by Hanane Ben
With an economy on its last legs, widespread social anger, and a political class in denial, France's situation has reached a critical point. Attacked on the markets for its uncontrolled debt, France is no longer seen as an economy "too big to fail," but as a giant "too big to be saved," provoking concern and exasperation among its European neighbors.
As several economists and financial experts point out, France is experiencing a serious crisis of confidence in the financial markets, characterized by a surge in the interest rate on its 10-year debt to nearly 5% and an unprecedented widening of the spread with Germany. With debt approaching 120% of GDP—more than €3.6 trillion—and a projected public deficit of 5.4% in 2026, the annual cost of interest alone is now nearing €90 billion, exceeding major budgets such as those for Education or Defense.
This deterioration can be explained by a fundamental problem: a stagnant economy (estimated growth of 0.5%), a loss of industrial competitiveness in the face of global competition and a very generous welfare state model — driven in particular by health and pension spending — which is no longer sustainable in view of current productivity gains.
This economic deadlock is compounded by significant doubt regarding the political will of French leaders to contain public spending. Emmanuel Macron's temporary abandonment of pension reform under political pressure illustrates this difficulty in confronting budgetary realities.
Moreover, the prospect of the 2027 presidential election is increasing investor nervousness: the proposals of the two main opposition political forces — the return of retirement at 62 years advocated by Marine Le Pen and the conversion of 600 billion euros of debt into perpetual bonds at 0% demanded by Jean-Luc Mélenchon — are perceived as financially unsustainable and destructive to the credibility of the State.
According to Nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman, France may have gone from being "too big to fail" to being "too big to be bailed out." Because of France's systemic weight, rising interest rates threaten to increase the cost of debt for the entire eurozone.
However, a financial rescue faces major obstacles: although the European Central Bank has intervention tools (such as the TPI), their activation requires strict budgetary discipline which France refuses to impose on itself.
Above all, strong political opposition would emerge within the European Union, led by Germany and supported by countries that suffered painful austerity measures during the 2012 crisis. For these creditor nations, it would be politically intolerable to finance the bailout of a partner that deliberately shirks fiscal responsibility.
A rebellious youth and depleted public services
With 190 days to go until the presidential election, France is facing an unprecedented wave of student protests, triggered by the chronic shortage of substitute teachers in suburban schools. This crisis highlights the profound deterioration of the national education system and public services, true pillars of the Republic, which are now facing a severe shortage of resources.
In a tense economic context, marked by a suffocating public debt of 120% of GDP, youth anger quickly spilled over into clashes and massive demonstrations, supported by unions and other social sectors exasperated by the rising cost of living.
This climate of tension mainly benefits the most radical political figures, polarizing the debate around a duel between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen.
On one side, the leader of La France Insoumise is capitalizing on social unrest and the momentum of youth to fuel a revolutionary dynamic.
On the other side, the National Rally candidate, far ahead in the polls, is exploiting the sense of insecurity caused by urban violence to embody the silent majority's yearning for order. Facing them, the center and moderate left are suffering from a leadership vacuum and a rivalry of egos unable to emerge.
This large-scale movement seals the twilight of a dying second term for Emmanuel Macron, who is facing massive public rejection and the financial impasse of his government.
Elected in 2017 with the promise to stem the rise of the far right, the president instead leaves behind a political landscape more fractured than ever.
If Marine Le Pen were to succeed him at the Élysée Palace, this outcome would mark a resounding historical failure for his record and political legacy.
Too busy lecturing the international community, too busy fomenting coups abroad, multiplying destabilizing actions in the Sahel, and fostering hatred and xenophobia at home, while ignoring its own wounds with the help of its paid media outlets, France has forgotten to address its own ills. This dramatic political blindness risks causing the country to implode.