Democrats are currently leading Republicans in the RealClearPolling generic congressional average

A blue wave may not be as certain as some polls have predicted, experts warn ahead of Election Day, noting forecasts may be skewed because Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.

While current polls paint a positive picture for Democrats ahead of the midterms this November 3 — some pollsters are questioning whether that number may be inflated due to supporters of President Donald Trump being difficult to reach by pollsters, Axios reported.

Polls previously underestimated Trump’s support during the presidential races in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even though midterm polling is typically more accurate, some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center, told Axios.

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[–] 138 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)
  • [–] 14 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

    That's the moral of the story here. We each control one vote and this is arguably our most important vote in history.

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  • [–] 77 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    In a universe where Donald can win two elections literally anything is possible. His supporters would vote for a wet fart if it was directed at a minority.

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  • [–] 65 points 2 weeks ago (13 children)

    Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.

    Well, that's because they can't read, are too poorly educated to obtain a proper job to afford communication utilities, and/or stubborn. Majority of them are just pedophile criminal racists and enjoy their leaders being the same.

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  • [–] 29 points 2 weeks ago (8 children)

    Trump supporters are also less likely to show up for a midterm, but they conveniently left that truth out of their clickbait.

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  • [–] 20 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

    I'll take it if it scares more people to go out and vote. Never assume anything is in the bag

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    [–] 54 points 2 weeks ago (7 children)

    Leave it to Democrats to fuck up a cost of living mid term with high gas prices and a president in the low 30s approval rating.

    This should be the biggest blow out this century.

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  • [–] 24 points 2 weeks ago

    Oligarchs are the source of the problem. Citizens United means more money supporting the fascists, and control of almost every media outlet means outright fascist propaganda on the "conservative' networks, and minimized support for progressives on the "liberal" networks.

    Establishment Democrats still give us better returns on human rights compared to the fascists, but they do bow to their oligarchal masters pretty well, yes.

    The point is that progressives definitely do not have a majority in the US, much less the supermajority needed to squash fascism.

    It's up to us to deal with our oligarchs and go from there.

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  • [–] 18 points 2 weeks ago* (4 children)

    propaganda works on uneducated people

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  • [–] 13 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    Nobody is immune. You're being constantly bombarded and you're not catching all of it.

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  • [–] 10 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

    there’s no such thing as immune to ideas

    there is definitely an inverse correlation between education and voting against your own interests though

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  • [–] 47 points 2 weeks ago* (18 children)

    Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats in the House, which would give the party a narrow majority. In the Senate, Cook predicts a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats would need four seats to take control of the chamber.

    The current DNC chair is gonna run a fair presidential primary in less than two years...

    No matter what happens the neoliberals will say midterms could have been better and Martin needs to resign. Because neoliberals have no chance in hell of winning a fair primary.

    And if we get a progressive in 2028 into the White House, they pick the next DNC chair in 2029.

    We're on the cusp of some real FDR shit, but neoliberals (as always) will do anything including helping Republicans to stop it.

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  • [–] 12 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    You've been saying this so often and for so long that I'm really curious to see how you're going to try and spin it when the DNC fucks over progressives like they always do. Ken Martin is like the second coming of Jesus to you for some reason.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

    I bet you've never once looked up a bill and checked out the votes to see how Republicans blocked so many of them because the Democrats didn't have enough of a voting majority.

    Do you know why the Public Option was removed from the Affordable Care Act? Because Democrats needed 60 votes, and there were only 58 Democrats elected to the Senate, with 2 Independents voting with them.. 60 exactly - this gave extraordinary power to any Democrat who was against the public option (Joe Lieberman and 5 others). If 6 or more extra Democrats had been elected, the Lieberman 6 votes would have had no power. Or if just 6 Republicans out of the 40 had voted with the Democrats. Ha.

    And in the end, I always see people blaming the Democrats, not the Republicans. Because nobody looks at the actual bills and how they are gutted or defeated because the people won't elect enough Dems to counter the Rep opposition. Shrug.

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    [–] 38 points 2 weeks ago (7 children)

    Turnout is all that matters, and polls anticipate turnout/motivation.

    Always be voting for lesser evil! Rural people get luxury gay space communism voting lines. Seniors/evangelicals always turn out. You better believe that evangelicals hold their nose when they vote for Trump, but Armageddon and Israel worship is part of their programming. If you be voting, then your opinions will matter in the future. If not, then you will be safely ignored, because lemme nazis will remind you the only time politics matter to you, that DNC is shit.

    Seniors now have -21 net approval of Trump down 24 from Oct 24. They may vote against him.

    Rural voters overall have -20 net approval. Down 40 from Oct 24. Rural Republicans still net positive, but 26% disapprove of Trump, and 60% disapprove of Iran war related energy costs. There will be some flips from former, and more abstains from latter.

    Show the fuck up. Protest DNC the next day, and organize next primaries or 3rd party.

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  • [–] 31 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

    There are still way too many people who thing republicans are decent people. Maybe it's because your mother or father is a republican, but that doesn't make republicans good it makes your parents horrible.

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  • [–] 11 points 2 weeks ago

    I live in rural Ohio, the number of signs that are proudly Republican is too damn high.

    I’m always amazed, it’ll just be some guys name and then “REPUBLICAN” and that’s the whole sign, like it’s a good thing.

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    [–] 30 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    I was there in 2016. Ain't nothing in the bag.

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    [–] 25 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)

    I hope that it is a big blue wave and this corrupt lunatic will have a congress with a spine but I am getting 2016 Clinton hubris vibes.

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    [–] 24 points 2 weeks ago* (5 children)

    Right now Dem leaders are crunching the numbers, figuring out how many bribe checks they can cash and still win 51% of the vote, or 50.00001%, even better. Their best political strategists are ON IT. Just like in the last election. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Not a single. effing. thing.

