you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] 0 points 10 months ago (2 children)

With no other information on how likely each is, and assuming the likelihood of each prediction stays the same, you should never pull the lever. The expected number of people in the tunnel is 1.5.

If the probability of there being zero people in the tunnel gets above 66%, you should pull the lever every time (the expected number of people in the tunnel drops below 1).

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments