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Fund managers quietly fear Trump doesn’t have a tariff plan and that he ‘might be insane’
(www.independent.co.uk)
this post was submitted on 14 Apr 2025
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I know it's fun to circle-jerk around these headlines, but it's a misdirection to give lay-people something titter about because it's too difficult to explain what's really happening. His behaviour actually is rational, he's just an idiot.
For Trump's entire life, the US stocks/bonds markets have mapped closely to market greed/fear respectively. When the market gets spooked, they turn to more conservative investments, and US bonds have historically been that. (Government bonds are typically seen as the least risky investment, because it's unlikely that a country falls apart and fails to pay its debts).
Fast forward to today, the US has a bunch of debt that needs refinancing this year, and lately, we haven't been getting good interest rates on our bond sales (which indicates people are seeing US bonds as more risky than usual). So Trump said, "no problem, we just need to instill a bit of fear in the market to drive investors to bonds, which will cause the interest rate to drop, so we can refinance our debt at a better rate." So he announces a bunch of nonsensical tariffs, which tanks the stock market, and just like he expected the bond market saw a dip in interest rates......for about a day, followed by a sharp increase! That sharp increase is why Trump agreed to pause the tariffs. Not only did it not work how he thought, it would seem he exposed a pronounced decline in trust for the US' ability to pay its debts. Instead of running to US bonds, investors ran everywhere else (gold, the Swiss Franc, the Euro, etc.)
I don't know what his next move is, but I have to think he's feeling a bit desperate. He's going to probably try to up his "blame the Democrats for their spending" game, of course without acknowledging that he has also only increased spending (even with all of DOGE's hard fought, and definitely not half-baked, budget cuts).
But all his strategies seem to be overt market manipulation, and nothing else. I feel like it really highlights the difference between someone who can create actual value using intelligent planning and innovation, and someone who is a capitalist leech who has fooled themselves into thinking that buying low and selling high does something useful for someone.
That still feels like too much thought/reasoning for him. I could see some other idiot connecting those dots and convincing Trump it was his idea. Or just Putin trying to crash the economy.
I can guarantee you have put way more thought into this than he ever has, or will.
His true masters have put more thought than that into it. They just can't control him to the extent they thought. But it's mostly working out for them.
There is nothing to be gained from assuming your opponent is not acting rationally.
Oh, he's acting rationally from the perspective of someone who thinks he has all the answers and wants to throw his weight around. He's trying to be a tough business guy to China and is only backing off when someone finally manages to explain to him that it's a bad idea in terms simple enough that he can sit through them.
You can't guarantee that at all. You want it to be true because it serves your own ideas and rhetoric but in reality, you have no idea what he has, hasn't or will think about it.
I... respectfully disagree.
Every time I've made the mistake of thinking these idiots have some deeper plan I inevitably learn that there is in fact no plan.
Trump is old. He was desperate to get elected so he didn't die in jail. He achieved that by promising to deport brown people, be mean to poor people, and implement tariffs. He's doing those three things.
As regards the tariffs, he's a kid kicking an ants nest to watch everyone scurry around. It pleases him greatly to be able to make some stupid post on truth social and watch the earth tilt on it's axis.
He implemented the tariffs because he said he was going to and the yes-ken's and yes-barbi's told him "yes that would be amaze".
You're right, the bond market is what ultimately spooked him. When the interest rate volatility started climbing someone staged an intervention and told him how serious it was. He basically said that in the presser when he said people were getting twitchy or whatever he said.
However, there's still no plan. That's the only explanation for the on again off again flip flop don routine.
his only move is cutting spending (actually) raising taxes, and running a surplus. That and maybe dont be such a fucking dumbass.