this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2025
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For some of these, I estimate the number of items the base and then multiply by the height. Is there a better strategy, especially for items that don't fit into distinct layers?

Original post crossposted from !dailygames@lemmy.zip: https://piefed.social/post/1205620

Guess here: ๐Ÿ”— https://estimate-me.aukspot.com/archive/2025-08-29

If you'd like to discuss your guesses, please use spoiler tags!

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[โ€“] sopularity_fax@sopuli.xyz 2 points 16 hours ago

If you put them in the trash there's 0

[โ€“] ornery_chemist@mander.xyz 13 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Roughly a truncated cone with diameters ~7 nuts and ~9 nuts, and the cup is ~12 nuts high (loose guesses, it is hard to tell due perspective and nuts of different sizes). Throw in an extra layer to account for the heap at the top (which is a dome taller than 1 hazelnut, but treating it as a shorter but full layer should give some error cancellation) to give a height of 13. The volume of a truncated cone of those dimensions is ~657 cubic hazelnut diameters. Random sphere packing is 64% space-efficient (though wall effects should decrease this number) giving a total of 420 nuts (nice).

Multiple edits for clarity and typos.

AnswerThis ends up being about 5% lower than the true answer. I'm surprised it's that close. This is in the opposite direction from what I expected given wall effects (which would decrease the real number relative to my estimate). Perturbing one of the base diameters by 1 nut causes a swing of ~50, so measurement error is quite important.

funily enough I picked random numbers then just chose 420 as a funny number and got the same answer as you

[โ€“] Fleur_@aussie.zone 6 points 5 days ago

Volume of glass

Volume of hazelnuts (median)

Packing efficiency of spheres in a cylinder

Do some math

Be wrong by an order of magnitude because all the little hazelnuts are concealing one giant one

[โ€“] Gustephan@lemmy.world 5 points 6 days ago

Vibes. I look at it and try to guess and submit a number within 5 or 10 seconds. It may not be as accurate but I feel like I get more benefit training my ability to estimate at a glance than I do training my ability to do math and spatial reasoning assisted by math. Im already really good at math and math assisted spatial reasoning

My method was that I waited for @m0darn@lemmy.ca to do the work and used it as a baseline. I got 8 away.

[โ€“] m0darn@lemmy.ca 8 points 6 days ago (2 children)

I did

V=piร—rยฒร—h

and estimated:

r=4 (from some at the top left)

h=12

This gave 603. The link said too high, so realized I'd neglected packing factor. Google said that spheres typically pack at 64% efficiency, so I guessed 386. Too low.

[โ€“] WiseScorpio@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

These aren't spheres, though, so the packing efficiency could be better, like 72% or better. These look better packed than those vases filled with glass marbles. So it could even be in the 80s.

[โ€“] m0darn@lemmy.ca 1 points 6 days ago

Yeah I went 80% next which was too high. 72% is very close to the answer in the link.

[โ€“] aeiou_ckr@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Is there a name for this equation ands can you explain the pix part of the equation?

[โ€“] abbadon420@sh.itjust.works 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Its not "pix" its "pi * rยฒ * h". It's a basic equation for the volume (V) of a cylinder.

[โ€“] aeiou_ckr@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago

Gotcha, thanks.

[โ€“] stormdelay@sh.itjust.works 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

It's the volume of a cylinder, pi times height times radius squared

[โ€“] aeiou_ckr@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago

Oh. Thanks. :)

[โ€“] nutbutter@discuss.tchncs.de 7 points 6 days ago (2 children)
[โ€“] otter@lemmy.ca 3 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I love it ๐Ÿ˜„

Did you extract those clips for this post, and do you have a recommended method for doing that? I sometimes find clips on getyarn, but the site barely loads half the time

Just looked up "Gibby fat cakes" on YouTube.

[โ€“] Pulptastic@midwest.social 6 points 6 days ago

The cup is about 13 hazelnuts high. The top circumference looks like it could hold about 24, the bottom about 20, so Iโ€™ll average that to 22.

13*22=286

[โ€“] Klear@quokk.au 3 points 5 days ago

Zero.

