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MAGA broke Grindr... Again... (europe.pub)
submitted 1 year ago by to c/politicalmemes@lemmy.world
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Interesting how this seems to happen every single time there's a large gathering of Republicans.

An outage report graph and US map showing outage reports for Grindr concentrated on Glendale, AZ.
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[–] 1 point 1 year ago (5 children)

You're trying to project a likely true statement onto data that does not mean what you think it means.

It's why all of the replies I've had have been about closeted gay/bi people in the Republican party and have addressed nothing about the main point of my comment: internet infrastructure.

I never denied anything you're saying here. I mostly agree with it. But I'm autistic and have to explain why this outage map is meaningless. It's a perfect example of correlation not meaning causation.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    It’s a perfect example of correlation not meaning causation.

    If G (grindr outages) is strongly correlated to R (large Republican events) there are only a handful of explanations:

    1. Random chance, like the per capita consumption of margarine correlates with the divorce rate in Maine.

    If you trawl large numbers of pairs of data sets for correlation, you will inevitably find some which have a low probability of being that strongly correlated, just as if you randomly survey large numbers of people their age, eventually you will find individuals who are "surprisingly old" or "surprisingly tall".

    This kind of fallacy is best avoided by testing only hypotheses that you have a plausible cause and effect scenario. In the case of GOP gatherings, there are a lot of men who plausibly would want to hide their sexuality so do not want their liberal neighbours or colleagues to see a grindr profile pop up where suspicion could fall on them, and who therefore see being away from home as an opportunity to engage in more anonymous man on man sex.

    So with a reasonable hypothesis, it's then reasonable to all of the data supports it. It does. It's by no means proof, by this isn't a court of law.

    1. G causes R. Not possible.

    It takes days to arrange a large event, so the GOP cannot respond to Grindr outages by rushing to hold a convention in that location, amusing though the idea is.

    1. R causes G.

    Highly plausible, as discussed.

    1. Some third factor A causes both R and G.

    This is like the correlation between hand size and foot size which is particularly strong if you only include children. (A here is age and hormonal changes over years.) I can't think of anything that would cause both Republican events and Grindr outages.

    I think it's fair to conclude that R causes G here.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

    This is a perfect example of someone using statistics to come to a bad conclusion.

    The problem is that you don't understand internet infrastructure. You're coming to a false conclusion because you are assuming something to be true that isn't. So you are starting from a faulty premise. All reasoning can be sound afterwards and still give you the wrong answer.

    You are assuming that internet website's and apps have outages independent of one another. That a site "going down" is only caused by the servers being overwhelmed with traffic that is directly requesting interaction with that one specific server.

    And this is just not true in the slightest. Even for "self hosted" websites. Internet infrastructure (especially in America with no net neutrality) is heavily dependent on the ISP prioritizing some packets over other packets. It is an extremely priority driven system that is far too complex to come to conclusions on with this single chart showing USER REPORTS (another unreliable factor) of outages.

    So you can ChatGPT me all the responses you like. But you still haven't addressed this very simple point: A WEBSITE DOES NOT EXPERIENCE OUTAGES ONLY BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE USING THAT SPECIFIC WEBSITE A LOT. Your grandmas art website can experience outages because of high usage in the same area.

    Like I said. That same day and location websites and apps of all kinds experienced outages due to the spike in traffic from the event. Unless you have ISP data (you don't), showing which servers were causing the largest spike in usage, you can't come to the conclusion you are coming to.

    You're trying really hard to prove something. So you are making an assumption and keep ignoring that you are in your replies.

    I'm simply saying: there is not enough data to come to a conclusion one way or the other. We have no idea if Grindr went had outages due to Republicans using the it a lot OR if because Republicans just just caused a spike in Internet usage that made the connection to Grindr unreliable.

    And given the statistics of gay/bi men being 5% of the total population. Its really heavily weighted in favor of the 95% of other people just using the internet a lot. Well, 100%, because gay/bi men also use the internet for non Grindr related stuff.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Yes, A WEBSITE CAN EXPERIENCE OUTAGES WHEN PEOPLE ARE USING THAT SPECIFIC WEBSITE A LOT because otherwise DDOS wouldn't be effective.

    I.e. your "DOES NOT" is incorrect.

    In future, try not to lecture people with computer science degrees that it's impossible for websites to be brought down by spikes in demand.

    Also your assertion that I'm using an LLM to talk on social media without checking my post history on just how unreliable I think it is is foolish, and of course another example of you being incorrect. Did you not think that other people are capable of knowing anything? Weird. Do I even sound remotely like an LLM? Or did you think that only LLMs are capable of enumerating and numbering logical possibilities for correlations?! Not everyone is incapable of independent thought or structuring an argument. Where did you think LLMs learned it from?

    And if, as you repeatedly insist, it must have been that all internet infrastructure was down, the headline (at last somewhere) would be "GOP event crashes the internet", not "GOP event crashes grindr, again".

    GOP events keep crashing grindr. Your long and convoluted arguments that this couldn't possibly have happened specifically to grindr are incorrect, and your insistent rejection of the obvious explanation that closeted Republicans got the chance for some consequence free sex for once is irrational and biased.

    You really are falling at the occam's razor thing. Like, properly badly.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (1 child)

    Holy shit. I'm done reading your replies. It's like you can't read.

    I never said a website can't go down due to high demand. I said it's not the ONLY way it goes down. Holy shit reading comprehension and reasoning are not your strong suite.

    Maybe you should stick with ChatGPT replies. (That was a joke and an insult. Because you sound like a lifeless robot. It wasn't an actual assertion).

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    Run out of rational points, resorting to a raft of insults.

    You're still missing a reason to dismiss the obvious cause for the correlation. I did explain that a couple of posts ago, but instead of addressing any of t the points or the logic of the argument, you just claimed I didn't author it myself, which isn't much of an argument even if it were true, which it is not.

    You're missing any news whatsoever that any other websites went down, so as I warned you I would, I call BULLSHIT on the whole infrastructure all went down, all internet services were affected nonsense you invented without a shred of evidence.

    Why on earth are you trying so hard and for so long to resist admitting that it's highly likely that grindr goes down at big GOP events because gay or bi Republicans are far more likely to be closeted and being away from home is their best chance all year round for some man on man sex while their location is some anonymous and deniable hotel room?

    Everyone goes back to their hotels at the same time after the big Republican gathering and all the spike logs on to grindr. Like the British electricity spike in the ad break in the nation's favourite non-BBC soap opera, there's a grindr spike for big Republican events. The British electricity spike is daily and the energy generating companies are very prepared for it every evening. The Republican grindr spike is much rarer and changes time and location, so grindr isn't ready for it.

    For about the fourth time, use Occam's razor.

    It's the secret Republican gay sex spike that keeps crashing grindr.

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