darkcalling

joined 4 years ago
[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 18 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

I want to just put out there that I can see Iran being successfully destroyed. Done Syria/Libya style.

The west has moved a lot of things into position for this.

And frankly, let's recall Iran isn't run by pragmatic, thoughtful people who grew up in the USSR education system like Russia, it isn't run by Marxists like China or the DPRK. Iran is run by theocratic, reactionary, religious fundamentalists. Many of their religious policies like the mandatory hair-covering are unpopular with much of the younger society. That is an inherent, deep, deep, deep disadvantage in short and long-term planning, it is a problem because it makes them unpopular with their people because of their hard line on certain things. And given many young people in Iran have grown up never knowing the Shah it'll be very easy for them to slip into thinking they can make peace with the west, or that they should join the west or at least not defend the current rulers of their country. Add on the fall of Syria, the amount of jihadists they can deploy as in ISIS puppet groups, kurds, etc into Iran as their proxies to carry out assassinations, to carry out attacks, to demoralize the society and gather intelligence, it's a really sticky situation.

Fact is the zionists have been murdering a lot of top people in Iran very successfully. Their intelligence and likely penetration of the Iranian military is extreme and an extreme problem. They seem to know where to hit down to the day or time of day to kill these people and the Iranian air defenses are not stopping them. They don't have control of their airspace, they don't have air dominance like Russia does.

Given that and nothing else besides the recent string of victories of the zionists and the US need to cement complete control of the middle east/west Asia for their coming confrontation and cold war against China I think it's very plausible. It's depressing to think about but I think they're not as strong as they present themselves as. That doesn't mean they're as weak as the zionists or US present them as but people trot out the Millennium challenge thing and that was back in 2000, Iran has suffered a lot under sanctions since then and the doctrines of warfare have changed a lot, drone warfare for example including on the seas has matured and evolved and it's possible NATO capabilities in that area plus area denial weapons would be enough to destroy Iran in a naval fight and negate the advantage of all their small swarms of missile boats. You have to remember that challenge was in an era where it assumed old school 90s carrier battlegroups with a carrier or two, destroyers, various support ships, and a few helicopters and planes. Not with that plus tons of drones operated by people in pajamas in Germany and Tel Aviv all coordinated together.

The whole "the zionist entity is on the verge of collapse" thing so repeated here honestly comes across as copium/hopium blend based off propaganda and what we would rather be true. Objectively they've scored so many geopolitical and strategic wins from Syria falling to western puppets to Nasrallah's assassination, Hezbollah's stand-down (because Syrian supply lines were cut), the pager attacks, the Gaza genocide carried out so far and opposition to that viciously crushed all across the west, etc.

Ultimately most people here are hope-casting, or doom-casting. There is the fog of war that will not lift until the smoke has cleared and by that time the situation will likely have been decided in one direction or the other. The Iranians are likely to lie about successes and downplay failures. The zionists are likely to hide the Iranian successes and downplay their own failures. I don't pay any attention at all to western imperialist propaganda "reporting" on this and haven't since the genocide flared up really as I can't stand them so I'm not really influenced by zionist claims just by the facts on the ground, the history of who momentum is with (the zionists sadly), and other factors like that.

Optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect. The west still has a lot of strength and I fear I see a grander plan unfolding successfully. China's long-game approach to non-interventionism for example means tons of western interventions and securing the rest of the world against them by coups, wars, color revolutions, "moderate rebels", etc early on in the game right now might blunt their ability for success by the time they are ready to do that and strong enough to do that. I don't know the right moves, I just know we shouldn't underestimate them and their power at this point.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 16 points 11 hours ago

The problem is the US sends in most important things by air.

I don't think the US put hellfire missiles on a slow-ship to the zionists. Destroying the docks will only prevent delivery of goods too big to put on USAF transport planes. I'm pretty sure all the bombs in the NATO arsenal can fit in those, any munitions, usually a good number per plane delivery can fit there. Not sure if the US can supply air defense systems in those planes but I think the zionists have enough of that and just need refills more than anything else.

Let's recall this is the nation that did the Berlin airlift, a massive middle-finger fuck-you we can just supply everything by air because we have that much capacity, that much logistical power, that much money we can just burn it doesn't even matter. So I'd say sadly short of them destroying all airfields capable of taking AC-130 type transports there isn't a lot Iran can do to stop the US resupply.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 21 points 19 hours ago

Yes but sadly only in a deranged anti-Russian conspiratorial "evil Russian commies led by Putin-Stalin-Hitler are destroying our democracy, we gotta nuke em" type way not a loss of faith in liberalism or introspection about what America is type way.