Ceci ne sont pas noisettes.

[โ€“] jh29a@lemmy.blahaj.zone 4 points 6 days ago

I counted 11 down and 7 across, so I assumed the radius is 3.5 hazelnuts and the height eleven, making pi rยฒ h = 423 hazelnuts. that is, if they haven't snuck in any walnuts.

[โ€“] Siegfried@lemmy.world 6 points 6 days ago

Imagej

In arbitrary units, I need in pixels estimations for:

Height of the vase H

Top diameter of the vase Dt

Bottom diameter of the vase Db

Mean diameter of a hazelnut Dh (measuring a few of them)

Packaging factor F... something arround .6? I'm sure there is a better way of estimating it. Like counting air and hazelnut areas on the image but I'm not sure how to correlate 2D to 3D in this case.

The volume of the vase is Vv (H,Dt,Db)

The volume of a single hazelnut Vh (Dh)

N = Vv F / Vh

[โ€“] 6stringringer@lemmy.zip 5 points 6 days ago (3 children)

Someone say a God Damn number. _

[โ€“] ivanafterall@lemmy.world 3 points 6 days ago (1 children)
[โ€“] 6stringringer@lemmy.zip 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Thank you. I feel better about this whole thing now.

[โ€“] ivanafterall@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)
[โ€“] Krelis_@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago

Off by 38, not bad, I got similar

[โ€“] Jimmycrackcrack@lemmy.ml 1 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)
[โ€“] hakunawazo@lemmy.world 2 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Totally unrelated: Now I have the urge for a doner kebab.

[โ€“] c5e3@lemmy.world 3 points 6 days ago

i'll eat one every day and tell you how many years are inside the jar

[โ€“] olafurp@lemmy.world 3 points 6 days ago

I'm going to guess the cup is around 12 nuts high and 5 nuts in diameter at the center.

Let's assume it's a cylinder to get the volume (2/5)^2 * pi * 12 as the volume or around 236 nuts.

The packing density of a sphere is 74% but the edges do play a factor so nudge it down by a bit to get 70%

So I'm going to guess 165 nuts.

I got it laughably wrong

[โ€“] Wolf314159@startrek.website 3 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I'd ask a couple thousand people to guess in private. So the most popular answer would probably be either surprisingly close to correct or Cuppy McHazelnutface.

No. Take the mean, not the mode.

[โ€“] Ludrol@szmer.info 3 points 6 days ago

Avarage all the guesses of others. (Doesn't work if they also use this method)

[โ€“] TimewornTraveler@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

this was fun. thanks. I like the stats on that website

None, those are pretzel bites

[โ€“] xx3rawr@sh.itjust.works 2 points 6 days ago

, side view

[โ€“] anyhow2503@lemmy.world 71 points 1 week ago
  1. Set lower bound by counting how many are visible in the photo
  2. Grow disinterested
  3. Guess some number above the result from step 1
[โ€“] TheCriticalMember@aussie.zone 27 points 1 week ago (8 children)

For a tapered section like that, you could estimate bottom and top layers and then average them. Then estimate height and multiply. You'd want to include an overlap factor as the roughly spherical nuts would settle in between each other somewhat. I'd imagine there's some accepted value out there for that.

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[โ€“] rowinxavier@lemmy.world 19 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Start with the bottom, count how many are visible on the lowest layer. This gives you half the circumference of the lower end.

Repeat for the highest part of the cup that is still cup, not above the line.

Multiply each of these by 2 and you have the circumferences of each end of the cut cone.

Rearrange the circle area formula to get the radius from circumference and you have the radius of each end of the cone.

Now use the cut cone formula to calculate the volume in terms of hazelnuts.

Next, take the radius of the top circle and estimate how far above that the highest nut is. Use whatever formula seems more appropriate, in this case maybe just a right angle triangle formula with a full rotation, to estimate the volume of the top.

Sum that together with the conic volume and you have a good estimate.

My estimate, at least 3 hazelnuts.

Good luck

[โ€“] Deestan@lemmy.world 14 points 1 week ago (1 children)
[โ€“] qevlarr@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago

You don't have to actually lick it, you can just imagine

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