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[–] 17 points 1 month ago (1 child)

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Trump's "total control" of Hormuz claim is falling apart under its own data.

ExpandTrump has repeatedly claimed the US has "100% control" and "owns" the Strait of Hormuz, calling the blockade "a wall of steel" and insisting "there is nothing Iran can do about it." His own Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, backed him up with a claim of ~9 million barrels/day flowing through the strait.

The numbers say otherwise. Ship-tracking data from Kpler shows just 14 vessels crossed the strait Tuesday — down from ~130/day before the war — and 11 of those 14 used the route Iran controls. CNN reports only 84 total vessels transited last week, with just 6 crossing Monday, none of them crude tankers. Reuters separately clocked a one-week low of 8 vessels. Middle Eastern producers have already maxed out pipeline capacity trying to route around the strait entirely, and analysts note satellite imagery shows tankers still crossing with transponders switched off just to avoid detection — hardly the picture of a US "wall of steel."

Iran, for its part, says the obvious: Washington doesn't control the strait, and Tehran retains the capacity to disrupt traffic whenever it chooses — a claim the empty shipping lanes back up far better than Trump's Truth Social posts do.

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  • [–] 16 points 1 month ago

    🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Trump's "Control" Over Hormuz — A Timeline

    ➡️March 9: First mention — declares "the war is very complete, pretty much," claims Iran's military destroyed and the strait already reopened, and says he's considering having the US seize control of the waterway outright. (CBS News)

    ➡️March 15–16: Asks NATO and China for help reopening the strait; both decline. He shrugs it off — "maybe we shouldn't even be there." (Guardian)

    ➡️April 12–13: After Islamabad talks collapse, announces a full US naval blockade of Iran's ports — while Iran is simultaneously blockading the strait from its own side. CENTCOM has to publicly clarify the blockade targets Iranian ports, not the strait itself. (Washington Post, Reuters)

    ➡️April 17–18: Iran briefly reopens the strait for a Lebanon-ceasefire window. The US blockade stays in place regardless — Iran shuts the strait back down and calls it a ceasefire violation. (Reuters, AP)

    ➡️May 23: CNN's fact-check unit logs 28 false claims from Trump in a single week, including "total control of the Strait of Hormuz" — undercut by Trump himself admitting in the same remarks that Iran was still charging tolls to let ships through. (CNN)

    ➡️August 11–12 (now): Same script, recycled — "we own it," "100% control," "a wall of steel," even a "praise be to Allah" this time. Ship-tracking data (Reuters/Kpler) shows 8–14 vessels crossing daily, down from ~130/day pre-war, most using the route Iran controls.

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    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/191118

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