I'm sorry to go to Star Wars posting but there is something to be said about the understanding that the rebellion failed to win the peace because they just reproduced and tried to bring back the same failed republic which predictably failed again. These liberals are just trying to reproduce and bring back some imagined working, utopian version of liberalism and US-American political structure they imagine existed in the 20th century until around Obama and the big reactionary tantrum and/or Trump winning. They will inevitably not roll anything back meaningfully because Democrats aren't interested in using power first of all and also because they have no revolutionary program they could use to do that so they'll win elections again then be confused and angry and ever more conspiratorial about foreign enemies such as Russia/China as to why they can't get things to go back to the good old days.

It's a reflected image of American reactionary thought, really a different strain of reactionary "return" type yearning and propaganda which will be used to justify rigid adherence to militarism, imperialism, etc because those are still strong "institutions" in the American sense and they have been taught and still venerate them and believe in venerating them those institutions will save them from the scary Trump types and their imagined Putin/China foreign antagonists.

This conveniently leads them right into red scare type thinking and fearful belief in anything the military-intelligence propaganda mill pushes about other nations. It's an antibody being created against increased exposure to how good things are in China and how bad things are in the US. A way to get them broadly onboard with censorship of any positive coverage of "bad nations"[tm] on the internet and the creation of an American firewall and internet censorship board to keep Americans in the dark or as they would phrase it "protect them from sinister Russian/Chinese disinformation campaigns" which they believe can sway elections and turn ordinary otherwise good folks into dangerous types who want to turn America into a dictatorship.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 2 points 1 day ago

People have got to stop posting fake news here. It was all over here and lemmygrad yesterday.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 2 points 1 day ago (3 children)

TBH these claims seem a bit like war propaganda for the Iranian side.

Until we get some real proof I'm kind of skeptical.

We still haven't gotten proof of that woman pilot they claimed they captured for instance. Why hasn't she been paraded in front of the cameras? The photos shown for the alleged wreckage have been AI or not what's claimed so far.

At this point if the Iranians got hit bad and their nuclear facilities are damaged (likely given claims of radiation leak in one) and they want to make peace with the zionists after some missile hits it helps with their own population to be able to claim that they did things like this and then use some AI to fake up the proof. It also means less humiliation that their air defenses may be very ineffective against the zionists. I mean imagine the repercussions if it were true that their air defenses are still unable to take down any of the zionist intruders? It would look really bad. The first 8 hours they get a kind of pass on for being hacked and electronic warfare taking it down but what if they've been firing blind since then and still aren't scoring actual hits? People would be angry and there would be demands for heads to roll. Make up some lies like this however and the anger remains directed at the zionist entity and maybe some people keep their jobs.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

AirVPN has port forwarding. If you're using it for torrenting they're a good choice. You can have several reserved ports I think, just make sure to set your client to the port you get.

They often have sales so around and through the 1-4th of July they might have a "summer" sale or something. Black Friday is another time they always have sales. On sale you can probably get 2 years for $90 so you might want to consider buying only 6 months or something at this time and then re-upping during the sale.

I'll state for the record that I don't think any VPN should be trusted for truly sensitive things that interest intelligence agencies. If you're an activist you should consider using a VPN plus tor or l2p but if you're just using this website it's probably fine.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 4 points 2 days ago

Yeah they're in an unfortunately good position. With the fall of Syria to CIA jihadists (are there other kinds?) their supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon have been cut so Hezbollah is not in a good place. Add on that they decapitated Hezbollah by killing Nasrallah and injuring or killing many other top leadership in the pager attackers and their proxy forces and position is not in a good place. The Egyptian side into Gaza is closed so it's hard to say how much further the resistance can fight on there without resupply and they can hardly strike out at the zionists either, only attack them when they enter Gaza and lately they've been sending in ISIS proxy forces instead and killing Hamas who respond to them attacking food shipments with missile strikes. A full war that really weakens the zionists could yet occur but more than likely it would just deplete NATO stockpiles and leave the zionists even more supported and propped up by the west. Iran can't really turn the other cheek here but if it keeps escalating the US/NATO could get drawn into a war with them at which point they're removed from the board for some years/decade as a serious resistance to the occupation and all you have left then is Yemen who without Iranian support may not be able to do as much.

This could also be seen by empire planners as good, as part of isolating China (and Russia to a degree) from oil and petroleum and from using the crossroads that is west Asia to access via land Europe, Africa, etc. Thus geographically isolating both of them and solidifying the US hold on west Asia in the coming confrontation with China where it/NATO tries to pull as many countries into its bloc/sphere as possible in order to isolate, choke, pressure, and cook China.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 20 points 3 days ago

Israel's primary concern is that a nuclear Iran would provide dirty bombs to Hezbollah or other militants and bypass the iron dome.

