1247
"LLMs can do anything" except make positive cashflow. (europe.pub)
submitted 5 days ago by to c/funny@sh.itjust.works
135 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] 9 points 4 days ago (6 children)

Tech companies are expected to be run at a loss for quite some time before they start being profitable.

They were founded in 2015 and "officially" launched GPT in 2022 to the public. If they make profits by 2032, that would be in line with how other tech companies established themselves.

For example, Spotify wasn't profitable until 2024. They launched in 2008.

So, I don't know why them not being profitable is what everyone is talking about. They're not expected to be profitable until 2030 at the earliest. And every serious investor know this.

Yes I'm very fun at parties. But it seems that a lot of people just do not understand the expected timelines of tech companies.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 6 child comments
    •
  • [–] 19 points 4 days ago (3 children)

    Okay but the world had enough money to bankroll Spotify for 20 years. It doesn't have the kind of money OpenAI needs.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
    •
  • [–] 4 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    And Spotify was barely making a loss AND had a lot of revenue. They were just putting more capital into infrastructure, etc. instead of profits.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
  • [–] 1 point 3 days ago

    Excuse me? From 2017 to 2022. Spotify lost an average of ~430 million euro per year. And they weren't profitable from 2008 to 2016 either... -0.43 billion per year is not "barely making a loss". But investors saw potential and they kept funding.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    They have to at least have a plausible path to profitability. The serious investors have known for some time there isn't one with AI. Just because the AI companies will never be profitable long term doesn't mean there is no reason to invest in them short term. That's what a speculative bubble is. Everyone believes the line will keep going up long enough for them to turn around and sell to a greater fool in the near future. And for the most part they're right. The ultimate bag-holder ends up being the middle class worker and their auto-assigned 401k portfolio.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
  • [–] 1 point 2 days ago

    They have multiple plausible paths to profitability. To claims there's none is just stupid. If they succeed or not is another question. But it's absolutely plausible.

    The product and profitability towards the average citizen of the world, is such a microscopic part of their goals. People using their product is nothing more than data to feed their model. When they're done. Their profits are not going to come from people. It's going to come from the US government and companies. The investments being poured into OpenAI isn't just disappearing into a black hole, lots of it remains in the hardware and digital infrastructure required for the project.

    Even if their public worth drops to 0. They will still keep being funded. Because the research is too important to let go of.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent