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Megathread for the US war on Iran | Week 41 of 2026 (europe.pub)
submitted 1 week ago by to c/worldnews@lemmygrad.ml
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This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).

Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.

^Previous\ megathread^

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[–] 10 points 6 days ago (7 children)

can we get a fact check/commentary on this article in naked capitalism? specifically:

Oil flows through the Middle East have staged an impressive rebound, with export volumes recovering to near pre-war levels even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal.

The recovery in physical flows has reduced the probability of the most extreme shortage scenarios and should gradually remove some of the scarcity premium in oil prices. But those barrels are moving at higher cost, with longer voyage times, heavier use of tankers and less spare capacity in the logistics system.

Consequently, Iran’s ability to weaponize its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz is breaking down, though this increases the risk of unpredictable military escalation.

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  • [–] 17 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 child)

    These quotes say a whole lot of nothing imo. Even if the bogus claim of export volume rebound is ignored, the "higher cost, longer voyage times, heavier use of tankers and less spare capacity in the logistics system" is a direct consequence of Iran's ability to enforce its sovereignty over the SoH. It's attritional warfare that heavily favors Iran in the same way as a Shahed drone for a Patriot interceptor does. The language used in the last quote makes it appear as if this outlet is running a more palatable cover of the same rhetoric spewed by the US ruling class. "Weaponize chokehold" versus "enforce sovereignty" for example. I don't have time to read the full article or look into them further rn but do we know their political orientation?

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  • [–] 14 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

    I think this is a very good breakdown. The article operates on questionable assumptions and while not outright bad (parts of it are correct) it does appear to partially contradict itself in an attempt to present a more favorable picture for a US/Western audience.

    I don't have time to read the full article or look into them further rn but do we know their political orientation?

    If you are referring to the site itself, Naked Capitalism is a fairly mixed site with authors of varying ideological orientations, I've seen everything from socialist to standard liberal to right wing conservative.

    Yves Smith is a frequent contributor to the site and can be quite hit or miss.

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  • [–] 11 points 6 days ago

    Marandi has been saying that there are ship owners that have secretly paid Iran while also engaging with the us navy but I highly doubt that there is anywhere near pre-war levels of oil coming out of the gulf.

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  • [–] 11 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

    I believe this might be true. A lot of the traffic has been re-directed through other means, though. So yeah, oil is getting through, just not through the strait of Hormuz. The discrepancy in price lies in the fact that there are still major time disruptions, countries are draining their strategic reserves (and need to refill them), and also the insane premiums on shipping insurance & shipping itself.

    This doesn't really mean that Iran's grip is loosening. There really is no way to bypass the strait easily for the time being. Also FWIW, i haven't seen anyone besides kpler actually confirm that flow rates have rebounded past pre-war levels. Seems like a big game of telephone.

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  • [–] 8 points 6 days ago (1 child)

    I saw this video recently: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OETnuwwsv9U

    He has quite a lot of numbers about the flow of oil, and then also how it's used. apparently using small boats that can travel close to the omani cost there is indeed a lot of oil coming out of the stait of hormjs. however the shipping capacity is reduced a lot, and the even bigger problem now lies with refineries. so the catastrophe is still ongoing.

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