A new poll shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 5 points over a month before the November midterm elections.

The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday showed Talarico with 49 percent support from voters and Paxton with 44 percent support, with 3 percent saying they are undecided. This new poll is the second in a monthly series of polling results released by TPOR. Last month's poll showed Talarico's ahead by 6 points, 48-42.

Independent voters favor Talarico by double digits, 58-26, with 5 percent who say they are undecided. Paxton holds the lead among white voters and voters 55 years and above. Talarico leads among Latino voters, Black voters, voters under 55, college-educated voters, men and women, the poll stated.

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[–] 4 points 2 days ago (2 children)

IMHO, Clinton v Trump is also the perfect example of normies not understanding how statistics and probability works.

Trump had a nearly 30% chance of winning. That’s a legit possibility of winning. If powerball had a 30% chance of winning, everyone would be running to buy a ticket.

People saw Clinton at 70% and seemed to think that was a lock. 70% odd isn’t a 100% chance of winning. It’s 70%.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    That was just the FiveThirtyEight model. Most other models had Clinton in the high 90’s.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago

    Which was wild because a lot of the polls were Clinton around +4 with about a +/-4 margin.

    I remember Silver shitting on those high 90’s models because they clearly weren’t baking in enough room for the margin of error.

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