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[–] 68 points 3 months ago (30 children)

Moscow’s grinding offensive in eastern Ukraine that is claiming around 1,000 casualties a day for minimal territorial gains could make it dip further into its pool of human resources.

“The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for potential mobilization and is preparing for possible civil unrest in Russia resulting from mobilization,” the US-based think tank said in its latest assessment.

Wow, this is incredible.

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  • [–] 18 points 3 months ago (14 children)

    Why?? What does Ukraine have that they'd so desperately want that they'd send so much population to die and risk a civil war for it?

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  • [–] 27 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    It's partially due to Putin's fear of admitting they can't win.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Why fear? You can just say oopsie, we didn't expect the whole Europe and the west to throw their military might behind Ukraine, obviously we can't fight them all. We did our best! Here are your sons back.

    Probably would be fine. Great even. I'm sure people would love their family back in one piece.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 months ago

    Being able to do that without losing face is one possible theory to why he keeps provoking NATO countries even while his three day special military operation is stalling at day 1609 with no end in sight - if they retaliated and joined in properly, he gets an excuse to stop as to not "continue" to WW3.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    Yeah, that doesn't account for his loss in the opening days, when the NATO nations were clearly preparing to write off the conquest of Ukraine as a terrible thing but do nothing substantive about it.

    Putin wanted to be cemented in history as bringing back a powerful Russia, and now he has an embarrassment. Dude is 73 and knows he has fewer years ahead than behind and it is now or never for his legacy.

    He might not be afraid for his safety or his people, but for his legacy.

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  • [–] 17 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    Ukraine is resource rich and seen as Russia's soft underbelly. Kremlin is also insecure that their access to Sevastopol is only on a leased basis. That's why they took the entire Crimea.

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  • [–] -4 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    That's unironically why the West cares.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 months ago* (2 children)

    Maybe, but declassified documented conversation during the Blair era showed they knew letting Ukraine into either NATO or EU will agitate Russia, and even questioned if Ukraine is even European. But Ukraine insisted they want to join EU, which Russia predictably did not take well.

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  • [–] -2 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Oh, an aside... I just said elsewhere: They’re making Iraq into a Ukraine and putting Amidi in Zelensky’s impossible position. It’s essentially loading the gun, and telling him to put it to his head and pull the trigger, while having another pointed at the base of his skull.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago

    Not sure what you're talking about. Russia is at net territorial loss and Ukraine is decimating the logistical and oil supply of Russia, which is causing Russia not just military setbacks but also straining the civilian infrastructures. Putin also suspended the auction of bonds which signal that Russia could default. And last but not least, the post already shows that Russia is expanding the recruitment to get more Russians which means manpower is getting bad for Kremlin, for a special operation that should have lasted three days.

    Ukraine has far more cards than Iraq has ever had. They are not given a gun to point to themselves, they are not even given any gun to begin with because the West as a collective hesitated to give it all to Ukraine right after the invasion.

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  • [–] 9 points 3 months ago

    Far as I have heard, Ukraine was the industrial and agricultural backbone of USSR.

    Beyond that, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics, notably on Ukraine. They see Ukraine as a key political necessity for resurrecting the power structure that they see as having been lost in the early 90s. Read about UK and US and you'll see a lot of familiar material there in terms of what Russia has actively worked toward.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    Russia's conservatives believe Ukraine harbors elite Nazis who are leading NATO's active attack on Russian sovereignty. It's not unlike American conservatives believing there's a caravan of Mexican migrants coming to rape their women and steal their jobs. If A.) Russia loses in Ukraine or B.) the lie falls apart, the people might wake up from their amygdaline stupor just long enough to realize how much Putin has stolen from the people and destroyed their economy and will string him up Mussolini-style.

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  • [+] -9 points 3 months ago (12 children)

    I find it quite incredible how people form their opinions on the wars their governments are involved in, by laying any trust in hawkish and neoconservative think tanks that are ideologically fully aligned with the most reactionary parts of said governments and financed by the military industrial complex and big corpos.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago* (11 children)

    I find it quite incredible how people form their opinions on the wars their governments are involved in, by laying any trust in groups that are ideologically fully aligned with and financed by the oligarchy of said country.

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  • [–] -5 points 3 months ago (10 children)

    No need to repeat, what I just said.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago (9 children)

    I was talking about you, presumably defending Russia. Apparently there is a need if you still couldn't see that.

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  • [+] -6 points 3 months ago* (8 children)

    I've seen that, but since I didn't defend anyone and my own government is supporting the Ukrainian state, I thought it was a take too dumb to take seriously. Also, most western countries could be themselves labelled oligarchies, so there's that.

