The EU froze ~€210bn of Russian central bank assets. Now it plans to use them as collateral to raise ~€90bn for Ukraine without formally confiscating anything.

It’s legally cautious and politically toxic.

Russia calls it theft and is retaliating. Belgium fears lawsuits and eurozone fallout. The US is stepping back. Ukraine is nearly out of cash.

There are no clean options left. Either Europe acts outside its comfort zone or admits it can immobilise money but not wield power.

You gotta do what you gotta do.

 

Good (but scary) overview of state of AI in the og article, some points:

  • The transformation of work by AI is already underway, not a distant future event. The NBER model quantifies this as a potential 366% productivity boost coupled with a 23% employment reduction, with half the job displacement happening within five years. This underscores the urgency of being intentional about how AI reshapes work environments.

  • The future of AI in the workplace favors augmentation over replacement. Most workers prefer AI to automate repetitive tasks and to act as partners or coaches rather than substitutes. Enterprise AI strategies should therefore focus on complementing human skills, freeing teams to concentrate on creative and interpersonal value-driving activities.

  • AI adoption and impact are highly role-specific. While some jobs like logistics management face high automation risks, others like hands-on mechanics remain largely unaffected. Similarly, AI is democratizing expertise by leveling the playing field for freelancers, which challenges traditional premium skill valuations. Effective AI strategies require granular, nuanced understanding of these variations to maximize benefits and mitigate harms.

 

State-sponsored hacking is accelerating. Your industry is next.

  • Cyber specialists from Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) have carried out a large-scale cyberattack against the network infrastructure of Russian energy giant Gazprom, causing significant disruptions, a HUR source told the Kyiv Independent on July 18
  • The attack reportedly affected approximately 390 subsidiary companies and branches, including Gazprom Teplo Energo, Gazprom Obl Energo, and Gazprom Energozbyt
  • The cyberattack allegedly destroyed large volumes of data and installed custom software designed to further damage the company's information systems
 

Before Trump's return to office was secured, I was chatting online with a friend about Putin's strategy in Ukraine. "Putin is playing the long game," my friend observed, "he realizes he cannot win quickly, but he's patiently waiting for a miracle."

"What miracle could possibly save him?" I asked.

My friend's answer seemed absurd then: "Well, Trump could be elected." We both brushed it off as the craziest idea possible—a distant, unlikely scenario.

That dismissal has now turned to a chill of recognition. The "miracle" has materialized.

My friend also pointed out something crucial about Russian warfare that the West consistently underestimates: "Russia knows how to wage slow, grinding wars. They depend on sacrificing humans, which post-Soviet Russia has plenty of." While Western democracies measure war in weeks and political cycles, Putin measures it in years and generations. His strategic patience stems from a fundamentally different calculus of human life.

The recent White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky demonstrated this new reality with startling clarity. What should have been serious diplomacy became, in Trump's own proud words, "great television." The Ukrainian president wasn't treated as the leader of a nation fighting for survival but as a contestant on a reality show—publicly scolded and dismissed without meaningful support.

Yet the European response to this alarming spectacle has been painfully predictable. We Europeans dismiss Friday's event as a mere misunderstanding, a temporary blip in the transatlantic relationship. We continue our decades-long tradition of waiting on bended knee for American salvation. "America is a friend and it will help, for sure. They have promised." "NATO will defend us, how can it not?"

As the old military adage goes: "If you don't pay for your own army, you'll end up paying for someone else's." Europe has long enjoyed the luxury of minimal defense spending while sheltering under America's security umbrella. That bargain, which already showed cracks during previous administrations, now appears to be fundamentally broken.

This outsourcing of security has left Europe strategically impotent at precisely the moment when it needs to stand on its own. Trump's sudden embrace of "peace at any cost" represents everything the Kremlin strategists have patiently awaited. They didn't need to defeat Ukraine militarily; they simply needed to outlast Western resolve. Putin's strategy—trading time and Russian lives for Western fatigue—has paid off. Now, without firing a single additional shot, he watches as his greatest adversary's support crumbles from within.

The evidence of Kremlin influence is no longer subtle. Trump's talking points—from questioning Ukraine's sovereignty to suggesting territorial concessions—echo Moscow's propaganda with alarming precision. What took years of sophisticated disinformation campaigns to seed now flows freely from the Oval Office.

Europe faces an existential choice: step forward immediately to fill America's retreating role or watch as the rules-based order collapses. Each day of European hesitation is a victory for Putin, who has mastered the art of the long game while Western democracies remain trapped in short-term thinking and strategic dependency.

The Ukrainian people, who have endured years of Russian terror, deserve better than becoming pawns in America's domestic political games or victims of Europe's strategic complacency. This humiliating spectacle reveals the cruel calculus of modern geopolitics: principles crumble before personalities, democratic values bow to authoritarian pressure, and what we once dismissed as a crazy improbability has become Ukraine's waking nightmare.

Putin waited for his miracle, and against all odds, it arrived in Washington—proving once again that those who can sacrifice the most and wait the longest often prevail in geopolitics, regardless of moral standing.

While our governments dither in bureaucratic paralysis—or to put it in more direct terms, while they prove themselves utterly useless—we as citizens cannot afford to wait. If this spectacle has shown us anything, it's that relying solely on official channels means accepting defeat by delay.

For every dollar America withholds, let's send two euros. This isn't just a slogan—it's a practical response. If Trump cuts a billion in aid, Europe's citizens should mobilize two billion. Not through our hesitant governments, but through direct action and personal commitment.

Support for Ukraine must become a personal responsibility. There are countless ways to help—donate directly to Ukrainian aid organizations, support businesses that employ Ukrainian refugees, push your local representatives to act even as national governments hesitate, or volunteer your skills, time, and resources.