That's propaganda. Their concern is the same as any unhinged settler nuclear power. Namely they want the right and power to destroy with nuclear weapons their enemies at a time of their choosing without those enemies being able to hit them back. It's the oldest want in warfare and empires: to be able to hit an enemy in a way they cannot hit you back. As genocidal settlers they know deep down the wrong they work and how the region is full of people who rightfully hate them and they fear those people and need nuclear weapons to deter and intimidate them. It's the samson option, the bluff that they can and will take out everyone around them if they fall.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 11 points 3 days ago

that cowardly fucker should have just countermanded Trump, told the national guard to return to barracks

There are a lot of reasons to shit on Newsome and the Dems but picking on something they legitimately even in theory have no power over is not the best choice.

The national guard was federalized. He has exactly ZERO power to stop that. He can't tell them to return to barracks anymore than you can the moment that happens. Once federalized they're under the authority of the federal government and his power over them is overridden as they're effectively acting military under the commander in chief. Regardless of what Fox News says Gruesome Newsome is not a charismatic strongman and they're not going to listen to him when they have other orders.

The law is very clear on this. Look up the Little Rock Nine, another case where in that case the state guard was nationalized and ordered back to barracks against the wishes of a racist governor trying to use them to stop black kids from going to integrated schools. That was angry white people trying to stop black kids from being in school with white kids, if it was that simple they would have done it.

We must strive to build our arguments on solid ground, ground that liberals cannot pick apart. Let's rest our case on how Dems did nothing to prevent this, on the Biden incompetence, on his handlers and Dem media hiding his senility and letting them run him again, on how they funded this, passed laws to enable this and compared to Republicans offer nothing but words to resist. The Republicans are showing right now what you can do with power, the same things the Dems refused to even go near which should be used to make clear to liberals that the Democrats are not on their side, that its kayfabe, that there aren't even any good ones. We can look to Gaza and the genocide there and Bernie and AOC who are supposedly the progressive good ones enabling that, defending that. That's where our case is ironclad.

Same with the cops. The cops are funded by blue states, blue cities. They gave them even more money after BLM and did nothing substantial to force reforms (among other things he could have tried to bully the LA board of supervisors into disbanding the Sheriff dept who even compared to notorious LAPD are just completely out of control and have thwarted all efforts at reform) but they did nothing. They could have left Trump with less friends in blue states but they are not on the side of the people and this can be driven home and there is no riposte possible.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 54 points 3 days ago (2 children)

On his part, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed "Israel" took “unilateral action against Iran,” warning that Tehran should not target the US in response to the Israeli attack.

“Our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for [their] self-defense,” Rubio stated.

“President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners,” he added.

“Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel."

Oh? Word? Cool so it's just between Iran and the zionist entity calling itself 'israel'. So if Iran decides to shoot a bunch of missiles and drones at this entity, US naval forces will not shoot those down or attempt to disrupt their course right? RIGHT? RIGHT?!?! Because that would make you a party to the conflict wouldn't it. Fucking special privilege demanding fucks.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 36 points 3 days ago (2 children)

I mean critical support for Iran of course but why are they so bad at this after all that has happened? After Soleimani, after they got Nasrallah, after the pager attacks, after years of zionist agents on motorbikes machine-gunning their scientists. You'd think op-sec would be higher priority.

They can't stop them from flying their old f-16s or whatever junk the IOF has into their airspace. They can't detect them in time to shelter important people. And worse than that they are so compromised despite knowing in advance for a near fact that attack is imminent via this very means that they can't hide their people properly from these attacks from the air meaning the zionists either have intelligence that knows where they are day to day (possibly hour to hour) and safe locations or that they continued going about their business in the most obvious places despite this threat and knowing they cannot stop it.

I know it's a bit armchair general but if you know you can't stop their air force, you know they're coming to attack you. You even have signals of warning like silly nerds on this site posting about increases in pizza orders at DC places the military planners and late night intelligence meeting ghouls like 6 hours ahead of time. You have the US evacuating personnel from bases and embassies in the region. You should at least shelter the people they're likely to target yes? The top leadership, the scientists? And keep that location a secret.

Honestly the zionists, I hate it, but the zionists have been doing incredible lately for their cause. They've taken out all their enemies save Iran and Yemen and depending on how bad this was and how many top leadership were killed they might have done a lot of damage to Iran. They are objectively in a stronger position than they have been since the modern resistance formed with Hezbollah as part of it.

And I predict Iran's retaliation will not be that spectacular. That the US will shoot down most of it with their advanced aegis cruisers parked off the coast (which is why tactically Iran should target those with their most advanced weapons as they're de-facto combatants but they won't).

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 18 points 3 days ago

It really is a thing that every time the current situation that started on Oct 7 that every time Bibi is in trouble no matter how close to a deal or whatever suddenly there's an escalation from the zionists. They like Ukraine are run by a corrupt and deranged man who knows if the war ends their ass is toast. In the case of the zionist entity this is mostly what the population of settlers want anyways even if it's causing problems for the US (much like Ukraine is causing problems now given the interruptions to war stockpiling for China).

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