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    Republicans just really wanna use slurs and dont like seeing queer people in public. They're quiet right now while the gas prices are high but they're still gonna vote ref again.

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  • [–] 20 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    The last two DNC picks who lost seemed like they had it in the bag. They also talked about Trump more than they did their own policy.

    They're running the same strategy again.

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  • Yup. Centrists who bitch about "blue no matter who" are wasting their breath. The actual leftists still hold their nose and vote blue anyway. But the things that progressives point out, and that centrists refuse to change, are what cause the centrists to lose their elections. Centrists will bitch about online leftists condemning genocide support, but it wasn't the progressives that caused Kamala to lose. It was mostly moderate and conservative Muslim voters who simply refused to vote for a genocide supporter.

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  • [–] 14 points 2 weeks ago

    No shit. The Dems, as usual, have failed to give the working class a reason to vote for them. They only ever give reasons to vote against their opponent. This strategy fundamentally fails to motivate anybody who isn’t already plugged into politics.

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  • [–] 13 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    Well when you've been trained that voting anything but Republican means you've turned your back to God...

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  • [–] 11 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

    Also a whole lot of men view voting Democratic the same way they view eating plant-based foods. They think it'll turn them into women or something.

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  • [–] 13 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    It's awfully telling that that's a scary thing for them. They don't want to be sentenced to being treated the way that they treat women. They don't want to be "inferior" people. It's also why they're so transphobic. They can't understand why anybody would ever want to give up being a man to become a woman, so they must be getting something out of it, like probably an unfair advantage in sports or to look at women in locker rooms or something. They're incapable of really empathizing with anybody whose life experience is different from theirs, even just with people who are still white and cis and hetero, but are women. So non-white and/or non-cis and/or non-hetero just absolutely does not compute. They think that their simple, privileged, suburban or rural experience is what 95% of the country is.

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  • [–] 11 points 2 weeks ago

    The fear of being similar to a woman drives so much of the manosphere. Looking back on things like Gamergate, it's very easy to see how many angry young men there were - driven to complete frothing rage because of a woman journalist? I mean, what the fuck are we even doing here?

    But I do think some of it is pretty easy to see - lots of fragile men who no longer do "real jobs", if they have regular employment at all, and in many cases, they have less education than their female peers. Also, women are not as dependent on them, financially, and so the dating scene seems out of balance to the historic "norm" they think it should be.

    So they resort to all this stupid performative nonsense - and it really is nonsense - performative meat-eating, preparation of meat (smokers, barbeques, grills, etc.) and talking about "protein" all the time is one of the strongest indicators of just how stupid things have become. It serves as a fantastic proxy for a lot of it, if you ask me. Of course, it tends to cluster with other stupid behaviors like driving enormous vehicles modified to "roll coal" on other drivers, bikers, pedestrians, etc. Oh, and of course, performative gun ownership and voting Republican...

    This is supposed to be masculine? Do they know the most petite, fragile and girly of women can do all these things, too?

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  • [–] 12 points 2 weeks ago

    Vote as though your life depends on it, because it fucking does!

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  • [–] 10 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    The only people saying it's "in the bad" are other pollsters. The pollsters should just figure it out between themselves and leave us to do a Democracy.

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  • [–] 8 points 2 weeks ago*

    It's not the pollsters...

    It's people writing opinion pieces about polls.

    Like always tho, it's important to remember a billionaire can pay for 100 polls and publish the 1 that agrees with them.

    Like, from the article the polls and question are already counting Republican responses more, and at least one of the pollsters is a "Republican pollster:

    “I think it’s telling that we’re hanging our hopes on ‘The polls are wrong,’” Republican pollster Brent Buchanan told Axios. “That’s not very strong.”

    And he flat out said "our only hope is this isn't real"

    The only thing Republicans love more than being victims is being winners, if they think Dems are going to win state races, they'll invent reasons not to vote. Otherwise they'd have to vote and lose, they'd rather not "play".

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  • [–] 10 points 2 weeks ago

    They can win a majority but it won't do much, and then people will get mad they didn't fix everything they don't like and swing back to maga in '28. The road to Idiocracy is paved with repeating bad choices.

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  • [–] 8 points 2 weeks ago

    Lol. It never is.

    Wtf is so confusing to everyone else though? Your wife beating neighbor isn't suddenly going to see the light. That person gets just as many rights as the rest of us.

    The system is broken. The US cannot stand as a singular country anymore. The world is always going to fight and it's not always going to be our responsibility to police it. I don't want to be Team America World Police. Let this place gooooooooo. Let these territories make laws that better fit their societies instead of playing two sides of the same coin for eternity.

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  • [–] 8 points 2 weeks ago

    all those in PA remember one thing. If you vote for Frank Pastella and the rest of the republicans, you vote to let Pastella rape your kids. Vote no to Republikkkans like Frank Pastella to keep their dicks outside of your children's bodies.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 weeks ago

    I voted (whether or not it will "get lost" before arriving or somehow be invalid is yet to be seen), and everyone else who can should as well; I don't care what any pollsters are saying.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 weeks ago

    My optimism for the midterms are bigger than the sun, and smaller than a grain of rice at the same time.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 weeks ago* (9 children)

    There should be a website about politicians, their history, their policies, what they actually voted for versus their stance. The democratic party has proven they're one side of the same coin, but there are still people out there trying to make a change.

    Charles Crist is a prime example of being a Repulicrat and a Democran.

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    [–] 7 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

    Democrat old guard will fight it tooth and nail. Vote early so you can hide MAGA momma's car keys on election day or unhook MAGA dad's car battery (and disconnect and hide the terminal wires too). Or just relax that day if you're fortunate enough to not have those types in your life.

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