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Senior Engineers Are the Next DRAM Shortage (blog.herlein.com)
submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by to c/experienced_devs@programming.dev
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ETA: summary…

Author describes how agentic coding tools have disincentivized the developer training and mentorship pipeline that the software industry has implicitly relied on to produce seasoned developers, predicting that once the shortage is fully realized it could take years to reverse.

The solution proposed is for managers and senior developers to get ahead of this shortage by foregoing the immediate yet shortlived productivity maximization offered by the agent-multiplied-senior structure in favor of longterm sustainability by deliberately facilitating experience fan-out to juniors.

The methodology proposed is based on a successful nuclear engineering apprenticeship program carried out on active service naval submarines.

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[–] 2 points 3 days ago (1 child)

Basically. Making employee retention a priority pays off. Getting new people spooled up is expensive. Team productivity dips while the newbie gets their bearings. Keeping the knowledge around.

Although, another problem would be people sticking around which would block Jrs from moving up.

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  • [–] 0 points 3 days ago

    New seniors are also newbies. I haven't seen a single senior who's been productive from day one. It always takes a few months to understand the systems organisation, get to know how people work, and so on. People expect 3 months to be enough, but it can take up until a year.

    Regarding people staying and not making space, I'm not sure where the problem is. If someone gains skills, they get a raise. If there isn't money, that means you can't keep them around anyway because there isn't enough work to pay them. If you're still growing you'll be able to pay them and their increased skillset.

    IMO there is no "space" issue. A team that starts out with 5 juniors and 5 seniors that grows into 10 seniors isn't an issue unless you can't pay for it. Am I missing something

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