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'Big Short' Investor Expects AI Bubble Burst 'Sooner Than Later' (gizmodo.com)
submitted 1 week ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[–] 109 points 1 week ago (10 children)

AI is obviously a bubble.

That said, Burry has also predicted 6 of the last 2 crashes.

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  • [–] 21 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    He got Tesla wrong. Very hard to underestimate meme stocks.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 week ago

    Does anyone expect a large business to not fail when theyve been as poorly run as Tesla?

    Also can we talk about how Musk seemingly is propping up all his companies with the values of his other investments? And that most of that money is government contracts?

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  • [–] 16 points 1 week ago (3 children)

    Calling a bubble is easy.

    Calling the top of the bubble or the bottom of the crash is the more or less impossible part.

    It could very well be a bubble, and come crashing down to a low point that is still higher than it is today.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    I agree in principle. It’s getting harder to believe that is possible at this point.

    A combination of 1) companies maturing their AI policy and ending the “infinite play time” model most have had since 2021 e.g. cutting spending and 2) open source and open parameter models becoming better and better and cheaper. Data centers will still be in demand for #2 but the ai providers will hurt.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    I don’t follow this extremely closely, but didn’t most companies end number 1 at least 6+ months ago?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    Some have, most haven't. And those that have had mostly adopted the philosophy of "Every token spent is a a token spent well; except the ~10% of staff that abuse/misuse them".

    And with that philosophy, you naturally want to set the per-person budget at around the 90th highest spender. Which is what most did (some version of it).

    So very few companies have actually set a truly restrictive policy. Just a "don't abuse this" policy. But that will change IMO.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    Just like this “bubble” has supposedly been about to pop for years.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago

    Burry is going by hard numbers and making a rational call. The markets are not rational, which is why it is hard to predict the timing of a crash. There are no good reasons why TSLA should be over $30.

    He's a good person to heed for safe, longer term investment.

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