For a comprehensive list of vetted charities supporting everything from military equipment to humanitarian aid to animal shelters, visit the r/ukraine wiki at https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities/ or simply search online for Ukrainian support organizations. Choose one or two that align with your values and commit to regular contributions.

The question is no longer whether Europe's institutions will step up, but whether its people will. Every euro sent directly to Ukrainian humanitarian efforts or defense funds is a statement that we refuse to be complicit in Putin's waiting game. If our governments won't lead, then we must—from the ground up, person by person, community by community.

History will remember not just what our leaders failed to do, but what ordinary citizens chose to do despite them.

The Denazify Lie (www.rand.org)
submitted 2 years ago by [M] to c/war@group.lt
 

Russian leaders and propagandists have at once denied the existence of a Ukrainian nation and called for purging or cleansing the Ukrainian territory, in terms that often mirror rhetoric preceding past genocides. In this report, the authors seek to shed light on how Russia's extremist, hate-peddling narratives deployed in the war have spread online through social media.

Russian propaganda is making inroads into some of the major European languages—Spanish and German, as well as French and Italian.

REMVE narratives are also finding more-receptive audiences among relatively small linguistic communities in Eastern Europe. Serbian- and Bulgarian-language communities emerge as particularly vulnerable to cross-language and cross-cultural transmission of REMVE messages on both X and Telegram.

However, Russia's ability to successfully mainstream its propaganda and mobilize its audiences against Ukrainians is limited: The most virulent REMVE conversations on these two platforms remain highly Russian-language dominated, are concentrated in specific communities, and do not draw much attention from others in the networks.

Full research report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3400/RRA3450-1/RAND_RRA3450-1.pdf

 

The incoming Trump administration has been supportive of this European initiative. It is consistent with the president-elect's stated desire to disengage the United States from security matters on the continent, and instead have the European Union and the United Kingdom take the lead. But a deployment of European forces to Ukraine will inevitably entangle the Americans. European militaries depend on their U.S. allies for out-of-area operations. Inevitably, a large deployment to Ukraine will once again expose this dependency when they turn to the United States for help with critical tasks such as air lift, logistics, and intelligence that they cannot conduct alone.

 

The Ukrainian military faces critical challenges that demand immediate, honest evaluation:

  • Infantry roles becoming increasingly unsustainable

  • Recruitment system disproportionately burdens vulnerable populations

  • Command structures trapped in outdated bureaucratic frameworks

  • Morale gradually eroding under prolonged combat stress

  • No clear exit strategy for frontline soldiers

  • Commanders prioritizing reporting over human lives

  • Declining Western support momentum

  • Deeply entrenched leadership inefficiencies

Suggested changes:

  • Implement merit-based officer promotion systems
  • Establish fixed, transparent service terms
  • Rebuild trust between military leadership and soldiers

More in the article.

 

According to the article, Danieli continues to operate in Russia despite EU sanctions, collaborating with steel giants like Severstal and MMK, both linked to military production. Danieli reportedly uses its Chinese subsidiary to bypass sanctions, enabling the supply of equipment to Russia. In 2023, its Russian subsidiary’s cash flow increased 35-fold, contradicting claims that the business is unprofitable or disconnected from the military sector. The company’s justification hinges on technicalities, but the financial and strategic realities suggest complicity in sustaining critical industries that support Russia’s war economy. At what point does this move from legal maneuvering to outright enabling?

 

Highlights

The first scaling crisis happened in 1996, when Linus wrote that he was "buried alive in emails". It was addressed by adopting a more modular architecture, with the introduction of loadable kernel modules, and the creation of the maintainers role, who support the contributors in ensuring that they implement the high standards of quality needed to merge their contributions.

The second scaling crisis lasted from 1998 to 2002, and was finally addressed by the adoption of BitKeeper, later replaced by Git. This distributed the job of merging contributions across the network of maintainers and contributors.

In both cases, technology was used to reduce the amount of dependencies between teams, help contributors keep a high level of autonomy, and make it easy to merge all those contributions back into the main repository, Bernhard said.

Technology can help reduce the need to communicate between teams whenever they have a dependency on another team to get their work done. Typical organizational dependencies, such as when a team relies on another team’s data, can be replaced by self-service APIs using the right technologies and architecture, Bernhard mentioned. This can be extended to more complicated dependencies, such as infrastructure provisioning, as AWS pioneered when they invented EC2, offering self-service APIs to spin up virtual servers, he added.

Another type of dependency is dealing with the challenge of merging contributions made to a similar document, whether it’s an illustration, a text, or source code, Bernhard mentioned. This has been transformed in the last 15 years by real-time collaboration software such as Google Docs and distributed versioning systems such as Git, he said.

Anyone trying to scale an agile organization should study lean thinking to benefit from decades of experience on how to lead large organizations while staying true to the spirit of the agile manifesto, he concluded.

 

A strong majority of Americans across the political spectrum sympathize more with Ukraine than Russia in the ongoing war: 62% of respondents express more sympathy with Ukraine than Russia, including 58% of Republicans and 76% of Democrats. At the same time, just 2% of respondents said they sympathized more with Russia in the conflict, including 4% of Republicans and 1% of Democrats. Republicans (20%) were more likely than Democrats (7%) to say they sympathized with neither side, while equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats (5%) said they sympathized with both sides equally.

The percentage of respondents who said they want the United States to stay the course in supporting Ukraine grew from our October 2023 poll, reaching the highest level in our tracking since the spring of 2023. In our latest survey, 48% of all respondents said that the United States should support Ukraine as long as the conflict lasts, including 37% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats. All these numbers are new highs in our four polls since March-April 2023.

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