    But how come you think I'm defending Russia by highlighting the nature of the source? Are you not interested, where your Russophobic thoughts are produced? Do you think these are trustworthy institutions? If so, why do you think that? If not, is it not important to highlight that these are consent manufacturing sources?

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago* (7 children)

    But how come you think I'm defending Russia by highlighting the nature of the source?

    The comment was just the first thing I saw. Your instance was another big tipoff. Then I looked at your comments. It's not like the comment I responded to is the only thing I can see. You know that, right? You can stop feigning ignorance now.

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  • [+] -9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)

    Still, I haven't defended Russia, that's your own very ignorant misrepresentation based on your prejudices you yourself just listed. You just don't like to hear dissenting opinions regarding this war and that fact alone should make you stop and wonder.

    Also, may I suggest to focus on the substance of the commentary, and not on the messenger? And the substance is: this post's source is a narrative shaping pro-war think tank and you people consume it like it's ice cream.

    When I come across communities like this (especially this one), the black and white thinking and rabid hate towards anything not riling in unison against this evil Pudding guy or Ruzzia is ...it's quite extreme. I like the term westremism, because that's what it is, really.
    People are not accepting anything, that discredits the holyness of the US-European mission to support and usurp Ukraine, while also falling over themselves to eat up every little news reinforcing the negative default towards the enemy, which sure, here now is Russia. But we can play the same game with Palestine, Libanon, Syria, Mali, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran or China ... we could go on. Gobbling up all the hate towards other groups, solely because it's what is being fed to them, or to feel better about the horrific geopolitical conduct of the US and Europe around the world, in case they actually got a faint idea. I implore you to get informed how the West is seen from outside. I'm pointing out this kind of hypocrisy in the hope that some people manage to stop hating, stop confidently trotting their government's pushed narratives and start wondering, what's actually going on.

    But lemmy.world indeed is quite extreme in that regard. All you need to do is point out that the source of this post is a hawkish, neoconservative US based think tank, implying that they have a mission to paint a specific picture, and the crowd goes wild. It's a ridiculous state of affairs.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    You just don't like to hear dissenting opinions regarding this war and that fact alone should make you stop and wonder.

    No, I'm fine with that. I'm not fine with people saying anything critical of Russia is only critical of Russia because it's western propaganda. Your criticism of me here seems to be projection.

    Gobbling up all the hate towards other groups, solely because it's what is being fed to them, or to feel better about the horrific geopolitical conduct of the US and Europe around the world, in case they actually got a faint idea. I implore you to get informed how the West is seen from outside.

    Again, this seems to be projection. If you read through my comments you'll see I'm almost always on the side of the people defending against imperialism. It just so happens that Ukraine is one of these in this case. I also side with Palestine, Lebanon, Venezuela, Cuba, and not with Iran, but against what is being done to them. If you can defend these groups, but you don't see how Ukraine defending itself is right, then you've got something fucked up going on with you.

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  • [–] -3 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 child)

    Projection, alrighty then. Interesting then, how you thought it was important to enter this thread to point out something I did not do for a country I'm not even living in, nor am ideologically aligned with.

    I'm not fine with people saying anything critical of Russia is only critical of Russia because it's western propaganda.

    Dunno, doesn't sound like anything I've said or done. So why are you "not fine" with me?

    If you can defend these groups, but you don't see how Ukraine defending itself is right, then you've got something fucked up going on with you.

    I'm sure we have different understandings of what imperialism actually is. You think Ukraine is defending itself against the imperialist Russia, governed by "a modern emperor fighting an endless war because admitting defeat would look bad", alright. End of story, end of discussion, nothing more to it? World politics explained? Because, I don't understand, how you're trying to make this point, since I've certainly never said, that the Ukrainian state is not defending itself. You're moralizing against a strawman. However, which role, if any, does US and EU imperialism play in Ukraine? Do you support it?

    and not with Iran, but against what is being done to them.

    Why tho? Why no critical support for Iran? After all, the country's being attacked by an imperial superpower. Why do you differentiate here? Maybe we should send them Billions and all the weapons they need, what do you think? Maybe we should send all the other countries Billions and all the weapons they need, what do you think? Why do it for Ukraine but none of the others?

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago*

    I'm tired of this, so I'm not engaging in most of it. I do want to clarify my position on one thing:

    Why tho? Why no critical support for Iran? After all, the country's being attacked by an imperial superpower. Why do you differentiate here?

    Because they are an oppressive regime that violates rights, that I believe people should have, constantly. I do believe they should decide how to handle this for themselves though. I don't know about sending them billions in weapons, but maybe. However, the nations that would do this are doing the opposite, so that doesn't really make sense. It'd be better to just stop attacking them instead of sending them weapons. I believe, just like in Russia (and many other places) that the best solution is the people rising up and deciding their fate for themselves over the elites deciding for them.

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