Unrelated question but what's your address and when are you usually not at home?

So it goes.

Honestly I haven't been super interested in a demanding game on a while anyway and my 32GB of DDR4 still works.

Yeah this is about more than llms. They're done, or want to be done, doing commerce with the plebs, the bottom 90%. Everything is for the top 10% (already make up 50+% of purchases and spending power, that stat is from 2024 so more now) and B2B.

We get the scraps of the scraps.

Don't worry, they'll be outdated soon. If you mean AI GPUs that is. Those are obsolete once the new gen is out because there are massive generational improvements (particularly amount and bandwidth of memory which is what matters most)

Along with Nvidia (and the RAM manufacturers) requiring people to buy shitloads of components in advance, or they just sell to someone else.

Not only that, if it does crater, your product can still be sold to consumers and businesses like it used to. They have no incentive to change anything.

Certainly you don't invest in more production capacity, if you suspect that demand will crater before your new production comes online.

It's never enough.

So it outpaced the profit margins of scientific publishing? Damn! And that article is from 2020 and cited it as 40% for Elsevier, it certainly went up since but surely not to 90%.

When the AI black hole inverts.

Turns out the invisible hand of the market isn't so much a hand as a single outstretched middle finger.

Where's this free market you speak of? All I see is corruption and corporate welfare.

~2-3 years when the new fabs come online, assuming we're not still spamming new DCs. If we keep spamming new DCs for the next 3 years, then longer.

This is text book market mechanics. Demand rises and so do the prices. As a consequence the demand is somewhat dampened and therefore the market can slowly (!) heal. Due to the shit ton of money that is and can be made, new actors are incentivized to enter the market and existing actors are incentivized to increase their capacity (so no one else jumps in and grabs parts of it).

Now the question is: is it a good sign if such a big number of buyers are willing to throw such an excessive amount of money at you? Probably not, so you might bet on this not playing out in the long run. And the following crash will be hard, because then all the components from the closed data centers would hit the market at the same time with all your backorders going poof.

Dig up that old invoice or receipt if you can since even your ten year old RAM might have a lifetime warranty on it.

Or maybe adding two more digits to the price?

I had the same thought, it's such a terrible way of talking about it. I'm guessing it means one order of magnitude.