FortyTwo

joined 1 month ago
[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 4 points 5 hours ago

Probably many greedy reasons, but my personal favourite speculation: annexing Greenland surrounds Canada and stops any potential aid by its NATO allies in case of an invasion, since annexing Canada is one of the stated objectives of the US now.

In terms of strategy for actual national security, they already got all the access they wanted, if they wanted more all they had to do was ask. If they're the ones doing the attacking of a common ally, though, they wouldn't get that access. So it's only of added strategic value to annex instead of maintaining the alliance if the goal is to attack members of the alliance.

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 16 points 1 week ago

Ukraine has one of the strongest militaries in Europe. This whole "they couldn't even beat puny Ukraine" line I keep seeing is entirely too haughty for my liking. Their gear is less state-of-the-art, sure, but many European countries lack vital components of a functional military altogether. Including logistics and coordination of joint efforts which the Americans have until recently been doing.

Sure, no need to panic yet, but certainly a need to get a move on and actually respond proactively to make up for gaps, and respond jointly, to ensure that it's not going to be a matter of small countries getting steamrolled one by one.

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 8 points 1 week ago

Korean democracy is not dead yet!

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 32 points 1 week ago

Me, checking what the damage is: oh good, my European defence stocks went up 2 to 4 percent today while the American stocks are tanking, happy days!

Me, after thinking on it a bit longer: oh God, my European defence stocks went up while the world economy is taking a hit, better get ready for whatever's coming

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 16 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

While you are staying, your productivity is fueling the economy, and the taxes you pay go to the government you dislike. If you flee, that's a big economic difference you're making over the years. I guess if you fight symbolically but non-pragmatically and get arrested, they have to feed you and house you in a prison which will cost a little extra, but compared to your non-productivity that's just a small bonus. Fleeing also means you get to proactively contribute to competitors and reward them for being a better place to live, which in a way doubles your economic impact. There's a reason the Berlin wall was built and North Korea executes 3 generations of the families of defectors. People are valuable, and they can't afford to lose too many of them.

On the other hand, if your threshold for fleeing is too low, there are no competitors to support, because every country has their issues, and some may be at a risk of the same developments as the country you're fleeing from, making it a pointless exercise. And your loved ones could be essentially hostages that can be used to make you stay.

So it kind of depends, but at least the cowardice argument seems pointless to me. Pragmatic small-scale effectiveness tends to beat symbolic perfectionism at making an impact.

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 9 points 3 weeks ago

While nice, this seems at odds with the budget cuts to science that are horribly undermining our existing, high-quality scientific institutions. It would be much nicer if luring these US-based scientists were an addition to a larger package to invest in, rather than cut and destroy, science in the country.

We could certainly use the help, so they'd be very welcome, but if we're still getting rid of hundreds of fully set up scientists while gaining a few new ones from this, that's still a net loss...

Plus, any US-based scientist who might consider doing this would surely look at these budget cuts, see how countries like France and Germany are actually investing in scientific infrastructure, and take this into account when selecting a destination. If you want to "lure" people over, you do need to have an actual high-quality and functional system to show off.

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 7 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Though I like the spirit and intended message, so I don't want to be too negative, I'm not personally too fond of this approach. Like you said, everyone can make their own considerations; I'll add mine in case you find them interesting.

A big obstacle that often comes up with joint European plans is that every country wants their own local companies to benefit. This has long been a problem with defence (though hopefully a bit less so now), everyone wants to do a little bit of everything, which often ends up with them doing it poorly, while the EU also misses out on the benefits of scaling up. Or from the perspective of consumers, it's why we don't have a proper European alternative for Netflix, but instead dozens of "meh" national subscription services. For food, it can be complex; on the one hand it's good for the environment to reduce transportation emissions, on the other hand, transport is often a negligible part of the emission cost of produce compared to other factors (but not always). So it's often better to import produce from countries where it grows well, than buying locally from producers who use costly (financially or environmentally) methods.

It can get quite complex quite quickly. I'd say let's consider local products as good options with potential advantages and disadvantages, but don't necessarily view them as superior to other EU products. And let's avoid falling into the trap of expecting direct national benefit from every individual EU initiative (not saying you specifically OP, just a general point).

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

I guess I'm not growing old

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

One caused by counting on internal division in the EU, the probability of which increases when we fail to have a unified response right now. Basically just gambling that countries like the Netherlands won't be willing to defend, e.g., a Baltic country. Russia could certainly beat the militaries of small Baltic states one by one, if it is breaking even with Ukraine. No joint response would mean selling out member states and effectively disabling the whole concept of the EU. Joint response would mean war for everyone.

I would prefer a future that minimises the probability of this gamble being made, and nobody gets invaded.

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 0 points 1 month ago (3 children)

I suppose this is karma for me getting too excited about European unity getting a massive boost as a silver lining to the state of the world. My own country is joining Hungary in attempting to sabotage it.

This is not the time to make an ideological show to your populist national electorate. If this doesn't get implemented properly and the newfound unity is not credible, the continent and the EU will be faced with war. Which, if that on its own is not convincing enough, also tends to be somewhat suboptimal for fiscal stability and the economy.

[–] FortyTwo@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

I remember a few weeks ago Dutch pension funds sold all their Tesla stock because they felt it wasn't a safe investment anymore. The decision was laughed at on reddit because Tesla still went up a little bit after that, clearly it was a political choice and the uncertainty was just an excuse, surely the Dutch people would be annoyed that politics cost them big gains on their pensions, etc etc.

I feel vindicated. Let's see how low it can go!

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