I dont know if you being right or wrong changes the predictable commercial future.
If you are wrong then the prevailing narrative holds, these companies are subsidising costa to an unprecedented level and a revenue correction is inevitable.
If you're right, the actual (today) cost of tokens is not utterly horrendous compared to pricing... but that raises the question: what in the name of god do we need all the planned but not yet online datacentres for?
I can only think that it is to train and serve frontier models at an increased token cost that is not predicated on capacity based quantisation, and surely that will make the token costs horrendous because all that investment has to create a return somewhere, so a revenue correction will follow.
Best case scenario; the revenue correction arises after efficient open source models are capable of sustaining most commercial activity. Then the world does not need the datacentre buildout that's propping up nvidia etc., (i kinda hope thats already the case). Frontier level models will stroll (have strolled?) on past the point of diminishing returns and will become commercial black holes...