China will be the best country in the world the same day fusion reactors will be available. Always in ten years. No matter when you read this.
this post was submitted on 21 Apr 2025
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Ten years from now, China will be in freefall down. Demographics.
Depends on how you define "best," I suppose. I'd say we are already there.
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This was a couple of years ago but I think the numbers are still the same: sending a shipping container from Hong Kong to Newark cost about $3000 while sending the same container in the opposite direction cost about $500. This is because we badly want the shit China makes while they don't want anything we make (the same situation that led Great Britain to force China to accept opium at gunpoint almost two hundred years ago). Sending a container to China is so cheap that for a stretch we were actually filling them with our garbage because it was less expensive to dispose of it there.
Anyone who think this represents economic weakness on China's part is batshit crazy.
This is because we badly want the shit China makes while they don’t want anything we make
That's not entirely true. China produces a lot of low-margin industrial goods that Americans then assemble into finished products. Americans produce an assortment of agricultural and mineral goods that are in high demand in China (oilseeds and grains, particularly soybeans, followed by mineral fuels and oil). We also produce a number of high-margin technology components (include aircraft and parts, electrical machinery and TV parts, and nuclear reactor parts and mechanical appliances) that are expensive but comparatively smaller by volume than the products China sends our way.
Think of it this way. If China sends us a pound of feathers and we send them a pound of iron, even if they're the same price one of them is going to fill up a shipping container a lot faster than the other. The end result is a net positive number of shipping containers coming into the US.
Anyone who think this represents economic weakness on China’s part is batshit crazy.
It's a generally symbiotic relationship and one that any neoliberal economist would laud. We've stratified our industrial economies such that we're highly specialized in respective fields. It isn't weakness on either side's part any more than the heart is stronger/weaker than the lungs because one beats faster than the other breaths.
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Containers as cheap home starting points in US is also a function of this dynamic. No need to ship empty ones back to Asia.
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It is kinda funny how people understand that hyperbolic and scandalous language grabs our attention, their attention gets grabbed by hyperbolic and scandalous language and then they laughing at those who used that language. You got played. They aren't wrong as much as you didn't understand what they are doing. An investor is rewarded for having the correct opinion but only if everyone else is wrong. They are professional liars. So they get money because they misled the public and they get money for the attention that they generated. They cashed in twice.
Personally, I do think china will face great economical challenges in the near future though. E.g. The collapse of evergrande and the consequences on the whole sector will make some waves. Let's hope the public won't suffer.
Before anyone wants to jump at me for shitting on china and praising the west (I did neither), I think e.g. america is a dumpster fire economically speaking and the eu is struggling at best.
If anyone is interested to share with me their opinion on a (in my opinion, a very probable) collapse of Tesla will impact the EV market, especially the Chinese market, please do!
China has a demographics that will severely kick it in its balls very soon, and that is probably an understatement.
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