In June, he was at 58%.

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[–] 54 points 1 month ago (10 children)

For anybody that doubts this, I looked it up. Some polls are more in the 55%-60% range, but there are also these:
Reuters/Ipsos (August 21–24): 65% disapprove and 33% approve.
American Research Group (August 15–19): 66% disapprove and 30% approve.

I looked into it because I suspected it was more like 35% approve, 50% disapprove, leaving 15% fucking clueless somehow.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (8 children)

    I used to follow the Gallup polls for this, because of the long time series and general reputability. But then it turned out they do not have a spine. Since then I always look at the aggregated results at https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin . Every poll has a significant margin of error (depending on sample size) and bias (depending on methodology), so aggregating them is generally a good idea.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago* (7 children)
  • [–] 1 point 4 weeks ago (4 children)

    Realclearpolitics is worse than Nate Silver. They’re openly conservative and manipulate their polling average by accepting only GOP internals not dem ones, which means their averages are super biased GOP.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 weeks ago (3 children)

    Do you have sources on that? If so, who is a better option than both of them?

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  • [–] 2 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

    I mean the wikipedia page shows it’s “conservative”.

    As for what sources to rely on instead. G Elliot Morris is the gold standard. But there are plenty of hobbyist websites that do just as well (if not better since include internals from both sides) as RCP.

    For example: https://plusminus4.substack.com/p/2026-senate-polling-averages

    There’s also the fivethirtyeight subreddit on reddit 🤢 which has all the polling nerds and that’s the best place to find resources and people who may know what they’re talking about. Unfortunately such a community hasn’t established itself on the thredi.

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