MarmiteLover123

Yemen is basically showing that even a small nation being bombed like they are can still inflict massive damage to the Americans, and their empire, which includes the zionist entity

Yes, but with the support of a large regional military power/state actor with advanced military technology that they are prepared to let you use and locally manufacture (in Iran), and being able to accept the consequences of carrying out military action (over 1000 airstikes since March 15). Most small nations don't have that.

This could be the second retired Israeli Patriot PAC-2 battery being sent to Ukraine, one was already planned to be sent earlier this year, or it could be about refurbishing that already planned battery. Interesting that the deal was made under Biden, I thought this was a Trump idea at first.

I don't think more Patriot PAC-2s will help against Russian ballistic missiles, the altitude ceiling for ballistic targets on the PAC 2 is 20km, Iskander M ballistic missiles can reach altitudes as high as 50km. Ukraine would need more Patriot PAC-3 MSE batteries for a more realistic chance of interception, or to get one of their rare Soviet era S-300V batteries operational, if they have any left. The loss of an S-300V battery at Sumy was very costly, there are no replacements for this that Ukraine can source.

Not really, the Israeli full statement also says that the Israeli Arrow 2 and 3 systems also failed to intercept.

Israel’s Arrow air defenses, US THAAD system both failed to intercept Houthi missile, sources say - The Times of Israel

Both the Israeli Air Force’s long-range Arrow air defense system and the American THAAD system failed to intercept the Houthi missile this morning, defense sources say.

The IDF says it made several attempts to down the missile, which ultimately landed within the perimeter of Ben Gurion Airport.

To understand what happened, we have to understand how the layered air defence shield works. There's Israeli Arrow 3 and optionally US Navy SM-3 for midcourse interception, then Israeli Arrow 2 and THAAD for terminal phase intercepts (and David's Sling if the missile is fired at a military site). No Iron Dome, it's not designed to intercept ballistic missiles.

Here's an exaggerated not to scale graphic showing the phases of flight of a MaRV equipped ballistic missile, the captions are based on the flight behaviour of the Iranian Fattah-1 missile:

The first chance to intercept after the launch of the missile is detected by US Space Force early warning satellites, is early in the midcourse/unpowered flight phase, or even late in the boost phase with a US Navy SM-3, if a US Navy warship is close enough to Yemen and has an SM-3 to spare. That was not the case according to reports, no mention of SM-3. Then the next chance to intercept is with an Arrow-3 in the midcourse, the missile evidently evaded midcourse interception, the Palestine-2 and Fattah-1 missiles can do that better than others.

Then there's the terminal intercept systems in Arrow 2 and THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense). The reason THAAD was brought in was to plug a defensive gap in the Arrow-2 system, which has a maximum altitude ceiling of 50km. Thus, a Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRV) capable ballistic missile could glide above that ceiling, before diving straight down towards the target at a steep angle, giving Arrow 2 a very short time to engage (around 36 seconds to illuminate, fire and intercept if the average speed of the Marv is 4200kph, Arrow-2 can engage targets at altitudes between 8-50km). THAAD plugs this gap as it's maximum altitude ceiling is 150km, so MaRVs can't glide above that (hence terminal high altitude air defence acronym). THAAD can't engage targets at lower altitudes though, it's minimum altitude floor is 40km, meaning that THAAD on its own could be defeated by MaRVs gliding under this floor. Thus THAAD is designed to be used in conjunction with systems like Arrow-2 or Patriot which cover those lower altitudes, they compliment each other as a layered terminal air defence net. To make interception as difficult as possible, a MaRV could glide say at an altitude between 40-50km before diving down to the target, at the edge of both THAAD and Arrow-2s floor and ceiling respectively. So I'd guess what happened was something like that, and both THAAD and Arrow-2 fired interceptors and both missed this time.

Graphic showing THAAD engagement envelope, with a hypothetical Iranian Dezful MaRV trajectory plan to glide under the engagement envelope:

Swear I thought that SLS died years ago. How the hell was it still around?

US and UK airstrikes continue on Yemen for the 51st night in a row. The following governorates were hit by airstrikes:

Hodeidah:

• Unspecified amount of airstrikes hit Ras Isa Fuel Port.

Sana'a:

• Fighter jets heard over Sana'a.
• 3 airstrikes hit the Sawad area in the Sanhan district.
• Unspecified amount of airstrikes hit Al-Malikah area in Bani Hushaysh.
• 6 airstrikes hit the Bani Matar District.
• 2 airstrikes hit the Sa'wan area of Shu'ub District.
• Unspecified amount of airstrikes hit Al Rawdah area of Bani Al Harith District, near the airport.
• 2 airstrikes hit the Attan area of Bani Matar District.

Ma'rib:

• 2 airstrikes on Raghwan district.

Al-Jawf:

• 3 airstrikes hit the Khabb wa ash Sha'af District.

Big focus on Sana'a today, after it was excluded from strikes yesterday.

Warning for potential graphic imagery during ongoing airstrikes:

Al Masirah TV twitter

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I hope to get my post about the Franken SAMs out tomorrow, but who knows, maybe Iran will unveil another ballistic missile, or Yemen will hit another target, and delay it further.

Latest statement by the Yemeni Armed Forces on the ballistic missile strike at Ben Gurion airport, and the announcement of a air blockade on Israel, something that they've been working on since March 22nd. I think the direct hit very near the airport terminal and control tower has given Yahya Sare'e the necessary political capital and confidence to announce it more broadly now.

Difference is Israel has nuclear warheads and ICBMs, and Iran does not. But good point on the ambiguity doctrine, that's very true.

