Fizz comments on Chinese memory can now match the speed and latency configs of the RAM in our gaming PCs

[–] Fizz@lemmy.nz 15 points 1 month ago (8 children)

There is so much over investment in memory its going to be dirt cheap again in 2028

[–] Bitswap@lemmy.dbzer0.com 23 points 1 month ago (6 children)

This is simply not true. All the major players are not investing in production. They are simply letting the demand stack and prices to rise.

China entering the market will help some, but expect these chips to be banned quite quickly in the western world for fear of communists. They are already blacklisted by many companies.

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[–] Fizz@lemmy.nz 19 points 1 month ago* (5 children)

Yes they are. Samsung and SK hynix are building 4 new fabs I'm Korea 1 in the US. Sandisk and kioxia are building extra capacity in Japan. Micron is building new fan in the US. Its nearly a trillion in investment for additional capacity. These are expected to hit the market in 2027 and 2028 with lag to backfill demand.

Chinese ram will be good but not good enough to block it. Business will keep buying the high preformance stuff and consumers can have the cheap modules but they buy so little it won't affect anything.

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[–] Bitswap@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Exactly. Expected to hit the market in 2027 and 2028. This investment in fabs happened years ago. For example, Samsung invested in the Taylor fab (which should start production, a little early, late this year) back in 2021. Samsung KRW6 was announced this year, but thats a new technology, not new capacity. You cant build and turn on a fab in the short term.

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[–] Atomic@sh.itjust.works 10 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Can we just appreciate how you first told him he's wrong for suggesting memory will be cheap again in 2028.

Only to immediately try to frame it as "memory won't be cheap until 2028 so that proves my point!"

Which is exactly what he said to begin with. Top notch. 👌

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[–] Bitswap@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 point 1 month ago* (1 child)

I fully disagree that memory will be cheap in 2028. Please feel free to come and ping this thread in 2028 to tell me Im wrong.

My firm belief is that memory will continue to increase in price through the end of 2027 and likely level out in 2028. The price will not go 'down' in the next few years.

New technologies will be introduced, but all consumers and corporations want the latest and greatest. Demand will far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future.

Edit: just to add, if you keep up with the news and financial disclosurers, all the output from those new fabs has already been presold to the usual suspects.

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[–] Atomic@sh.itjust.works 1 point 1 month ago