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OpenAI to confidentially file for IPO as soon as Friday (www.cnbc.com)
submitted 4 months ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[–] 150 points 4 months ago (30 children)

It would be hilarious if in the end this would cause the bubble to burst

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  • [–] 77 points 4 months ago (24 children)

    It does seem like someone wants their investments back and pass on the money black hole over to the public.

    I'd be surprised if they can continue their business as is after an IPO.

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  • [–] 52 points 4 months ago (17 children)

    SpaceX is going public at $2 Trillion dollars on like $12b of revenue.

    They’re trying to foist the bag on to index funds.

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  • [–] 12 points 4 months ago (6 children)

    How can it be possible?

    How in the everloving fuck can that happen?

    How are the streets not running with blood?

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  • [–] 22 points 4 months ago* (5 children)

    waves hands

    Corruption.

    Fire all the regulators, find some shit to pump, get all your buddies in, have the NASDAQ make special rules for you, then everyone who bought in private sells on open when the index funds have to buy in. Many pensions may be legally forced to buy this shit to satisfy regulations.

    It's fucked. Well over 100x revenue multiples at IPO. They just filled their S1.

    The market makers are turning index funds into 2008's CDOs.

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  • [–] 5 points 4 months ago (4 children)

    Which is insane. CDOs were crazy, but fucking index funds is batshit insane levels of evil. Not just corruption, but all out treason.

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  • [–] 10 points 4 months ago (7 children)

    How does that even happen? They just decide what their valuation is??

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  • [–] 23 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (5 children)

    Yes.

    Elon musk had SpaceX buy XAi which bought Twitter all for increasingly more money from himself. The valuation is based on that. Somehow.

    Apparently they claim their TAM is $28T because identifying trillion dollar businesses is their core “repeatable business model”. None of the companies folded into SpaceX now are trillion dollar companies. How the argument that the core business is making trillion dollar companies, despite not making any trillion dollar companies, makes any sense I do not know.

    Also uhh… don’t look at their declining real revenue, or that they just bought $1B of depreciating assets from Tesla like $138M of cyber trucks. That definitely was not because they weren’t selling.

    Edit: Here's a video on this so you all can see exactly how shitty this deal is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X6YzlY_8tM

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  • [–] 12 points 4 months ago (4 children)

    They are going to enshittify so hard trying to get their money back... it's too bad, too. I use ChatGPT a fair bit for various things. But eras end and this could herald the end of it being useful to me. At some point I was always just going to set up my own local AI on a server here at home. Hopefully hardware prices can recover a bit before I feel compelled to move on from ChatGPT.

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  • [–] 26 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    I saw an article talking about how prices for AI are cheap as hell right now cuz they're trying to get people used to not thinking (or programing) for themselves. Then when people are dependent on it they're planning on jacking the price up.

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    • [–] 71 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    Pump and dump, anybody?

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    • [+] 61 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (31 children)
    [removed by mod]
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  • [–] 22 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    They're also behind Anthropic when it comes to expensive frontier models.

    I wouldn't buy their stock even if I was looking to invest in AI.

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  • [–] 8 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    And, as I understand it, Anthropic hasn't committed as much spending to building out new data centers, and has setup their operations to be GPU agnostic, so they can keep flexibility between NVIDIA GPUs, Google TPUs, and Amazon Trainium, and play the data center pricing game. Anthropic is better positioned to survive an AI winter (and I believe it's coming soon).

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago

    It's true.

    The field is moving so fast that things can change quickly, but the American labs are so caught up in saddling their models with safety overhead that the recent Chinese models are very close in practical use to the flagship American models if not pulling ahead (Sora vs Seedance 2).

    I don't really need to solve Erdős problems in my day to day. Outside of increasingly edge case eval competition, I'm not sure what OpenAI brings that literally everyone else isn't also capable of providing (and more).

    I'd maybe invest in Anthropic for an IPO if they turned around their own saddling of models and played nicer with open platforms, but if Claude is just going to get more and more anxious due to excessive red teaming and CC fall further and further behind stuff like Hermes Agent, they too are going to fall by the wayside as open models become the dominant inference for open infrastructure.

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    [–] 54 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    Can't wait to see their financials in the excruciating detail that's required of an IPO filing.

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    • [–] 38 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    Have they finally run out of money and need a new source of cash to burn?

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    • [–] 34 points 4 months ago

    ALTMAN is looking to cash out stock options before OPENAI crashes and burns. much like spez did with reddit.

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    [–] 14 points 4 months ago

    Who will fall for the IPOAI rug-pull?

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    [–] 13 points 4 months ago

    I kinda dislike public companies/IPOs :(

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    [–] 10 points 4 months ago (13 children)

    Can someone explain to me why it would be a bad idea to short the fuck out of this stock? I'd like to make money and be a principled human at the same time, but I'm not well versed in the stock market.

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  • [–] 16 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    It's a bad idea because shorting requires a settlement date.

    You can't keep a short the same way that you keep an investment. You need to predict at what time it is worth less than it is now.

    It's also a bad idea, because you can lose more than you invest. If you buy a stock, you can only lose the purchase price of that stock. If you short it, there's no upper limit to how much you can lose if the stock keeps rising. The people holding the stocks will do anything to keep inflating the stock price, even if it's evident to everyone that it is a bubble. As long as they can keep throwing money at it, they can keep the price going up.

    I'm not well versed in the stock market.

    This is a good reason not to short.

    principled human

    This is an even better reason not to short.

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    [–] 8 points 4 months ago

    Filing for IPO these days is just the same as having a live hand grenade in your hands and trying to sell that as quickly as possible to a nice group of people

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    [–] 4 points 4 months ago

    This is not happening.

    It's just posturing.

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    [–] 4 points 4 months ago

    Sam alttab is getting out and swapping to something else

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