Because if Iran takes further steps to develop a nuclear weapon, it in effect acts as an open invitation for the USA to bomb Iran. Iran does not want that. So by leaving nuclear weapons as an issue open to negotiation, Iran hopes to extract some concessions (sanctions relief, aspects like the ballistic missile programme not being a part of the deal) using the bargaining chips of increased uranium enrichment and more missiles to extract these concessions.

This isn't the first time they've tried to do this. Brigadier General Yahya Sare'e said Israeli airports were an "unsafe area" when they first targeted them over a month ago, but back then the missiles were intercepted. It's just with the missile not being intercepted this time, and impacting around 500m away from the control tower and main terminal, they have the political capital to make a public announcement like this. The Yemeni Armed Forces have been trying to carry out an air blockade against Israel for some time, since March 22nd 2025 at least.

I covered this here

There's a joke in here about missiles rolling of the truck to Yemen, and more F-18 rolling off of US aircraft carriers as a result, but I'm not a good enough comedian to do it.

Publicly unveiling it on Iranian satellite TV definitely reads like a bargaining chip of sorts (the missile was tested on April 17th apparently). The clearest information we have on the US offer to Iran at the moment is from a Witkoff Fox News interview: restriction of Iranian uranium enrichment levels to 3.67% (current level is 60%), and some form of restriction on the Iranian ballistic missile program with regards to longer range missiles. This is a big middle finger to that second part, unveiling an ASBM in the medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) range category, 1000-3000km range. Also a missile with the potential accuracy for counterforce targeting at land targets at those ranges, which is the current biggest issue with Iranian MRBMs (Kheibar Shekan and Fattah-1 series). The Qassem is likely easier to intercept than those, but it's still a MaRV equipped ballistic missile, and if fired in sufficient numbers should be able to penetrate the Israeli air defence system.

There are countermeasures that can be used against electro-optical seekers on cruise and ballistic missiles to protect high value targets (see smoke generators at Kerch bridge, the bridge that connects Russia to Crimea), but it's impractical to deploy then everywhere.

Big news from Iran, with the suspension of negotiations between the USA and Iran. Iran has unveiled a new Anti Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) called the Qassem Basir. This is the ASBM version of the land attack Haj Qassem ballistic missile, with a range of 1400km for the land attack version, Iran claims a range of either 1200km or 1300km for the anti ship version (conflicting information currently). Yes, these missiles are named after Qassem Soleimani. This is big news as the current longest range dedicated ASBM in the Iranian arsenal (and potentially Yemeni arsenal) is the Zulfiqar Basir, with a range of 700km, so we're looking at nearly double the range.

Qassem Basir ASBM variant:

View of the target in the bottom half of the image from the missile's electro-optical seeker:

Haj Qassem land attack original variant:

Now, the Zulfiqar, Dezful, and Qassem missiles are all part of the same family of ballistic missiles (which I will call the Zulfiqar family), in that they all use a Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRV) of similar design, with Dezful and Qassem being ways to extend the range of the Zulfiqar MaRV, from 700km, to 1000km with Dezful, to 1400km with Qassem. With an ASBM version of Zulfiqar already in existence, it makes sense to use the Qassem as a longer range ASBM platform.

How this missile works and acquires it's target is similar to how other Iranian shorter range ASBMs work, and an extension of the Pershing-II concept (first ever MaRV equipped land attack ballistic missile). The missile is targeted at an appropriate re-entry point, near the actual or predicted location of a ship. During re-entry, the MaRV performs a "pull up" maneuver, then a "glide phase". During this glide, the electro optical seeker, likely an infrared camera, acquires it's target using image matching techniques (Iran calls this AI now, yes the AI mind virus is everywhere), and them plans a trajectory towards it, before performing a final dive to the target, ideally with an impact velocity above Mach 2.

The big breakthrough here is getting the seeker to survive the higher speed and higher altitude re-entry associated with longer range. The Zulfiqar Basir had a burnout and initial terminal velocity of over Mach 7, and the Raad-500/Tankeel of Mach 8. So that was the previous limit. The land attack Haj Qassem had a peak velocity of Mach 12. With the range being reduced slightly for the anti ship version, likely to reduce velocity to ensure survival of the electro optical seeker, peak velocity is likely not as high. But I'd guess a safe estimate is that the seeker can now survive Mach 10+ speeds, a noticeable improvement.

Iran has unveiled this very covertly, under the guise of a "new missile to target Israel and evade THAAD", but the Basir designation (means to see or perceive in this context, used for Iranian ballistic missiles with electro-optical seekers,), and presence of an electro-optical (likely infrared) seeker on the MaRV, tells a different story. This is an ASBM that works in the same ways as other Iranian ASBMs. Yes it can be used to strike land targets in Israel with higher accuracy in GNSS jammed environments (like shorter range Iranian missiles have done in the past versus US military bases, but now at long range versus Israel, solving the accuracy problem for long range Iranian ballistic missile attacks), but that's a dual use capability that could make a hypothetical "Operation True Promise III" counterforce attack more viable in future. The real question for now is, if Ansarallah/the Houthis in Yemen will get their hands on it.

This is a card that Iran has had up it's sleeve and is now being played, the question is, how will they play it. Exclusively for themselves, or will Yemen get it to strike US Navy warships. Without further modifications to increase range involving lighter payloads and suboptimal minimum energy trajectories, it's not viable to hit targets in Israel from Yemen (2000km range is needed for that), and I can't see the electro optical sensor surviving re-entry under those conditions.

4 minute long video is included in the article:

Iran unveils its latest ballistic missile 'Qassem Basir', May 4 2025