It's thirty percent favoring secession in the last poll I saw, and Canada has terrible voter turnout. It could easily pass.

I'm not sure what percentage favor annexation by the US, I know Smith or Poilievre would jump at the chance to be Governor of Canada, but the conservative parties seem to split pretty hard on that.

There could plausibly be a majority of voters to start trying to secede, but not to go for annexation by the US. But if they do secede, they'll just get annexed, it's not up to the voters at that point.