I mean private planes will still fly and there will still be food that goes to waste. People starving isn't because of oil shortages but because the rich won't eat the cost and rather kick people onto the street. Now the fertilizer shortage on the other hand...

People will starve but remember the alternative is total global collapse so embrace your inner Farquad

This is what I likely see happening.

Canada is selling a large amount of their supplies to China and anyone else besides the U.S. right now due to tensions. Alberta already has a separatist movement that has been quietly invaded by bad actors from various U.S. organizations.

I think nitrogen fertilizer made that possible more so than oil

Keep in mind that most energy at the time was mechanical, not electric. Electrification as we know it, even in factories had not taken place yet. We didn't even know how to use solar panels for electricity generation, so at best solar energy was used to heat water. Windmills ran water pumps but were not powerful enough to run any kind of industry. If you wanted heaps of energy you needed to build next to a river and use the flowing water to drive water wheels or similar.

Fossil fuels - oil, coal, gas - are comparably easy centralised energy. Easy to dig or drill for, easy to store and transport and then convert into mechanical and later electrical energy. You could have a coal mine in one place and the refining industry in another, power houses and industry in remote places even. Trains could run on coal and made long distance and large scale transport possible.

While dirty, the industrial revolution would not have been possible without easily accessible coal.

Hydro