Interesting how this seems to happen every single time there's a large gathering of Republicans.
It’s a perfect example of correlation not meaning causation.
If G (grindr outages) is strongly correlated to R (large Republican events) there are only a handful of explanations:
- Random chance, like the per capita consumption of margarine correlates with the divorce rate in Maine.
If you trawl large numbers of pairs of data sets for correlation, you will inevitably find some which have a low probability of being that strongly correlated, just as if you randomly survey large numbers of people their age, eventually you will find individuals who are "surprisingly old" or "surprisingly tall".
This kind of fallacy is best avoided by testing only hypotheses that you have a plausible cause and effect scenario. In the case of GOP gatherings, there are a lot of men who plausibly would want to hide their sexuality so do not want their liberal neighbours or colleagues to see a grindr profile pop up where suspicion could fall on them, and who therefore see being away from home as an opportunity to engage in more anonymous man on man sex.
So with a reasonable hypothesis, it's then reasonable to all of the data supports it. It does. It's by no means proof, by this isn't a court of law.
- G causes R. Not possible.
It takes days to arrange a large event, so the GOP cannot respond to Grindr outages by rushing to hold a convention in that location, amusing though the idea is.
- R causes G.
Highly plausible, as discussed.
- Some third factor A causes both R and G.
This is like the correlation between hand size and foot size which is particularly strong if you only include children. (A here is age and hormonal changes over years.) I can't think of anything that would cause both Republican events and Grindr outages.
I think it's fair to conclude that R causes G here.