually less likely now after they failed against Iran. They're arrogant but they're not suicidal. They don't want to go after someone strong, they want an easy victory against someone weak, which is why they are looking at Venezuela.

I don't see how that works just from material perspective alone. Russia is singlehandedly outproducing all of NATO militarily. China has orders of magnitude bigger industry. We've also seen that the west is entirely dependent on critical inputs from China like rare earths without which all high tech manufacturing here stops, including military production. Finally, Both Russia and China are nuclear superpowers, so any direct conflict would be suicidal.